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It’s time for a big win. The DFS content has been solid here, and the projections have been performing well. But I’m left without much to show for it, personally. I’m jumping in on this 1:05 slate with another three-entry approach.
Weather
No weather concerns today! It’s been a great year for that. We’ve had 2-3 PPDs max.
Good hitting weather in Wrigley! Maybe not so great in Coors. And that Coors game is on the day slate, which is annoying because I’m trying to get into a slate without having to deal with it. But let’s smash it.
Game Info
OFFENSE TO USE - SAN DIEGO PADRES
It will be Ryan Feltner going for the Rockies. He’s been crushed this year with a .394 xwOBA, a .583 SLG, a 50% hard hit rate, and a 17.2% Brl%. We don’t like to bet on hard contact stuff continuing on the pitcher side, but the good news is that he’s an awful strike-earner as well.
That all backs up the big implication on the Padres offense. It’s another great spot in Coors, and we shouldn’t let their last two disappointing games sway us away from them.
OFFENSE TO USE - ATLANTA BRAVES
It’s Cade Cavalli for the Nationals. Somehow, this guy hasn’t given up a homer yet.
His 19% K%, 12.9% BB%, 4.75 JA ERA, and 2.50 WHIP+ show you that he’s been really awful despite not giving up a dinger. I have a feeling that home run is coming today. He’s been a decent ground ball guy in the past, but not so much this year at a 43% GB%.
OFFENSE TO USE - ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Maybe we’ll get a bit lower ownership on the Snakes since Davis Martin has a 2.16 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP this year.
But under the hood:
A .258 BABIP and a 6% HR/FB. He’s been super lucky. The .343 xwOBA shows you that he’s not actually limiting much at all. Great spot for the Diamondbacks.
OFFENSE TO USE - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
This is another SP with a good ERA driven by a lack of homers given up. E-Cab has still not surrendered a homer. His 38% hard hit rate, .326 xwOBA, and .254 xBA are fine. But the strikeout hasn’t been there for him in any way. Just a 19% K% with a bad 12% BB%.
If you’re a Stuff+ guy, you like this spot even more. Because his Stuff+ has been way down (100 last year, 95 this year). Full steam ahead on the struggling Phillies. I think we’ll get some really nice ownership on them.