MLB DW Slate Preview - May 12
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Let’s give the main slate a close look!
Pitchers
Tyler Mahle ($9,200) vs. Rockies
This is probably the #1 possible matchup for an SP, getting the Rockies on the road in their first game off a homestand. Mahle’s season has been going in the wrong direction (zero strikeouts in his last outing, a 6.2 K-BB% in his last three), but this matchup rights all wrongs. The Road Rockies have a team strikeout rate north of 28%. They don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA above .350 against right-handed pitching since last season.
The price has been elevated for Mahle. And I’d usually be completely opposed to paying this kind of price for a guy with a 19% K% on the season, but this matchup makes the elevated price make a lot of sense - and there isn’t a ton else to like at SP tonight. And the model agrees. We have Mahle for a slate-leading 21.0 projected DraftKings points (at a slate-leading 29% ownership, mind you).
I do think he’s a reasonable fade in a GPP situation. There’s absolutely no guarantee of a 6+ strikeout game, so he could be a relative bust at the high price and high ownership, but yeah, I’m into Mahle tonight.
Michael King ($9,500) vs. Angels
The Angels are the only team in the league with a higher team K% than the Rockies. They’re up there at 27.1% this year. Against righties, it’s 26.6%. So this is a good spot for King to rack up some punchies.