MLB DW Slate Preview - September 2
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Luke Keaschall
The model is loving the Twins in this spot against Davis Martin. They are projecting for the most fantasy points and the most runs scored in my model.
Luke Keaschall has the top fantasy point projection on the freaking board tonight. That’s insane. So insane that it’s pretty clear to me that the model is overheated on the guy. But there’s some reason we got here. Keaschall so far in the Majors has a .310/.405/.496 slash line with four homers and eight steals. He has scored 2.25 DraftKings points per plate appearance this year, that is in the top 20 league-wide.
Davis Martin has a 4.13 JA ERA in the Majors this year with a weak 17.5% K% and a .365 xwOBA allowed. His walk rate is nice at 7.7%, but that works for us when betting on the Twins. Extra balls in play means extra total bases, homers, and so on and so forth. Let’s build a Keaschall + Twins parlay to take advantage of this spot.
→ Luke Keaschall 2+ HRR -135
→ Byron Buxton 2+ HRR -150
→ Twins moneyline -151
→ Parlay +238
Garrett Crochet vs. Guardians
Crochet is in the Cy Young conversation, I think. The Red Sox have a ton to play for as well, so there’s no lack of motivation from Gary Crotch tonight.
And this is a smash matchup for the guy. Cleveland has just a .624 OPS this year against lefties. They are decent at making contact overall, but worse against lefties with a team 23.5% K%. That’s more than a point above the league average. This is not a spot where Crochet would expect fewer strikeouts.
Here’s what Cleveland looks like in recent months against lefties (since July 1st)
Nobody really home. Evean J-Ram has struggled against lefties. Let’s fire up some money on Crochet to dominate in this spot.
→ Crochet 7+ K -310
→ Crochet to earn a win -120
→ Crochet to win the race to 3 K -600
Nolan McLean Fade
All good things must come to an end. We have a pretty big mismatch between McLean’s K% (28%) and SwStr% (12.5%), as well as between his walk rate (5.6%) and his Ball (34.3%). I think he will walk more hitters and strike out fewer hitters as we move forward. He went eight innings last night out, and that has some of these lines juiced up a bit.