MLB DW Slate Preview - May 21
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Night Slate
Pitchers
Braves vs. Nationals is at risk of a wash out - and there are pretty crappy conditions in the Rangers/Yankees game as well. Keep an eye on that stuff.
Jacob deGrom ($10,000) vs. Yankees: This is a showdown. Should be a fun game to watch. deGrom’s strikeout rate is under 27%, very strange for him, but he still has a top-notch 16.6% SwStr% and 32.7% Ball%. The strikeouts are going to come, and he’s got big upside against this heavy-swinging Yankees squad.
Garrett Crochet ($10,500) vs. Mets: Not the easiest matchup in the world, and the price is still way up there. But the model is feeling better about Crochet now and it doesn’t hate even this $10.5K on him against the Mets.
Tylor Megill ($8,300) vs. Red Sox: Megill projects for 6.8 strikeouts, which is actually a little bit more than deGrom and just under Crochet. His command isn’t good, which gives him a lot lwoer of a floor than those other two - but the guy can strike hitters out. For $8,300 - he could be a key piece tonight if the command is there.
Carson Palmquist ($5,000) vs. Phillies: The model does believe in Palmquist as an above-average MLB strikeout pitcher. Everything else might be terrible, but the projection on him is a solid 14 points for the $5K price. It’s extremely risky, but the price is enticing.
Stacks
Dodgers vs. Corbin Burnes: Burnes goes from the easiest matchup in the league (struck out ten Rockies at home last time out) to one of the toughest. And he has not looked good this year except for in that Road Rockies start. I think we can jump on a lower-owned LAD stack against him.
Rockies vs. Taijuan Walker: The Rockies finally get a break after facing two tough Phillies lefties in the first two games of the series. Walker is not good and the Rockies should be able to get some balls in play against him tonight and let Coors Field do its work.
Athletics vs. Jack Kochanowicz: The A’s have guys that can hit thel ongball. They also have a lot of strikeout in their lineup, but that isn’t a concern against J-KOCH, who is one of the lowest K pitchers you’ll find in the Major Leagues.
Angels vs. JP Sears: Sears’ struggles with right-handed bats are clear. And the Angels have at least a few competent righties in their lineup. Ward, Soler, and Neto are in play here.
Phillies vs. Palmquist: The model likes Palmquist, so it doesn’t grade the Phillies out very well for what they’re priced. But you can’t deny a Phillies stack on this slate. Chances are they’ll do just fine, and even if Palmquist pitches well - the Rockies bullpen is awful behind him.
Top Bats
Catcher
O’Hoppe $3,700 vs. Sears
Langeliers $4,000 vs. Kochanowicz
Kirk $3,100 vs. Vasquez
First Base
Ohtani $6,300 vs. Burnes
Guerrero Jr. $4,700 vs. Vasquez
Olson $4,600 vs. Williams
Second Base
Rengifo $2,600 vs. Sears
Hamilton $2,700 vs. Megill
Marte $5,600 vs. May
Third Base
McMahon $3,800 vs. Walker
Muncy $3,200 vs. Burnes
Riley $4,400 vs. Williams
Shortstop
Neto $4,600 vs. Sears
Tovar $3,100 vs. Walker
Abrams $5,100 vs. Smith-Shawver
Turner $6,200 vs. Palmquist
Outfield
Ohtani $6,300 vs. Burnes
Carroll $5,900 vs. May
Soderstrom $4,500 vs. Koch
Butler $4,300 vs. Koch
Ward $3,500 vs. Sears
Haggerty $4,300 vs. Yarbrough
Wood $4,800 vs. Smith-Shawver
Rooker $5,000 vs. Koch
Tatis Jr. $5,700 vs. Gausman
Adell $2,800 vs. Sears
Beck $4,800 vs. Walker
Varsho $4,200 vs. Vasquez
Soler $3,400 vs. Sears
Early Slate
Pitchers
Hunter Brown ($10,500) vs. Rays: Pretty much have to do on this slate. There’s not much to like. We have the situation where there is clearly a top SP on the board head-and-shoulder above the rest, and that’s Brown against the Rays. Great spot for him and no weather issues down there in Florida.
Cade Horton ($8,000) vs. Marlins: I don’t believe Horton to be a great MLB pitcher. I think he’ll prove to be more of an SP3-SP4, but against the Marlins on this particular slate I think we can play him for the first time. It’s another game that doesn’t have weather concerns, and the Marlins are a great matchup for Horton and his mid-90s fastball and slider.
Shane Smith ($7,000) vs. Mariners: Smith has looked good, and particularly lately. He has 17 strikeouts and just three runs allowed in his last 16 innings (three starts). The Mariners don’t look like a pushover matchup this year, but that doesn’t mean we have to avoid them. The M’s are slashing .236/.321/.397 this year. That’s about a league-average line overall. I like Smith’s fastball and changeup, and I think the stuff he has gives him a 4-5 strikeout floor here, which works okay for the price on this tough slate.