MLB DW Slate Preview - May 23
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Cubs vs. Reds
Pitchers
Great American Ballpark is always a bit scary for a fly-ball pitcher, and both of these guys are fly-ball pitchers. The wind is blowing slightly out here as well, so we could see some dingers. The Cubs will be a big challenge for Hunter Greene, but I doubt he will have much trouble. Greene has some of the best stuff in the league, and at the end of the day, that kind of pitching will beat hitters more often than not.
The spot I really like here is Matt Boyd. The Reds do not profile well against lefties. There’s only one green xwOBA in the splits data.
Elly De La Cruz does not hit for power against lefties. His xwOBA vs. LHP is .287 over the last two years. He’s still a threat to get on base and create havoc on the bags, but the power potential is much reduced here.
This game isn’t on the main DFS slate, but if it were, I’d be into Boyd at $7,300. The way to attack this good spot is probably with outs recorded rather than strikeouts or runs/hits allowed. Boyd is always a guy who can give up a few homers, especially in Cincy. That doesn’t hurt his innings as much as it might hurt the hits and runs, obviously. So that’s where I’d go.
→ Boyd Over 15 outs -500
→ Boyd Over 18 outs -120
The model also thinks Greene’s hits allowed is a misprice here. The Cubs are a strong offense, and they grind out ABs.
→ Hunter Greene over 3.5 hits allowed +120
Hitters
It’s hard to like any hitters in particular here. But the model does like Kyle Tucker +380 and Pete Crow-Armstrong +500 for a dinger. If there’s a way to beat Greene, it’s with the long ball at home. Tucker and PCA can certainly do that, especially against a guy who pounds the zone with four-seamers and sliders.
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