Back with another edition of Money Matchups before the big weekend! Here’s what I’ve got for your Friday night slate.
Mariners Fly Ballers vs. Zebby Matthews
Matthews is an exciting prospect. He has a great history of command and strikeout ability (although they have never exactly come at the same time). The one thing that he’s been very poor at in the Major League is keeping the ball in the yard. He has surrendered 11 home runs in 11 big league starts. All 11 of those were last year, so he’s survived two starts this year without giving up the longball.
But that’s isn’t because he’s suddenly keeping the ball on the ground. His 29% GB% in two outings this year is an absurdly low number.
That gives the M’s an elevated shot at hitting dingers tonight. We’d like to target the Seattle bats who have proven to be great at getting the ball in the air. Dating back to 2024:
→ Cal Raleigh: 37% FB%
→ Dylan Moore: 32% FB%
→ Jorge Polanco: 30% FB%
We’ll always favor the platoon advantage, and indeed, Zebby has had some trouble with lefties in his young career (.384 xwOBA). I like Raleigh and Polanco’s chances of going yard tonight.
Jorge Polanco To Homer +400
Cal Raleigh To Homer +245