My Perfect Draft + "MY GUYS"
Dreams of a draft going exactly how I want it to, plus my final list of favorite targets at each position
Have a question for Jon or Tim? Ask it through the mailbag and you’ll get an answer during the weekly podcast.
This will be year three of writing this post. The original idea came from Adam Levitan, who does this for fantasy football drafts every summer. It’s an awesome idea, and I’m happy to have stolen it.
In this post, I’ll imagine a 12-team league where I pick wherever I want to pick, and all of my favorite targets fall to me.
We’ll go 30 rounds and fill out these positions:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OFx5, UTx2, SPx8, RPx3, BENCH x5
I’ll take some liberties when I need to. The point of this post is really to show you, once again, who my favorite guys to draft are while keeping things mostly balanced between categories.
It’s the perfect draft, not a draft I actually expect to be able to pull off. But I’ve been fair enough with it that it could happen somewhere. You’ll see what I mean right away. Let’s bust into it.
1st Round: Elly De La Cruz
I’m taking the 10th pick in this hypothetical draft, and hypothetically, Elly falls to me. And that’s reasonable. He falls to #10 about a third of the time. Maybe somebody jumped ahead on Skenes and Skubal or something in this bad boy.
I love Elly this year. He was clearly playing hurt last year, and it crushed his production. His first few months were elite. He lowered his K% significantly and has made steady gains there since debuting. It seems like EDLC is developing into a top-five fantasy pick in a hurry, and it never hurts to nab 50-steal upside right away.
2nd Round: Kyle Tucker
Getting Tucker at #15 would be pretty fortunate, but it’s not unheard of. And again, we’re talking about perfection here.
Tucker is going 12th-13th ever since landing with the Dodgers. Maybe I trade up a spot or something. The five-category production for Tucker in this lineup could be insane. His best season so far was 2023, when he scored 97 runs, hit 29 bombs, drove in 112, stole 30 bases, and slashed .284/.369/.517. This is a better offense than he’s ever been on, and it’s a good park to boot.
So I get things rolling with two stud hitters, as we often do. I’ve got 50 projected homers, 57 projected steals, 186 runs, and 156 RBI with a batting average above .260. Not a bad start!
3rd Round: Wyatt Langford
Let’s just keep the 20-20 guys flowing. I’m reaching for Langford here. This would be the 34th pick of the draft, and Langford’s recent ADP is 44. There could be a stud pitcher sitting there that would take me away from Langford, but in this hypothetical draft, I’m locking him in.
2025 was a pretty disappointing year for Langford with multiple oblique issues and some cold streaks. But the dude still went 22-22-.243. He’s going to be a 30-30 guy at some point in his career, and I think it could get started this year.
I’ve got a ton of steals now without the most batting average, and I could probably use some more pop. But it’s a great core to start with in this five-outfielder setup.
4th Round: Hunter Greene
Time to get an ace. Maybe there’s a little bit of volume risk with Hunter Greene since he missed so much time last year. But it wasn’t time lost to an arm issue. So I feel good about him, and the dude is so, so good. His fastball is nearly unmatched in the league, and that alone takes you quite a long ways. I’m willing to take one of the big three SPs this year, but most of the time I won’t. So I’ll be targeting this Greene/Gilbert/deGrom/Sale range for my SP1 most of the time.
This post is totally free, but most of the juice at MLB DW is behind the paywall. Sign up today to get access to everything else going on here at MLB DW. Articles, podcasts, tools, projections, reports, and more. Check out the about page here for more information.
5th Round: Mookie Betts
A second shortstop, but I can’t pass up on this price for Mookie. And I do not mind at all having two of the big four Dodgers bats. They’re going to score quite a few runs this year. Imagine having Tucker and Betts when they go to Denver for a four-game set.
I don’t need a shortstop in this build, but I’m wanting to fill that 2B/SS spot with a shortstop since it’s so much deeper than second. The price is too good to pass up on, and his batting average helps me out after taking Elly and Langford so far.
6th Round: Ben Rice
Catchers and relievers will typically go later in home leagues compared to these NFBC draft-and-holds. So I think getting Rice at pick 63 is perfectly reasonable. I just might be drafting 35 bombs with a .275 batting average and 200 R+RBI from my catcher here. Maybe he’ll sit once a week when a lefty is on the bump against them, but Rice might prove to be the second-best offensive catcher in the league this season.
7th Round: Austin Riley
When in doubt - draft more homers. The price is a steal on Riley this year as well. This is just a value pick. He’s my favorite third base target, and I’m loving locking him in in the seventh round.
That said, this would be pick #82, and his ADP is 64. So it would be quite a fall for Riley. But you could swap him and Rice in this and have a shot. Again, catchers can fall a lot further in home leagues, so Rice might end up with an ADP closer to 80 in those situations. Betts + Riley are priority infield targets of mine this year.
8th Round: Tyler Soderstrom
He’s an outfielder as well, but in this draft I will end up using him as my first baseman. I’m a big fan of Bryce Harper this year, but I’d ideally wait a little bit longer and grab Soderstrom and this impending further breakout season after. There are more gains to be had even after what we got from him last year.
subscribe to the MLB Data Warehouse podcast wherever you get your pods, and drop a five-star rating and comment while you’re at it!
9th Round: Edwin Diaz
Reliever ADP is tough to nail down. This draft is a “home league” draft where you have 12 teams, 30 rounds, and a pretty high quality waiver wire plus trade opportunities. Closers aren’t going to go that early in these leagues. So I might even be massively jumping the true ADP, but I want to make the point that I do want Diaz. I also considered Jhoan Duran or Cade Smith. I’m definitely looking to get one of these elite RPs. I’ll likely wait for someone else to break the seal on RPs, but I’ll be following immediately after that, and hopefully that means I get Diaz (Mason Miller would be the other guy likely to go #1).
10th Round: Nico Hoerner
We’re in need of a second baseman and some more batting average, and Hoerner lines up nicely. I think he’s going to line up nicely in a lot of people’s drafts this year. Plenty of teams will be sitting here around the 10th round without a 2B and hurting a bit in average and steals. Hoerner does it for me. And he might mess around and hit a dozen homers too, there’s a little bit of power here.
11th Round: Emmet Sheehan
It’s time for a PITCHING RUN. Ten picks in and I have just Hunter Greene and Edwin Diaz. It’s a bold strategy, cotton, but we’ll be feeling a lot better about it in a couple rounds.
I love Sheehan so much. He’s probably the Dodgers fifth-best starter, but I think he’ll get in there early on. Dude might start the second game or something with Snell not available and the Dodgers obviously wanting to baby walk it with Ohtani and Glasnow. I thinkt he volume dudes are going to be Yamamoto and Sheehan.
12th Round: Jacob Misiorowski
So yeah, Greene + Sheehan isn’t the most confident rotation. Eury Perez very nearly made this post, and you’ll see him at the bottom when I give the full pool of players I considered.
But I’m not trying to miss on Misiorowski this year. The upside is stupid. Like really, really stupid. I guess he can’t throw more than 160 innings or something this year, but there is like 33% K%, 9% BB%, sub-three ERA, and 1.10 WHIP upside here. I’m really not concerned with the command, he threw a bunch of strikes with the heater last year. That’s more than enough for me to jump up on him to make sure I lock it in this year.
13th Round: Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen is a tougher click in those quality starts leagues, but he’s so safe for the ratios, and that’s what we need in this build. I love him and his teammate Ryan Pepiot this year as they get the big advantage of making their home stats in Tropicana again.
14th Round: Ryan Walker
I paid up for a closer already, but let’s grab another one before a big cliff happens. Walker isn’t great, the strikeouts aren’t really there, but with Randy Rodriguez out for the year, there’s not much competition for saves here. The Giants should be at least around a .500 team and it’s a great park to pitch in. I like the price a lot on Walker this year for your saves-only leagues.
15th Round: MacKenzie Gore
Gore has SP1 type of upside. In round 15, we’re getting into the part of the draft where you want to mostly focus on upside. You’ll be replacing a lot of these guys anyways, so we want to go for the dudes who could pay off like ten rounds worth of value if things go right.
The inconsistent and frustrating lefty gets into a new organization here, going from Washington to Texas. That’s good for wins, and probably even good for the park stuff. Globe Life has played as a pitcher’s paradise the last two years. I’m not 100% sure that sticks this year, but it’s a point in his Gore’s favor. There is massive, massive upside for Gore. I can’t believe he’s this cheap (ADP 170).
Upgrade to MLB DW Pro to get access to the full array of in-season daily projections and tools.
16th Round: Jac Caglianone
I think you saw this one coming, right? I’m not trying to miss on Caglianone this year. You can read my full takes in the Royals preview or in the number of breakout picks articles and stuff I’ve done. Cags seems to have these elite power + contact skills. He was crazy unlucky last year, and we’re betting pretty confidently on his ability to lift the ball more this year. It could be a 30-homer, .280-average type of season for the guy.
17th Round: Bryan Abreu
One more reliever. You probably won’t even have to draft Abreu this high in home leagues. Josh Hader is not definitely out at the beginning of the year. But I’m betting against his health after all of the stuff we’ve seen so far this winter. Abreu is one of the league’s best relievers (25% K-BB%, 2.71 JA ERA last year), and he’ll be piling up the saves for as long as Hader is on the shelf.
If Hader were out of the picture, I believe Abreu would be around a top five pick at the closer position. That’s the upside. And in a holds league, he really can’t fail. This hypothetical league is saves-only, so I might end up dropping him early on if Hader gets back and takes the 9th inning again, but that’s fine, you can find replacement saves pretty easily in a 12-teamer.
18th Round: Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds is still young enough to believe in, he was unlucky last year, and now the Pirates lineup is juiced up. We’ve been paying like a 10th-round cost for Reynolds for a few years before this. It’s a perfect buy-low situation. Reynolds is going to pay off this price tag with ease this year.
19th Round: Caleb Durbin
I felt okay about my steals total at the beginning there, and I added more with Nico Hoerner. But you can’t go to sleep on steals for nine rounds and still feel great about it. So we’ll take the upside on the Durbinator. I’m not sure if we’ll get more than a handful of homers from him (I do think that’s possible, though), but I feel very good about him hitting for a decent batting average and swiping a bunch of bags in Boston.
20th Round: Marcus Semien
My preferred second baseman! I’m even reaching a bit in this draft to make sure I get him. I don’t mind the draft strategy of being dead last to pick a 2B, but in this case, I do already have Nico Hoerner. So Semien goes into a UTIL spot or maybe just on the bench until we see what it looks like.
We get the sneaky 20-20 upside with the veteran, and we get to see what happened as he escapes Globe Life Park and ends up in a pretty studly Mets lineup.
21st Round: Shane Smith
Time to pile up our favorite sleeper SPs. We start with the White Sox probable Opening Day starter in Shane Smith. Love his fastball, love his changeup, love how good he was after being pretty much forced onto a big league roster by the Rule V draft selection. Check out how he finished last year after getting settled!
22nd Round: Connelly Early
Hopefully we know what the plan is for Early by the time we’re doing drafts. If he’s starting in AAA or in the bullpen, I probably wouldn’t make this selection. But I don’t think he’ll be held out of the big league rotation for long with all of the great indicators he has going on.
23rd Round: Braxton Ashcraft
Right back to another young arm, and this time we have job security. Ashcraft is a popular breakout pick, but for good reasons! Good stuff, good command, and he looks the part.
24th Round: Carlos Correa
I’m needing a 1B/3B, so I’m happy to wait for Correa here and take what he’ll give me. He’s one of my veteran breakout candidates as he is ready to spend another full year (for whatever part of which he can stay healthy) in Houston as probably the #4-#5 hitter.
25th Round: Mike Burrows
We’re piling up some Astros. I love Burrows’ changeup, and I love that the Astros are adding a sinker. If he can tunnel and locate the four-seamer and sinker moderately well, the velo is enough to set up the devastating changeup and faciliate a huge breakout season for Burrows.
26th Round: Jordan Lawlar
Upside, upside, upside! You shouldn’t be buying boring, safe players here. You know what kind of roster turnover we get in fantasy leagues. Lean into it. Take Lawlar and his 20-20 breakout upside, and if he sucks total ass in April, just bail and find the next guy.
27th Round: Carson Benge
Same story with Benge as with Lawlar. We have no idea if he’ll handle the transition from AAA to the MLB. His next MLB regular season start will be his first. But he has a five-tool type of profile, and he got the Tim Kanak seal of approval. We might see Benge hitting lead-off for the Mets before long. Big upside for a cheap cost.
28th Round: Dylan Beavers
Getting the MLB DW darling Dylan Beavers in the 28th round, I can’t believe this is my life. No minor league hitter shows a higher floor than Beavers. He does everything well. You could argue that he does nothing at an elite level, but for a rookie you have to feel so good about this guy. I could see 70 runs, 22 homers, 70 RBI, 17 steals, and a .265 batting average. The discount right now is about his uncertain playing time. But we’re betting on his great plate discipline and hit tool making the MLB transition smooth, and that will force him into the lineup over dudes like Tyler O’Neill and Jeremiah Jackson. Right??
29th Round: Cade Cavalli
An Opening Day starter with a 98mph heater and super high GB% in the final rounds of the draft? I’ve talked about Cavalli more than most players. So if you’re not new here, you already know.
30th Round: Simeon Woods Richardson
SWR flashed that splitter again in spring. He looks confident with it. And that was the pitch that took him to another level later on last year. It happened late enough where people didn’t notice it. This is a steal.
I made a mistake with Semien in my CI spot there. Change Durbin or Correa to CI and Semien to UTIL.
MY GUYS!
Here’s everybody at each position I considered for this post.
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal, Hunter Greene, George Kirby, Dylan Cease, Eury Perez, Chase Burns, Emmet Sheehan, Jacob Misiorowski, Ryan Pepiot, Trevor Rogers, Drew Rasmussen, Shota Imanaga, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Smith, Connelly Early, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Reid Detmers, Cade Cavalli, Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel
Catchers: Ben Rice, Augustin Ramirez, Yainer Diaz, Kyle Teel
First Base: Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, Tyler Soderstrom, Spencer Torkelson
Second Base: Jazz Chisholm, Nico Hoerner, Marcus Semien, Brett Baty
Shortstop: Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, Jose Caballero, Ezequiel Tovar, Carlos Correa, Masyn Winn
Third Base: Jazz Chisholm, Austin Riley, Caleb Durbin, Carlos Correa, Brett Baty, Jordan Lawlar
Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr., Kyle Tucker, Wyatt Langford, Tyler Soderstrom, Jac Caglianone, Bryan Reynolds, Jasson Dominguez, Adolis Garcia, Carson Benge, Dylan Beavers
I’ve laid it all out for you guys this year. It’s been the best offseason we’ve ever had by far. I’ve spent more time on this stuff than anybody else in the content creation business, and it’s been a blast. But let’s hope that it pays off and we smash some fantasy baseball leagues this year. We will certainly be coming back to this post at the end of the year to see how it goes.
It is hard for me to translate this to a 15-team NFBC auction. Your top 5 starters and 2 relievers cost $110 at recent AAVs...