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A couple of blowouts yesterday! Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice whalloped the Red Sox and Michael King shoved against the Cubs while Tatis took his hot streak into the postseason.
So it’s elimination day just like that. It’s pretty rough to play 162 games and have it all come down to three games. But what are they going to do? Play best of 29-game series? That would be the fair thing to do!
We’re sure to see some wild things today in elimination games for the Phillies, Astros, Red Sox, and Cubs. Those SP outings could be cut off in a hurry. And that matters quite a bit for DFS/betting purposes.
Game Info
The Astros take on Sean Burke and take the top spot. They’re the biggest favorite of the day and have almost a half run more in implied total.
The second best spot is the Padres against Kevin Gausman. Gausman can go out there and shove. He’s very boom-or-bust, but it’s been a lot more bust this year. He has a 4.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with the Cubs on a 27% K% and 5% BB%. So that’s a very good K-BB%. HOWEVER, if that splitter isn’t there and he’s walking a couple guys early on, it could be a very short night for him with the Cubs in this elimination spot.
The Braves are going with Tyler Mahle for game two. Their rotation is pretty weak behind Sale. Mahle has been great with the Braves (1.99 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 23% K%, 4% BB%), but that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly an MLB ace. I like the Phillies to score some runs in this game.
The next highest implication is the Yankees against Sonny Gray. Sonny’s 2.72 ERA wasn’t really backed up by his 15% K-BB%. He benefited from an 11% HR/FB this year. But he’s a veteran with postseason experience, and the Yankees lineup is still pretty weak-ish outside of last night’s hero Ben Rice.
It’s Max Fried trying to finish the series for the Yankees, so the Red Sox don’t have it easy tonight after seeing Schlittler for 117 pitches last night. They’re dead last in implied total.
Hunter Brown goes for the Astros after they used eight different pitchers last night. They’ll want some innings from Brown, he’s probably their 2nd best available pitcher (Hader), but that doesn’t mean they’re going to let him out to dry if it’s not going well. The White Sox aren’t an offense the projections like very much, but they have a bunch of hitters who can handle the bat and some big home run bats in the middle of the lineup. The projections don’t like Hunter Brown much at all, they’re the top projected lineup in my model.
The Cubs are up against Nick Pivetta, who had an awesome season while he was healthy. 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 30% K%, 5.7% BB%. He threw 87 pitches in his last outing of the season and racked up 15 whiffs, so he’s back to a normal workload-wise.
The Padres hardly had to use their bullpen at all last night. They got seven from King, one from Yuki Matsui, and one from Joe Musgrove. I would think they’ll be deploying Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon unless it’s a huge Cubs blowout. So this isn’t a good spot at all for the Cubs, they’re going to face a bunch of good pitching.