MLB DW Slate Preview - May 1st
We turn the page to May and we begin to make a profit
Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
FREE CONTENT FRIDAY! This article is totally free, but become a paid member to get all of our articles daily. Or join as a PRO member to get the daily projections and every single DFS/betting tool we have all season long.
BETTING & DFS TOOLS TUTORIAL
Recorded a walk-through of some of the daily tools focused on DFS & betting or other daily market-based prediction games. Nothing new here, just explaining the tools that are out there for you to use and giving some tips on how to use them along the way. Check that out here:
Weather
Weather Report from PropFinder Here
I also have the weather report on the Hitter Projections sheet and the web app, that’s a little bit of a simpler look at it:
It’s cold in Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. Boost the pitchers there.
The wind is coming in for the Wrigley Field game. Boosting Colin Rea and Zac Gallen. So that’s cold temps + wind coming in. Not a good spot for home run hitting this afternoon.
Pretty nice hitting weather for the Guardians/Athletics game. 76 degrees with moderate winds going sideways.
I wouldn’t react to wind, generally. Single-digit winds aren’t usually significant, and it’s not like we can exactly predict how that’s going to go anyway.
Game Info
Full Report Updated Constantly Here
The top implied offenses on the main slate:
Braves in Coors vs. Quintana
Yankees vs. Cade Povich
Dodgers vs. Liberatore
Red Sox vs. Burrows
Athletics vs. Cantillo
Mets vs. Urena
Hitter Projections Above Average
I talked about it in the video, but this is on the APP and it does this daily, to take the player’s average DK projection from 2025-2026 and compare it to what we have today.
Mickey Moniak is the top guy tonight. And that’s because his base skill projection is a lot better this year compared to last, since he’s been steadily dropping his strikeout rate. But he’s also at home against a righty in Grant Holmes, which is the perfect spot to play Moniak in. And the projections reflect that, liking him a ton more tonight as compared to the average situation he’s been in the last two seasons.
Check that out on the web app every day, gives you a good idea of what players to target or fade in whatever game you’re playing.
Pitcher Projections Above Average
You can hit the “Show Projection Highlights” slider on the pitcher projections to see this. It will show you the top projections WITH PICTURES as well as their comparison from today against what they’re usually projected for (2025-2026).
DFS Main Slate Preview
PITCHERS
COLE RAGANS $8,300 at SEA
The toughest stud pitcher to understand! He walked eight two starts ago, and then went for an 11:0 K:BB last time out.
Will you get two points tonight, or will you get 40? I can’t say for sure, but at $8,300 in a spot where strikeout potential is plentiful (at Seattle), I’d like to get some DFS shares. If you’re a cash game grinder, you probably want to stay away.
And I won’t be home this evening to adjust multiple lineups, so I think I’m going to be a cash game grinder tonight with one lineup just looking to maximize floor and hope for the best. Nothing quite like throwing out $100 in head-to-heads into the lobby, grinding out every bit of value, and then waking up the next morning to a three-dollar profit.
VERDICT: TOURNEYS
ZACK WHEELER $9,500 at MIA
Man, $9,500 for Wheeler this fast! He did have a 17.9% SwStr% with a 33% Ball% in his first start. He generated 15 whiffs on 84 pitches. The fastball averaged 94.7. Which is higher than I thought it might be, but it’s not near the upper-90s like we saw before the injury.
His Stuff+ was 103.9 (102.2 on FF, 103.0 on SI, 116.5 on the CU). So he looked good. I just don’t know if I can count on him to be $9,500 good.
VERDICT: FADE
WILL WARREN $8,900 vs. BAL
This is good:
This is bad:
This is good:
A 31% K% against lefties is unheard of for Warren. But it’s just an 8.6% SwStr% against them with a .339 xwOBA. I think he’s been lucky.
Pitch mix stats vs. LEFTIES:
I have no idea where the striekouts are coming from. None idea, zero. The idea does not exist.
VERDICT: FADE
BRYAN WOO $9,000 vs ROYALS
Career Splits:
Woo at home: 3.23 xFIP, 28.7% K%, 3.2% BB%
Woo on road: 4.49 xFIP, 21.6% K%, 6.8% BB%
I can’t explain all of that. I don’t believe in splits as much as most people. He has a .231 BABIP at home and a .260 mark on the road. How could that make any sense?
The theory could be about lighting or the batter’s eye or something. Maybe guys just can’t see the ball, and that turns into weak contact when they aren’t whiffing.
But the home/road splits are stark even this year (3.06 xFIP at home, 5.39 on road).
The Royals aren’t a great lineup, we can at least say that much. So it’s a fantastic spot for Woo!
VERDICT: CASH CONSIDERATION
EMMET SHEEHAN ($8,700) at STL
The Cardinals are coming off of a nice series where they beat up on the Pirates. They have some decent hitters. Wetherholt is as advertised, Burleson has been his normal self, and Ivan Herrera swings a good bat as well. Jordan Walker has been elite and he’s been bad this year. But he’s definitely a threat.
Sheehan overall has a strong 15.3% SwStr% and a find 17% K-BB%.
I’m not sure if it matters, but he’s coming off of his best start of the year by far where he struck out ten Cubs in six strong innings with a 20.8% SwStr% and a .215 xwOBA allowed.
If he was $7,700, I think it would be a cash smash. But for $8,700 in a middling matchup, I’ll look ato avoid it for this one-lineup night I’m having. But his upside is certainly, certainly worthwhile for tourneys. And he’s a large favorite as it usually goes with LAD SPs.
I suppose I should boost up Will Warren a bit from what I said before. He’s at -194, and he’s a guy who gets through five innings most of the time. So the win boost is there for him.
SHANE McCLANAHAN ($8,200) vs SF
Good matchup for Shane.
His 25% K% is good, but not elite. The problem is the lack of command with a 12.9% BB% and a 36.4% Ball%. But he’s walked just two in the last two outings, and his velo has been up:
But it’s not high velo. This guy used to throw 97-98, and he’s stuck around 95 this year.
The Giants, though, are hitting .245/.290/.362 this year with a 6.7% Brl%. Against lefties, it’s .255/.299/.368 with a 9.0% Brl%, so a bit better there.
I’m fine with McClanahan in a tourney, but he’s far from a priority play for me. I just don’t think he’s a high strikeout guy any more, and the command is questionable at best.
VERDICT: TOURNEYS ONLY, LOW PRIORITY
ROBBIE RAY ($9,300) at TB
The Rays have just five homers and a .678 against lefties this year (334 PAs). But they make plenty of contact (20% K%). They’re one of the highest contact teams in the league, but one of the lowest in the power department.
Ray at $9,300… it’s just too expensive. He’s not that good anymore.
VERDICT: TOURNEYS ONLY, LOW PRIORITY
EURY PEREZ ($8,000) vs PHI
He’s another guy with home/road splits. For his career:
Home: 3.64 xFIP, 30.6% K%, 7.8% BB%
Road: 4.72 xFIP, 25% K%, 9.3% BB%
In 31.1 innings, he’s given up 14 walks (10.3% BB%) and six homers (1.72 HR/9). Against the Phillies, that’s scary enough to keep me off of him in cash. But I love him for tourneys.
VERDICT: GREAT TOURNEY PLAY
CHRISTIAN SCOTT ($6,200) at LAA
It’s been eight days since Scott pitched, and that was when he walked five in 1.1 innings against the Twins. I think Scott is decent, I think the Angels are a good matchup in DFS, and I love the price.
But no, he’s not in cash consideration. For tourneys, though, he’s a viable salary saver. I do think he can grab 15 points here.
MLB DW PROJ: 16.5
THE BAT X PROJ: 13.3
I’d prefer to keep my cash picks to guys that both models like. And that’s not the case with Scott.
GRANT HOLMES ($7,300) at COL
Can’t do it in Coors.
GERMAN MARQUEZ ($6,300) vs CWS
Really, really good matchup here. The White Sox strike out a ton, and if you can avoid the homer, you’ll be fine in most cases. But Marquez is really bad.
His max this year is 13 whiffs and five strikeouts. Can’t go there even in this plus spot.
VERDICT: FULL FADE
MIKE BURROWS ($7,000) vs BOS
Burrows has a 15:5 K:BB the last two starts with a 13.5% SwStr%. He’s walked five in those two starts, but his 8% BB% for the season isn’t a concern.
The Red Sox are scuffling bad. They’re a very good matchup for pitchers. But can we really go to Burrows in cash?
I don’t think so, but I’m running out of options here! For tourneys, sign me up. I think Burrows is decent.
VERDICT: TOURNEY TARGET
JOEY CANTILLO ($7,400) at ATH
The Bat X gives this dude eight points… eight! My model is at 17 points. I think we’re both well off the mark, but dang… that’s a wild difference.
Cantillo is a lefty, which is good against Nick Kurtz and the A’s. But his fastball is so, so garbage.
I’m including him in the tourney pool because he can have this start where the changeup just feasts on dudes. But it could go horribly as well since he’s so bad at getting strikes and being efficient.
VERDICT: SLIGHT TOURNEY INTEREST
CADE POVICH ($7,700) vs. NYY
Not a good price on Povich. I’m surprised it’s this high. Brutal spot against the Yankees.
But he did have 17 whiffs last time out. The guy doesn’t have a good fastball, but it’s been okay in this small sample this year, and the curveball is very good.
He’s another tourney guy to throw in. But I don’t think you need any shares.
VERDICT: SLIGHT USAGE IN TOURNEYS
WALBERT URENA ($6,500) vs HOU
Sinker velo came down a bit last time, but still held up at 97.6mph. It’s a wicked pitch. In four outings, he has a 22% K%, which is fine, but a horrifying 43% Ball%. He’s a ground and pound dude, and that can turn into some Jose Soriano style spike outings. But you can’t consider him for cash.
VERDICT: PROBABLY A FULL FADE
So what are we left with? Not much. I guess I’m on Bryan Woo in cash, that much is clear from my investigations above.
The second guy, though?? I mean The Bat X would probably say Zack Wheeler or Will Warren. I just don’t agree with that.
Unless I’m way too down on Wheeler. If he were like $8,600, I’d consider it. I’m just not thinking I want to pay $9,500 for the dude.
Maybe I’ll get a bit risky and bet on Cole Ragans ($8,300). That would give me two pitchers in that SEA/KC game, limiting my wins upside. But it does raise the chances of getting one win, since somebody has to win that one. Not one of the starters, necessarily, but you get it.
CASH VERDICT: WOO & RAGANS
TOURNEY POOL: WOO, RAGANS, RAY, McCLANAHAN, EURY, SHEEHAN, BURRO
TEAM STACKS
BRAVES vs. JOSE QUINTANA
They project six points above the second-best team in this slate. And that’s what Coors Field will do for you when you have a decent lineup. Quintana has an 11% K% and a 13.4% BB%!! He’s very bad, this might be the best spot of the year for putting some Braves into the lineup.
We certainly want some of that lineup in our cash lineup.
GUARDIANS vs. JT GINN
As I keep saying, Ginn’s ground ball rate makes him tougher to stack against like crazy, even in Sacramento. But he’s not good at anythign else, and Cleveland gets a lot of balls into play.
Their floor points is pretty nice with the walks and base hits they can rack up. But I don’t think their ceiling is anything special.
ROCKIES vs. GRANT HOLMES
Lefties can really crush Grant Holmes. They have a .362 xwOBA against him this year.
Those lefties to target:
Edouard Julien $4,200
Mickey Moniak $4,500
TJ Rumfireld $3,600
Troy Johnston $4,000
YANKEES vs. CADE POVICH
Again, I think Povich is underrated. But he’s given up a high 1.3 HR/9 in the Majors with a 22% K% and a 9% BB%. Walks and homers - not a good problem to have in the Bronx.
HITTER PLAYS
CATCHERS
Top:
Drake Baldwin ($5,800) vs. Quintana
Shea Langeliers ($5,500) vs. Cantillo
Hunter Goodman ($4,900) vs. Grant Holmes
Will Smith ($3,800) vs. Matthew Liberatore
Punt:
Bo Naylor ($2,600) vs. JT Ginn
FIRST BASE
Top:
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) vs. Liberatore
Bryce Harper ($4,500) vs. Eury Perez
Matt Olson ($5,700) vs. Quintana
Punt:
Kyle Manzardo ($2,900) vs. JT Ginn
Eric Wagaman ($2,000) vs. Urena
SECOND BASE
Top:
Fernando Tatis ($5,000) vs. Schultz
Ozzie Albies ($4,900) vs. Quintana
Daniel Schneeman ($3,400) vs. JT Ginn
Punt:
Travis Bazzana ($3,000) vs. JT Ginn
THIRD BASE
Top:
Jose Ramirez ($6,200) vs. JT Ginn
Austin Riley ($4,700) vs. Quintana
Junior Caminero ($5,000) vs. Ray
Punt:
Caleb Durbin ($2,200) vs. Burrows
Kyle Karros ($2,700) vs. Holmes
SHORTSTOP
Top:
Gunnar Henderson ($5,700) vs. Warren
Zach Neto ($5,300) vs. Scott
Mauricio Dubon ($3,700) vs. Quintana
Punt:
Ronny Mauricio ($2,300) vs. Urena
Luisangel Acuna ($2,700) vs. Marquez
OUTFIELD
Top:
Ronald Acuna ($5,900) vs. Quintana
Aaron Judge ($6,500) vs. Povich
Mickey Moniak ($4,500) vs. Holmes
Brent Rooker ($4,500) vs. Cantillo
Kyle Schwarber ($5,400) vs. Perez
Jordan Beck ($3,300) vs. Holmes
Juan Soto ($5,800) vs. Urena
Punt:
Ryan Vilade ($2,700) vs. Ray
Adolis Garcia ($2,800) vs. Perez
Heliot Ramos ($3,000) vs. McClanahan
Davis Schneider ($2,400) vs. Woods Richardson
Tristan Peters ($2,300) vs. Marquez
MJ Melendez ($2,800) vs. Urena
Rob Refsnyder ($2,700) vs. Ragans
Let’s build the lineup!
First guys in:
That leaves us needing some value.
We can throw in Eric Wagaman ($2,000). He’s the top value in the projections, but it’s not a guarantee that he’ll make the lineup. He was just claimed off of waivers and promoted. He’s a righty, and so is Walbert Urena, so I doubt he actually makes the lineup. I don’t really want to get caught at 6:30 relying on a $2K hitter I have to replace… so I’ll move forward without him.
I guess we can punt at catcher with Carlos Narvaez against Burrows.
How about the red hot Heliot Ramos against McClanahan? Ramos has a 138 wRC+ career against lefties, so that will work.
That leaves $12,300 for a 1B/3B/SS. Let’s slide Austin Riley in there to get some more Braves action.
Here’s what we can to make it fit together. Two more Coors bats with Mauricio Dubon at shortstop and TJ Rumfield at first.
There it is! Looking pretty good. Somewhat chalky, but probably not super chalky with the Woo/Ragans thing.
And I’ll have a good reason to watch this Coors game tonight, and those can always be fun.
BETTING PICKS
Your BOOM hitters to bet on:
TOTAL BASE PARLAY:
Acuna + Gunnar + Elly (+696)
HOMER PICKS:
Oneil Cruz +390
Junior Caminero +350
Aaron Judge +220
Kyle Schwarber +302
Brent Rooker +415
Gunnar Henderson +434
Alec Burleson +700
“GIMMES”:
Cole Ragans over 5.5 strikeouts -225
Simeon Woods Richardson over 2.5 strikeouts -228
Joey Cantillo over 4.5 strikeouts -200
Jack Flaherty over 14.5 outs -163
HITTER STRIKEOUT PARLAY
all are over 0.5 strikeouts for hitters
Cal Raleigh -680
Colby Thomas -407
James Wood -930
Owen Caissie -484
Nick Kurtz -373
OTHERS:
Christian Scott under 4.5 hits allowed -140
Jacob Young under 0.5 hits +115
Jake Rogers over 0.5 hits +105
Travis d’Arnaud under 0.5 hits +107
Trevor should publish some more bets later! Have a good Friday night boys!