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Weather
It looks like the Cardinals and Reds will get PPD’d. We’re also in some trouble with the Nationals/Braves game.
There’s a 2:20 Wrigley game. You’ve got Spencer Arrighetti going up against Jameson Taillon. And you immediately should notice an over/under of seven.
That’s crazy low for an Arrighetti/Taillon game. But you know what it means! Everybody is terrified of the WINDS.
It just can’t really work like this, right? You’d think that Wrigley Field was like up among the planes or something with what’s going on this year. It’s either a 6.5 total or a 12.5 total with everybody betting and going nuts all about the winds. There’s something real there, obviously, and Roth says it’s a horrible home run hitting environment. It just seems so, so overstated to me. But we’ll see, I guess.
My model does adjust for the wind. But it’s missing whatever complexities kick in with Wrigley specifically. I have the game way over. But the model is losing when making picks in Wrigley (6-12).
Please keep that in mind. To play it safe, I just wouldn’t take those @CHC games in the O/U model.
But Arrighetti and Taillon are both very bad. And a game can score eight runs without a homer. The Wrigley wind stuff makes me very mad.
The turbo games are the Guardians at the Phillies and the Cardinals at the Reds rainout. So we have a massive main slate to get into.
BOOM HITTERS
Massive list today.
Home Run Model
DFS Preview - Main Slate
Implied Totals
BRAVES VS. MIKOLAS
If this game gets played, the Braves are in a turbo chalk Fourth of July fireworks spot. So immediately, this slate gets tough. The best offense might not play, and it’s unlikely that we’ll know well ahead of time. Mikolas has given up a .354 xwOBA and 11 homers with a 7.5 K-BB%.
DIAMONDBACKS VS. SUGANO
The game is in Arizona, so this isn’t a crazy great spot for the Snakes.
Sugano has a 13% K% away from home with a .381 xwOBA. But he’s been survived by a .180 BABIP. To his credit, I suppose, he does have a 45% GB%, so he’s not letting a ton of balls get into the air. But I love the Snakes against Sugano tonight. But they are projected to be the highest owned stack, so you have to consider that.
BLUE JAYS VS. CHANDLER
It could be the last time we’ll see Bubba in th bigs for a bit. He’s definitely pitching for his job in this one. But man, it’s been awful. He has one good pitch, and his good pitch isn’t good. A 9.4% SwStr% with a .401 xwOBA on his four-seamer. I guess the changeup has been pretty decent. But he can’t throw strikes and he’s not making up for it with weak contact. Disaster season for Bubba, and the Blue Jays have some nice prices by their names.
ORIOLES VS. FLAHERTY
I’m hesitant to pick on Flaherty. I’m still holding onto belief that he can get back to his normal ways of having a K-BB% above 18%. He’s at 17% if you include last year, but it’s been rough this year. A 9.2% K-BB% with a .350 xwOBA allowed. Only six homers, though, and the Orioles are a pretty poor lineup.
Baltimore’s projected ownership is low, so I guess I like a few Orioles stacks in there betting on Flaherty’s struggles to continue. And the O’s do have some bombers in that lineup still when they’re making contact.
YANKEES VS. NICK MARTINEZ
Let’s take a look at N-Mart, because he has one of the best ERAs in the league at 1.51.
But these numbers suck:
He keeps the ball on the ground and lets that changeup of his give hitters trouble.
His sinker has a 3.1% SwStr% with a 43% GB%, and yet a .307 xwOBA with no homers allowed. I’m confused by Nick Martinez. But it’s not a total shock that the Rays are getting better results from him than the Rays did.
I guess the Yankees aren’t a great stack against guys who limit homers. They’re pretty whiff-heavy and pretty dependent on the long ball (team .232 average.
I don’t really want to stack Yankees, I guess. But it’s the biggest challenge of the season for Martinez in Yankees Stadium. Note that his overall GB% is just 42%. Not good in this spot.
I’m on both sides of it, I guess. But when in doubt, stack up some Judge/Rice/Jazz.
PADRES VS. SPRINGS
This one’s in San Diego. Which is good for Springs and bad for a Padres team hitting .216/.289/.353 at home this year.
But I’d rather go against Springs. I just don’t think he’s good, and eventually the Padres are going to have to get better.
LOW OWNED STACKS
Dodgers vs. Logan Henderson
Yankees vs. Martinez
Nationals vs. Elder
Here’s the full team data:
Big value as per usual with the Giants.
They’re up against Davis Martin. And I suppose my arm has been twisted to like that guy. The under-the-hood stuff now looks very good. And this game is in San Fran. But are we to be surprised when and if Martin blows up? And do we know that the big three Giants have .900+ OPS in the last two weeks?
Now we know that! The Giants are heating up, and Martin was formerly a very bad pitcher. That sounds like a leverage stack I want.
The poop stacks:
Twins vs. Tolle
Angels vs. deGrom
Red Sox vs. Prielipp
Marlins vs. Tobias Myers
Marlins vs. Myers not projecting well! It will be a lot of the Mets bullpen, so that factors in. We’ve got Myers for about just 60 pitches. And he’s been decently effective in his long relief role (16% K-BB%, .278 xwOBA).
PITCHERS
Here’s everybody over 15 points:
JACOB DEGROM ($9,500) vs. LAA (38% ownership)
Finally, deGrom gets a good matchup. He’s faced the Yankees, Yankees, Cubs, and Astros in the last four starts. He’s also had to ace the Mariners twice and the Dodgers once. So it’s been a tough schedule. But it all gets right tonight. Possibly a lock-button spot for me on deGrom with his 27% K-BB%!
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($8,300) vs. PIT (19% ownership)
The Pirates lineup took a hit with O’Hearn hitting the IL, and they’ll end up in Toronto tonight against Gausman. Gausdaddy has a 23% K% and a .292 xwOBA this year with his usual elite walk rate.
He’s not a stone cold stud daddy anymore, but he’s a good pitcher and I can believe that he’ll have a nice start tonight at home. The Pirates have some definite losers at the bottom of the lineup, and potentially a new loser being added to it with Esmerlyn Valdez making his debut. I’m not saying Valdez is definitely a loser, but Gausman would have to be the best pitcher he’s ever faced, right?
MICHAEL SOROKA ($8,000) vs. ROAD ROCKIES (22% ownership)
The Rockies on the road this year: .234/.300/.364 with a .298 xwOBA. They’re very beatable, and Soroka has strutted some upside this year.
He has 55 strikeouts in 49 innings for a 26% K% and a nice 6.7% BB%. He’s capable of dominating in this spot.
The matchups model doesn’t hate the Rockies against Soroka, though. This doesn’t really consider the park stuff. It does a little bit, but it will give it 50/50 road/home and this game is 100/0 road/home. You see what I’m saying.
A little bit of Soroka for me, but I’d probably rather be on the fade side at 22% ownership.
PAYTON TOLLE ($8,900) vs. MIN (17% ownership)
The Tollemeister! His three strikeout performance last time out droppe the K% down to 28%. But it was eight innings of four-hit, two-run ball.
His fastball is awesome (15.3% SwStr%, .139 xwOBA). His sinker is not. But he has a cutter and curve going for around 30% usage, so he has a lot going for him. Love him in this spot against the Twins.
BUT the matchups model does not agree. The Twins ranked 12th on the board tonight.
These are small samples, though. There aren’t many pitches clustering with Tolle’s. I’m in on Tolle.
GERRIT COLE ($8,500) vs. TB (7% ownership)
Count me out, even at 7% ownership. It will be awesome to see him back on the hill. But it rarely seems to go well in the first starts back from Tommy John.
Cole threw 84 pitches in his last rehab start six days ago. And his fastball averaged 97mph. So that’s encouraging. The guy is a stud. I guess his Hall of Fame case is marginal since his big league sample size isn’t all that huge at this point. I won’t be surprised if he pitches well, but I think it’s more likely that he disappoints at this $8,500 price tag against a team that makes a ton of contact.
JACK FLAHERTY ($6,300) vs. BAL (7% ownership)
The projections will still be boosted up by his much better performance in 2024-2025. As we already mentioned, he’s been bad this year. But he does have a ten-strikeout game recently (against Boston), and the price tag is buried way down there. I like sprinkling in some Flaherty at this price.
LOGAN GILBERT ($8,700) vs. KC (6% ownership)
This might be the lowest projection we’ve seen on Gilbert. This poor 2026 season is weighing in. The Royals rank 11th in the matchups model, so they hit these kinds of righties decently well.
Gilbert has loads of upside, and the Royals haven’t hit well. But this is a road game, which is never good for the Mariners arms. And this price really doesn’t reflect the fact that he’s gone for 15+ points in just one of his last six starts. That’s wild stuff.
If he were brand new to the league, we’d think he pretty much sucks.
But his ownership… 6%. That makes me want to pounce.
EURY PEREZ ($7,300) vs. NYM
Perez hasn’t been friendly to the Stuff+ bros. A big 107 Stuff+, but poor performance everywhere else. A .352 xwOBA, a 37% Ball% and a 13% K-BB%. He’s struggling, and I’m losing confidence.
The Mets also aren’t a lineup I’d like to pick on. They’re getting a lot better as time rolls on.
That only matters to me because the .330 mark or so is what we thought they’d be before the season began. So they’re playing to their expectations now after being very poor to begin the year. So I think they’re kinda good. I like Eury for upside tourney bets, but not much else.
CONNOR PRIELIPP ($7,000) vs. BOS (10% ownership)
He gets better every time out. He has a 14:4 K:BB with 40 fantasy points in his last two, and this is a nice matchup for him against the Red Sox.
Boston ranks 23rd in the matchups model offensively, so we like Prielipp here, especially for the pretty cheap tag.
CHRIS BASSITT ($5,500) vs. DET (10% ownership)
He’s been bad with a 5.4% K-BB%. A .290 xBA, a .349 xwOBA…
But lately? Much better. A 15% K-BB% with a. 308 xwOBA in May. And the Tigers aren’t great. The sticking point is the price. Sometimes, you just need that $5,500 pitcher to make your stack work. Tourneys are often won by getting 13 points from a punt SP play.
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ ($6,900) vs. TEX (4% ownership)
Do you have the guts? It’s his second start. His first one was terrible, but it was against the Dodgers.
This matchup is on the other end of the spectrum. The price is fair. I don’t have much good to say about him. The Stuff+ marks were bad in the first start, so he’s probably just not a high-upside arm like some are inclined to believe given his former top prospect status. That was a long, long time ago, we should forget about it.
I’ll be off Grayson, but I wouldn’t like make fun of you and give you a swirlie for playing him above a 4% share of your lineups.
LOGAN HENDERSON ($9,200) vs. LAD (3% ownership)
Nobody is going to use him tonight. The price is out of control for this matchup. That might be reason enough to play him? He is pretty good…
The fact that we have a ton of options probably means you don’t have to get too into it. If he pops for 25 points at 3% ownership, you’re not cooked because… well nobody really took those points and some of these other guys are going to do just as well.
It will be very interesting to see how he handles this test. The numbers are elite in four starts:
KC, WSH, NYY, and MIN were those matchups. And the Yankees hit him hard, so he kinda failed the only tough matchup he had (14 DK points in that one).
If we’re going small field stuff, leave him alone. But the 150-max, I’ll have some shars.
The values:
I covered everybody there besides Chandler. I guess it’s possible that Chandler suddenly rediscovers his command and has a good outing. The Blue Jays don’t hit many homers. He has more upside than Bassitt, certainly, but Chandler has given us zero reason to believe in him this year.
CASH PLAYS
deGrom
Bassitt
Soroka
GPP PLAYS
deGrom
Bassitt
Soroka
Flaherty
Gilbert
Eury
Tolle
Henderson
BEST OVERALL STACKS
ownership not considered
Braves
Diamondbacks
Yankees
Dodgers
BEST TOURNEY STACKS
Upside with low ownership
Dodgers vs. Henderson (low-owned LA)
Yankees vs. Martinez
Nationals vs. Elder
Giants vs. Martinez
Pirates vs. Gausman
Brewers vs. Wrobleski
Maybe, just maybe, it all blows up for Wrobleski. e has a .299 xwOBA allowed at home and .327 on the road. This game’s in Milwaukee. Sneaky spot for the Brew Crew.
Hitters - by Position
CATCHERS
Gabriel Moreno $3,300
William Contreras $4,200
Salvador Perez $3,200
Hunter Goodman $4,900
I’ll leave Langeliers alone at $5,600. It’s too much for a game in San Diego. I like Goodman’s power potential against Soroka, although it would be a lot better if he were left-handed. But the guy hits more homers on the road than at home, and you’ll get low ownership on all road rockies.
The most popular play is projected to be Moreno. I don’t think he has the upside to justify him as chalk.
Maybe William Contreras is my favorite play. Maybe. I want to be on the fade side of Wrobleski, and this is one way to do it.
The punts:
Freddy Fermin $2,100 vs. Springs
Drew Millas $2,400 vs. Elder
FIRST BASE
Shohei Ohtani $6,400
Rafael Devers $4,400
Nick Kurtz $5,500
Vlad Guerrero Jr. $4,800
It’s not a night to play Dodgers at high prices in cash. Logan Henderson is good. But it’s tough to make a case for any of these guys.
I guess I like Guerrero the best against Chandler. There’s plenty of free points handed out through Chandler walks, so there’s likely to be a walk or two for Vlad, and possibly a bunch of guys on base for him to drive in with one of those hard struck Vlad doubles.
Punts:
Bryce Eldridge $2,200
Luis Garcia Jr. $3,400
Spencer Torkelson $2,900
SECOND BASE
Fernando Tatis Jr. $4,200
Ketel Marte $5,300
Jazz Chisholm $4,600
Tatis’s price! The lack of homers has kept him down, obviously, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and can score points with steals. Is he going to go deep for the first time here against Springs? Probably not, but it’s a good spot for Tatis and I’m very drawn to his price.
Ketel Marte is smashing the ball again, and the Diamondbacks are one of the top offenses on the board tonight. He will be on the left side tonight, but his xwOBA of .375 is better from that side this year than as a right-handed hitter (.346).
Tatis and/or Marte for me tonight.
Punts:
Richie Palacios $3,100
Marcus Semien $2,900
THIRD BASE
Manny Machado $4,100
Junior Caminero $5,000
Nolan Arenado $3,500
Austin Riley $4,300
Kazuma Okamoto $3,500
Lots to like here.Arenado has been very good, and he’s in that sweet D’Backs spot.
Caminero could welcome Cole back quite rudely in Yankees Stadium.
Machado joins Tatis with a very low price tag (although yeah, he has also sucked).
Riley against Mikolas, Okamoto vs. Chandler!
I don’t think we want to punt the position today because it’s so loaded. But here are your options:
Patrick Wisdom $2,100
Ryan McMahon $2,400
SHORTSTOP
Gunnar Henderson $5,200
Willy Adames $3,400
Bobby Witt $5,600
Geraldo Perdomo $4,500
Adames is at home, which hurts the power, and up against Martin, who has been awesome. But he’s still too cheap, as the projections are quick to point out.
Punts:
Luisangel Acuna $2,300
Andruw Monasterio $2,400
I think I just like Adames the most… what a world.
OUTFIELD
Shohei Ohtani $6,400
Corbin Carroll $5,800
Aaron Judge $6,500
Fernando Tatis $4,200
Ronald Acuna $5,700
Juan Soto $6,200
Jackson Chourio $4,900
Michael Harris $3,800
When is the price going to come up on Harris? He’s got 11 homers and the best numbers of his career, he’s been great.
Carroll is the top play against Sugano. Smash spot for him, but super high ownership no doubt about it.
Values:
Luisangel Acuna $2,300
Esmerlyn Valdez $2,000
Rob Refsnyder $2,200 (lefty starting for KC)
Lourdes Gurriel $3,200
OPTIMAL LINEUP
SP deGrom SP Flaherty C Moreno 1B Eldridge 2B Marte 3B Arenado SS Adames OF Carroll OF Tatis OF Ohtani
That’s a pretty nice looking lineup. It’s heavy on the Diamondbacks, which won’t give you much ownership leverage. But it’s a viable cash lineup. Ig uess maybe you’d rather exclude Flaherty.
I’m going to publish this bad boy so we can get it out before the Cubs game.
