MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

MLB DW Slate Preview - March 31

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

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Jon A
Mar 31, 2025
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As much fun as opening weekend is, I have come to prefer the first full week of the season more. It’s a total scramble for me over these first few days getting everything working. Things tend to settle down around this time, so I’m ready to lock in for this Monday slate.

We’ve had some great slates already in the MLB DW DraftKings League. I’m pumped about the turnout so far, but typically it dwindles pretty fast. So I’m looking for more people to join! There’s a $5 contest available for tonight with plenty of spots open, if you want to join - click here.


Jon’s DFS Preview

Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow ($10,000) vs. ATL

Most teams are on their SP4 or SP5, but the Dodgers are still rolling out stone cold aces. Glasnow will make his season debut tonight. He last pitched one week ago and threw 73 pitches in a spring game. The projection for tonight is 86 pitches, and he is lapping the field in projected points. He’s a lock for my single lineup.

Ben Brown ($7,500) vs. OAK

Brown has entered the Cubs rotation after being used in long relief in the Tokyo series. He showed his strikeout ability in that outing, posting a 21% SwStr%. Dating back to 2024, he’s posted a 29% K% in the Majors (58 innings). Strikeouts are king on DraftKings, and Brown should be grabbing a handful of those with relative ease. It’s not the safest play in the world, but the projection model is all about it, making Brown the top value play.

Jackson Jobe ($8,800) vs. Mariners

I don’t think I’m going to make this play, personally. The price is awful high for a guy I think could end up as a 23-24% K% guy in the Majors. However, it’s a fantastic matchup in Seattle. He’s a nice GPP play.

Drew Rasmussen ($8,500) vs. Pirates

You know I want to play Rasmussen. He’s one of my big flag-plant guys for this year. The issue is that he’ll probably come in under 75 pitches. The Rays are going to be very careful with him. That leaves the ceiling a bit lower than I’d like for a $8,500 price tag.

Those four are the clear top plays.


Stacks

Cubs vs. Joey Estes

We have our first game in Sacramento, and it’s Joey Estes taking the hill. Estes throws a ton of strikes and has one of the highest fly ball rates you’ll ever see. That is unlikely to play well in his home starts, so I’m thinking the Cubs are going to hit a few dingers tonight.

Plays: Tucker $6K, Suzuki $5K, Happ $4.8K, Busch $4.1K, Swanson $4.4K

Giants vs. Ronel Blanco

Blanco is a fine pitcher, but he does not get many strikeouts, and the Giants once are playing in a park that elevates their projection. It’s a good spot for the Giants, who are all pretty affordable.

Plays: Chapman $4.2K, Adames $4.5K, Ramos $3.5K


Hitters - Top Plays

Kerry Carpenter ($4,200) vs. Emerson Hancock

Hancock has not been good in his Major League career. He does have the home park advantage here, but I’m loading up on Kerry Carpenter. He’s one of the best hitters in the league when facing a right hander, and this is a very hittable righty at that.

Jackson Merrill ($5,200) vs. Luis Ortiz

Merrill has had loads of success against righties like Ortiz in his young career, and he comes in decently affordable here. There are a ton of outfielders to like, so I don’t think I’ll get to Merrill, but he’s in a good spot for a big game.

Ivan Herrera ($3,100) vs. Tyler Anderson

He’ll be in the heart of the lineup against a hittable lefty. I like getting a cheap catcher who is capable with the bat. This is a misprice.

LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3,900) vs. Ronel Blanco

Blanco is brutal against righties, but lefties have a pretty good time against him. This is also a plus spot park-wise for the Giants, as we’ve already mentioned.

Brandon Lowe ($4,400) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski

The Pirates are a mess, and they’re rolling out a (former) mediocre long reliever to start their fifth game. This park the Rays are playing in should be great for lefties, and Lowe is at the top of the lineup against a mediocre righty in this one.


Hitters - Values

  • Alan Roden ($2,000) vs. Soroka

  • Colt Keith ($2,800) vs. Hancock

  • Jung Hoo Lee ($3,800) vs. Blanco

  • Zach McKinstry ($2,300) vs. Hancock

  • Kameron Miisner ($2,400) vs. Mlodzinski

  • Trey Sweeney ($2,500) vs. Hancock

  • Jonathan Aranda ($2,900) vs. Mlodzinski


Automated Slate Preview

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

KC (vs. Elvin Rodriguez): 73.1 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Brady Singer): 71.94 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Kris Bubic): 71.43 Projected Points
NYM (vs. Cal Quantrill): 70.02 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Grant Holmes): 69.21 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

MIA (vs. David Peterson): 52.03 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Chris Paddack): 52.75 Projected Points
COL (vs. Cristopher Sanchez): 55.82 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Drew Rasmussen): 57.39 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Ben Brown): 58.13 Projected Points

Team Projections vs. Season Averages

KC: 73.1 Today, 65.54 Season Average
DET: 67.18 Today, 59.66 Season Average
TEX: 71.94 Today, 65.62 Season Average
SF: 67.38 Today, 62.93 Season Average
NYM: 70.02 Today, 65.78 Season Average

Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
David Peterson: 19.1 Today, 16.16 Previous Max
Ben Brown: 17.72 Today, 16.33 Previous Max
Drew Rasmussen: 15.88 Today, 11.01 Previous Max
Carmen Mlodzinski: 13.39 Today, 7.16 Previous Max
Kerry Carpenter: 10.13 Today, 9.13 Previous Max

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