MLB DW Slate Preview - May 14
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
We’re going to take a good look at the DFS slate tonight. Let’s go through it!
Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) vs. Athletics
Yamamoto, I would say, is the lone true ace on the board. But he’s expensive. I mean, he’s really expensive for this slate. The second-most expensive arm is $1,000 less. I don’t really think Yamamoto for $10,500 is a fantastic play, but he’s clearly the best shot to lead the slate in points. And it’s a fine matchup with the Athletics, especially because Yamamoto’s specialty is limiting homers, which is really the main threat of the Athletics’ lineup. But I’d say he’s a tough fade in cash since we don’t have any other truly reliable options here.
Jameson Taillon ($8,500) vs. Marlins
Taillon has just an 18.7% K% since last year, and that’s a problem. But everything else is pretty good. He doesn’t walk hitters (4.9%), and the contact hasn’t been an issue (.318 xwOBA). The Marlins are a good matchup, and Taillon has a great shot at the win bonus tonight (CHC -225). It’s hard to pay $8,500 for a guy with this low of a strikeout rate, but there are not many other options on the board. And the model likes Taillon tonight. He’s the #2 value, but really, he’s the top guy because we’re not really going to consider Antonio Senzatela even at $5,000.
Nick Lodolo ($8,700) vs. White Sox
Lodolo’s strikeout rate has fallen quite a way this year. He’s at just 19% for the year with an 11.3% SwStr%. But eh’s kept the ball away from the barrel of the bat, allowing just a .639 OPS. And he’s throwing a ton more strikes this year (3.6% BB%). That’s a recipe for success against a light-hitting White Sox lineup.
Chris Bassitt ($9,500) vs. Rays
It’s still way too much money to pay for Bassitt. But in the context of this slate, it might be a proper play. He has one of the highest K% of pitchers on the slate this year (25%), and the SwStr% (12.1%) does back up the idea of him at least staying around 22-23%. The Rays aren’t a tough opponent, and this game is in Toronto - a big bonus for the pitchers. I could see playing Yamamoto and Bassitt in cash. It’s a ton of money to pay for them, but they both do bring solid floors to the table.