Matt Boyd vs. Reds
The Reds are pretty punchless against left-handed pitchers. They have just a .621 team OPS against lefties this year. The one thing they do well is walk (10%), but Boyd is a good command pitcher who doesn’t give much away for free. The way to beat Boyd is with the long ball. This game is in Cincy, which boosts dingers, but the Reds’ team .282 xwOBA and 6.0% Brl% negate that risk a bit.
I like Boyd getting through five innings here for -500. That’s not an appealing price, of course, but it just feels very, very safe. For -120 or so you can get him to get through six innings.
Or you can just stream the guy in today if available. Boyd is underrated, and the Reds are bad against lefties. That’s all I’m trying to say!
Daulton Varsho in Tampa
It’s not about the opposing pitcher here. Drew Rasmussen is solid.
The target here is Varsho’s fly ball rate. Since last season, he has a 34% FB% against right-handed pitching. That is seven points above the league average. This year, he’s hit a fly ball on 39% of his batted balls and has already homered seven times.
So he’s likely to get a ball or two in the air tonight. And if he can pull one of those, I don’t think there’s a better park for a homer. Steinbrenner Field has given up 19 home runs on fly balls hit under 100mph this year. A fly ball hit by a left-handed bat in Tampa Bay is a fantastic outcome for your fantasy teams, DFS lineups, and betting slips this year.