MLB DW Slate Preview - May 28
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Player Props
Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 Walks +190
Admittedly, the model hasn’t been very good at picking walks from hitters. But this is the highest bet value on the list tonight. And looking at it, I can’t really make sense of +190 here.
Meidroth has a 130 PA sample this year, and he has just a 34% Swing%. That’s an insanely low swing rate, and it’s led to as 12% BB%.
The White Sox take on Griffin Canning today. He’s been good for the Mets, but he is still a guy who wastes a lot of pitches. His 36.5 Ball% is worse than the league average, and he has a 9.6% BB% - another number worse than the league average. So we have two players that are prone to the walk, and the matchup results in +190 if we can get a walk from Meidroth?
Kyle Hart Under 3.5 Strikeouts +138
Hart made five starts in the Majors before getting demoted. In those starts, he posted a poo 17.8% K%, and even worse 8.2% SwStr%. Then he went to AAA and continued to struggle with the strikeout.
So he hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches any time recently, and he maxed out at four strikeouts against AAA teams.
He gets the Marlins today, which is a soft amtchup, but the one that lineup does decently well is make contact. The Marlins lineup today has six hitters with K% under 20%. I don’t think Hart is getting more than a few strikeouts here. The 3.5 line is low, but I’ll happily take the under at +138 on FanDuel or +130 on DraftKings.