MLB DW Slate Preview - May 9
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
It’s Friday! Let’s get into this massive slate of 15 MLB games. Stu is not available to run some projection-powered props at you today, so I’ll be looking for the best spots on that front as we go through this. You can get the first game of this for free, but to get the full slate preview along with all of the tools, projections, and other resources, become a paid subscriber today!
I’m just going to show you the “Lineup Stats” for each matchup. This is not the results of the advanced pitch movement model, it’s just how the 2024-2025 stats for those nine (projected) hitters stack up together. And it’s weighted based on lineup spot. Okay, let’s get into it.
Rangers vs. Tigers
Pitchers
It’s a Tarik Skubal night. This one is not on the main slate for DFS, so we don’t have make the decision on Skubal for that. The big lefty has been his usual terrific self this year:
30% K%
3.1% BB%
17.8% SwStr%
You can see the insane .216 xwOBA allowed to lefties since last year. He is nearly untouchable in those matchups. And righties don’t fare better at a .271 xwOBA. I would say there are only two truly good hitters in this Rangers lineup, Seager and Langford. And that shows up a bit on the advanced matchups results:
I’m starting this massive slate preview by telling you that you should expect Tarik Skubal to do very well tonight.
Patrick Corbin has not been awful this year. Or at least the results haven’t been awful. He has a 3.28 ERA and has no more than three earned runs in any start, and he’s given up just one or two runs in four of his five starts. However:
→ K%: 15.9%
→ xwOBA: .349
→ xBA: .287
→ SLG: .474
He’s been very lucky to only have given up that many runs. His SIERA is 4.58, which is even worse than last year. It has been since 2019 that he’s posted a SIERA below 4.30. He’s bad, and the Tigers are in a great spot here to continue their winning ways.
Hitters
Spencer Torkelson is the lone “Best Matchups” qualifier here:
The truth is that the Tigers set up much better against right-handed pitching with their two main bats (Carpenter & Greene) being lefties.
I suppose it’s not the worst matchup in the world for Corbin. But this game isn’t a consideration for the DFS slate, so I also don’t care all that much to get into the details.
Props
I don’t see much to worry about here. The model doesn’t have anything recommended other than Josh Jung Over 0.5 HR +900. And that would mean you’re betting on someone taking Skubal yard, which is a pretty tough thing to do, obviously. But the +900 is a number the model finds advantageous.
I would also feel pretty good about getting a big hit or two from Torkelson, given that he shows up on the matchups qualifiers.
Prediction
The one angle I might take if really getting into this game is just to bet against Patrick Corbin. Some prices or lines or whatever might be a little bit too overzealous on him because of the solid ERA he’s posted so far - but nothing under the hood looks any better. And the Tigers should win this one (-278).
Braves vs. Pirates
Something is wrong with Falter’s stats not showing there, but I’m just going to move past it. This is another one not on the DFS slate. We have two bad pitchers here, but the overall advantage goes firmly to the Braves.
Pitchers
Bryce Elder has been pretty tough on righties, but horrible against lefties. The splits are stark. The Pirates roll out four lefties in matchups like this, with only two of them being good hitters (Cruz & Reynolds). If Elder can navigate those two bats, I think he’ll do fine here. This Pittsburgh lineup is just so unthreatening.
They did fire their coach yesterday. I’m not sure if that creates anything new. I guess it would depend on if they liked him or not. Maybe this could be a fire-lighting situation if they were all just kinda waiting for him to be outta there. But I don’t think it makes any kind of difference on anything. The manager in baseball is pretty much a non-factor in the results of the games, in my opinion.
Bailey Falter doesn’t always get completely wrecked out there. He’s capable of having some good starts. And the Braves lineup just isn’t that good right now. They still don’t have Acuna, Ozzie Albies looks completely lost, and things just aren’t clicking for Matt Olson (yet). The real challenges are Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna. They both have xwOBAs north of .360 against lefties since last season.
Batters
Riley and Ozuna stand out as I just mentioned. And on the Pittsburgh side, it’s Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in the best matchups. The guy I’d bet on for some loud contact would be Austin Riley. He’s in the “best matchups” tab here and he’s swinging a good bat this year.
Props
You can get +126 for Bailey Falter under 3.5 strikeouts on FanDuel.
Cardinals vs. Nationals
It would seem like there should be a bunch of balls in play in this one. These are two pitchers with very low strikeout rates.
The best matchups is loaded up with Nationals bats.
And the model likes Mitchell Parker under 3.5 strikeouts +110 quite a bit. There are only two heavy strikeout bats vs. LHP in the Nats lineup (Riley Adams and James Wood). So I like targeting the Nationals for run and hits tonight.
But I really want to get to the DFS slate, so let’s keep moving!
Braves vs. Rays
Pitchers
Jose Quintana ($8,700) is priced just ridiculously. He has an 18% K% this year on a 7.3% SwStr%. He does continue to generate soft contact (.387 SLG), so there’s not a super great case to stack against him - but you certainly cannot be paying this price for the guy.
On the other side is Zack Littell ($6,500). That price is more like it. I think that’s about where Quintana should be. However, he projects for 11 points. One a 12-game slate, I do not see the point. I’m trying to put together somewhat narrow SP pools in my DFS lineups, and I want exclusively a list of guys I think could go off for 20+ points. I don’t really see that here from Littell and his 20% K% in the last two seasons.
Hitters
Both pitchers are decent with the xwOBA stuff. They don’t usually go out there and give up multiple homers or like 5+ earned runs. So it’s not the greatest spot in the world for stacking. But there are some standout hitter matchups showing:
However, the only guy who projects to be able to lift the ball is Bauer. Yelich, Diaz, and Caballero are all ground ball heavy hitters. And you can see that Caballero doesn’t even hit the ball hard.
I like Yelich, Bauers, and maybe Yandy for one-off plays, but I think that’s it.
Props
The model does recommend Jose Quintana Over 4.5 K (+125). The Rays have two super heavy K% hitters (Caballero 36%, Walls 32% against LHP), and then they also still have Morel (29%) and Lowe (28%) in there. There’s a lot of K opportunity for Quintana. That doesn’t make me want to use him at that price in DFS, but maybe that prop is a good idea.