MLB DW Slate Preview - September 8
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
We now begin the two most important weeks of the fantasy baseball season. A lot of people’s attention has turned to football. And that includes some of my own attention. But I’m offering an olive branch here to the tried and true baseball bros.
I want to talk about some baseball. If you’re still in the running in your fantasy league (especially head-to-head), you’re probably about as laser-focused today as ever. My home league begins its playoffs today, and the MLB DW league is in the semis (and I’m still alive!).
I’m not sure what I have to offer you season long fantasy guys, but I will just talk about some interesting stuff on this baseball slate and we’ll see if we can do some titillating.
Chase Dollander In The Ravine
I have never been to Dodgers Stadium. But maybe I’d like to someday. That would require me to travel to a large city, and I’ll admit, that’s hard for me. I was in Pittsburgh last week, and Pittsburgh does not compare to LA in the slightest, but I still hated the windy roads and the traffic and the smells and the noises. I’ve become such a prude.
Anyways, Chase Dollander would be better off stuck in traffic tonight. He comes into LA to face the Dodgers, and it’s not going to go well for him. Dollander had a little bit of hype on him coming up, but that was quickly extinguished.
Dollander has given up an 11.9% Brl% and a .364 xwOBA in his 1,702 pitches thrown in the Majors this week. He’s given up 18 homers. THE SPLITS, THOUGH:
RHB: 22.6% K%, 12.3% SwStr%, .329 xwOBA, 6 HR, 51% GB%
LHB: 14.5% K%, 9.5% SwStr%, .394 xwOBA, 18 HR, 37% GB%
Those are striking splits. It’s not that he’s good against righties, but he’s not horrible. And he is a-w-f-u-l against lefties.
Am I just going to sit here and predict that the Dodgers win and we get big games from Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman? That would be lame. But yes, that’s what we’re doing.
I would also like to let you know that Max Muncy returns from the IL (again) tonight. So he can very well get right back into the groove of things and go super duper yard. Muncy was one of the best in the game before the first injury, and in his short time back he had picked right back up where he had left off. Since June 1st:
16% K%, .480 xwOBA, 16.5% Brl%
I can’t guarantee that he’s super healthy or whatever, and guys probably don’t usually rock dingers immediately upon returning, but this is a minor league pitcher for him to face so I think he comes back with a bang-a-rang.
And yo, shout outs to Mookie Betts. He is slugging .454 since August 1st with a .392 xwOBA. It’s still just a 4.1% Brl% with low EV (101 EV90), but things have been a lot better.
The Dodgers will score 17 runs tonight.
Cade Cavalli Strikeouts
This one is a bit hopeful on my part. I’m starting Cavalli for this two-start week in the semifinals. He’ll take on the Marlins tonight. And that’s a good matchup for him. Miami is hitting .207/.284/.337 in the second half. Kyle Stowers is on the shelf, and Agustin Ramirez has been ice cold (.173/.246/.250 over his last 57 PA).
Cavalli has a 14.1% SwStr% and 34.2% Ball% this year. Those are competitive numbers. The results haven’t followed behind like you’d think, but there is upside on this cat.
A 14% SwStr% would suggest a 25-27% K%, but we’ve seen him much lower than that this year. I think the K train starts tonight and Cavalli puts some nice numbers on the board.
CADE CAVALLI 5+ STRIKEOUTS
Nolan McLean
I still don’t know if he can keep getting away with this! I’m not even going to take a stand on the guy. I pooped on him in a slate preview a week or so go, and I was super wrong and some Mets fan let me hear about it. But that Mets fan must have been a paid sub, so hey man I appreciate you!