Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
The weather this week looks bad. We have three questionable games heading into this slate. Check out that PropFinder weather report from Kevin Roth!
Red Sox vs. Tigers (yellow / chance for delay)
Brewers vs Cardinals (orange / delay likely / PPD possible)
Mets vs. Rockies (red / PPD likely)
Looks like 30-degree temps and snow in Denver. So we probably do not have to worry about that game.
NEW GAME O/U BETTING SHEET
I was curious to see whether or not my projection model could be used to get an edge in O/U betting. So I checked. So far this year, when my model’s game run projection is one run different than the O/U, that recommended O/U bet would have a 54% win rate (85 wins, 73 losses).
So there are two new tabs in the Daily Matchups Cheat Sheet. One is called “OU Betting”, and that will just show you the projections vs. the DraftKings O/U line and give you the recommendation if the difference is greater than one run.
Here’s today:
So we have three recommended overs with a slight edge if this 54% rate holds up.
DODGERS at ASTROS OVER 8.5
PADRES at GIANTS OVER 7.5
REDS at CUBS OVER 8
RED SOX at TIGERS UNDER 8
There’s another tab that shows the tracking:
That will do a twice-weekly comparison (don’t want to scrape the historical lines daily because it counts against my API allowance) and list all of the spots where it would have said either OVER or UNDER. And it will slap the W-L record there in the first row for you, currently 85-73.
There’s no easy money in the world, and especially not in the sports betting world. A 54% win rate would be professional level. That would require large unit sizes and a long-term approach to make substantial money. And that all operates on the assumption that 54% will hold up all year, which is far from a guarantee.
But I know a lot of you use the projections for O/U betting, and some people have told me they’ve been successful. So this should make things a bit easier for you.
Implied Totals
EARLY SLATE
The Rothinator says it’s a great run-scoring environment in Philly. And you see Philly on top of the board here. That game O/U is at nine. I just took the over based on this:
Sanchez is really tough to hit in the air, so the wind doesn’t bother him much. But it’s a great spot for the Philly lineup against a hittable righty in this weather.