The new top 150 is published on the app, and the player-by-player full details are coming out daily right here. This is all the work of Tim Kanak.
Read all of the articles here.
But right now you’re reading Jon’s words as I highlight some of the biggest risers from this new version of the top 150.
Caden Bodine, The Biggest Riser
Previous Rank: #148
New Rank: #64
If we’re looking just at guys who were in the previous top 150 and moved up the most, none moved up more than Caden Bodine, a Rays catching prospect.
What pops on Bodine is the plate discipline. It’s a plot stretcher. The fScore on his discipline is literally too high for my pre-programming to even display:
I’m not an aesthetics guy, but I try a little bit. I thought putting 140 as the upper-bound on those fScores would work.
But Bodine is pushing it. He has now played 113 games in the minors with an 6.6% K% and a 9.3% BB%. That’s way more walks than strikeouts. Oftentimes you’ll see this kind of thing come without much power, but he’s hit 14 homers in 527 PAs for a decent 37 PA/HR as he’s worked his way up to AAA (promoted there just this week).
The hit tool also pops with a 120 fScore. The only launch angle data we have on him is from his three balls in play in AAA. But we can guess at it by using FanGraphs estimated LD% and some BABIP stuff.
The guys a .343/.412/.496 hitter in the minors and he’s seemingly on the fast track to the show. We could see him next year. Tim’s ETA is mid 2027.
Maybe this isn’t a fantastic fantasy profile, but he’s looking like a catcher who could hit for a high batting average, a high OBP, and get you 10-15 homers a year right away.
SS Luis Hernandez, Giants
Previous Rank: #123
New Rank: #60
His +63 is just one digit below Bodine. Unlike Bodine, this guy isn’t close to the Majors. He’s a 17-year-old kid in A-ball with the Giants.
So we don’t have much data, which makes me useless. Let’s just see what Tim had to say:
Prime Skills:
Hernandez started professional baseball in Venezuela at 15 and held his own against players several years older, and the early complex-league returns back up that international reputation, .302/.375/.635 with 12 extra-base hits in just 16 games, an 80% contact rate and a tidy 8.8% swinging-strike rate for a 17-year-old. His swing starts with a toe tap and gets on top of the ball out front consistently, quick hands and real bat speed driving both the contact quality and the emerging power, and he’s already put balls over the fence to dead center with a wood bat. He has struggled since getting to low A due to poor angles as his groundball rate has increased by 20% from 47% to 67% and he only has 4 extra base hits in 20 games, while he had 30 extra base hits in 54 complex level games.Ranking Explanation:
Hernandez was a Top 150 name for me before he'd even officially signed with the Giants, purely off Venezuelan showcase video, and his early complex-league returns have only confirmed that initial read rather than complicating it. His complex-league sample size was phenomenal, but the struggles at low A have reduced his hit and power potential by a half grade despite relatively small sample size. The kid is still 17-years-old, so we have to give him a break age-to-level.
OF Charlie Condon, Rockies
Previous Rank: #123
New Rank: #60
The Rockies are well represented on the hitting side of the top 150, and no man is rising faster than Condon.
He has eclipsed 1,000 PAs in the minors, so we have plenty of data. He’s in AAA currently, and we could see him in September.
This year: .267/.385/.507, 22 HR, 7 SB
He’s a well-rounded player with above-100 fScores in everything but speed. His best tool is power, with a 116.
In AAA this year:
10.3% Brl% (estimated), 29% FB%, 106.3 EV90, 112.6 MAX, 18% Air Pull%
And he’s a 23-year-old in AAA, so he’s playing well above age-level.
The Rockies outfield is a bit crowded right now, and Condon’s had a brutal August with a .622 OPS, so maybe it will take until next year when Jake McCarthy is out of the way for us to see him.
But Tim’s seeing a lot that he likes with Condon.
SS Jefferson Rojas, Mets
Previous Rank: #158
New Rank: #99
Rojas was one of the big prospect names moved at the deadline. The Mets acquired him in the Clay Holmes trade.
There’s no elite tool for Rojas. But he’s beyond the red line in everything:
Plus, he’s 21 years old and has already reached AAA. That’s not easy to do.
And even with the rapid ascension, he’s having a career year:
.819 OPS, 20 bombs, 17 steals. On his way to a smooth 20-20-.270 season and quite possibly the eventual replacement for Francisco Lindor.
He’s a smaller guy, so we don’t expect 30-homer upside in the Majors, but he could certainly develop into a 20-homer guy with steals and a good OPS.
Read way more on Rojas on the app (paid subs) or just wait a couple days for the #75-#100 detailed post from Tim!
Some New Faces
There are 42 new names in the top 150, many of which were draft picks this year. The top three first year players:
Roch Cholowsky, White Sox SS
The #1 overall pick in the draft shows up at #15 overall in the top 150. We think he’ll be fast-tracked with a potential arrival date of next year. A wrist injury has ended his season this year. He played nine games in A+ before that happened. We’d expect to see him in AA early next year and if all goes well, he could be in the bigs by this time next year.
Grady Emerson, Rays SS
The #2 pick in the draft this year behind Roch. Emerson shows up at #16 in the top 150. So Tim just kept these two together.
Emerson went to A ball and has played four games there. He picked out of high school, so it’s a longer path ahead to The Show.
I think what you get with high school picks is lower floor but higher ceilings. He will certainly be a name we talk a lot about here in the next few years as his professional career gets going.
Vahn Lackey, Twins C
The #3 pick in the draft! He was a college player, so our ETA on him is 2028.
He’s played 16 games so far between A and A+, and he’s hit the ground running with an .871 OPS and two homers while walking as much as he’s struck out.
I’ve got an Excel sheet for you paid subs with the top 150 and their previous ranks. I’ll drop that below the paywall.
If you want more prospect content, you’re in the right place. Specifically on first year players, we have a couple ways to help you.
Tim, Doc, and Owen were joined by Ross Jensen from Prospects Live to do a mock FYPD draft on a live pod:
And Tim has evaluations on a ton of guys from this year’s drafts. You can get his full thoughts and ranks by purchasing his FYPD package for just $10 right here.
