POST IS NOT COMPLETE YET
There are four games I haven’t gotten to yet. It’s been a weird week for me and I haven’t been able to go full-sports writer with other stuff going on. But I don’t want to make everybody wait until Friday afternoon to get the thing since it’s so much to read. So I’m publishing now, and the rest of the games will be completed by Friday late morning.
First bad lineup of the year, so I’m anxious to make it right. Hopefully some of you avoided the mistakes I made and have gone 3/4 or 4/4 in cash this week.
I even figured it was a good week to embrace the chalk plays in tournaments. I threw 150 lineups into the 50 cent tourney, but almost all of them were ruined by those pretty popular plays that did not work out. There will be weeks where the million dollar lineup looks a lot like one that you might’ve played in cash. I’m waiting for one of those weeks, it’ll come. And I’m going to be there for it with some $10 Hundo entries or better.
Week 5 Implications
Top of the board:
Two big old games this week:
Lions vs. Cardinals
A Lions offense that is humming, a Cardinals offense that is willing to go into big volume through the air, and two very beatable defenses
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Maybe better for real life than for fantasy as both defenses are good (the Seahawks defense is better than good), but a game that should be competitive enough to get the studs into bigger volume projections
The ugly:
Texans vs. Titans
The Texans have been more fantasy-friendly than expected, but it’s not a pedal-to-the-metal offense, and the Titans are one team that we try to avoid.
Browns vs. Jets
Two teams playing a lot better than they did a year ago, but just a 39.5-point total. Both offenses are very hard to trust.
Bengals vs. Dolphins
We need injury report clarity on the Bengals side. But if Chase & Higgins both miss, that is the game with the least offensive talent by a mile
Bengals vs. Dolphins
STILL TO COME. Waiting for clarity on Chase & Higgins.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Pass Catchers
Recap
Raiders vs. Patriots
Average-looking game environment in New England. The Patriots defense has looked good, but the Raiders offense has done enough and can create some decent game environment.
The Patriots beat the Bills last week to get their offense grade above 100, but it’s still still been pretty ugly overall. They have been forced to spread the ball around a bunch and they’re splitting things in the backfield. So it’s tough to find DFS plays on their side. But let’s go into this.
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye ($6,300) has held at this price all year. He ran for 54 yards last week and threw three touchdowns. So he looked a lot more like his 2025 self in that one. I thought he was a pretty nice buy-low in this piece last week, and that looks right - but I didn’t do anything about it myself so what’s even the point?
I really haven’t seen much at QB a few games into this one, so I’m not totally off of the idea of playing Maye. We kinda thought he’d end up being a $6800-$7000 QB this year, but he’s down here at $6,300 in a fine matchup.
Running Backs
Last two weeks on the Patriots side:
59% of snaps to Stevenson, 38% to Henderson. Henderson really sucked last week, so it looks more and more like Stevenson is the guy. He’s just $5,500 here and listed as questionable after he missed practice Wednesday for a reason we don’t know. If that’s worse than it sounds and he misses the game, the TreVeyon Henderson $5,000 gets right into play. But there’s no reason for us to think that Stevenson will miss.
It’s probably too thin to play Stevenson even though the price is about $500 less than what I expected. But I don’t hate it too much, and I think he’s a strong play in season-long leagues.
Ashton Jeanty ($7,200) goes over $7K. He’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry this year, which is bad, but he has 25 targets and 165 receiving yards, plus two touchdowns. So he’s a very good receiving back and should find his way into some rushing touchdowns eventually. I just don’t think I want to pay this price against a good defense. What I thought might happen is his passing game usage dry up with Bowers back, but it hasn’t. He has 9-105-0 in two weeks with Bowers on a 14% target share, which is really solid for a running back.
Pass Catchers
The Brock Bowers ($7,000) thing is nuts. They’re just using him like a wide receiver; he’s hardly even a tight end. Bowers in two games:
79 routes
31.6% target per route
2.56 yards per route
24 targets
202 yards
2 TD
He is an elite wide receiver at the tight end position. It’s not as though we have a misprice here, but when you start considering replacement level, Bowers becomes a guy you want to have on your list most weeks. That works better when we don’t have high-priced RBs we really want to play. But we’ll see if we can fit him for this spot.
That’s gotta be it on the Raiders side, it’s so concentrated to Jeanty and Bowers right now.
Romeo Doubs ($5,000) got it going last week with two touchdowns. He posted a team-high 29% TPRR and soaked up nine targets. Since week two when AJ Brown was gone:
Those are pretty nice numbers for Doubs. He went 3-96-0 in week two and 3-49-0 in week three before the breakout 6-58-2 last week. Three pretty tough defenses faced in those first three games, so it’s been a nice buy-low opportunity on the Patriots passing game. Except that AJ Brown will be back before too much longer and that will hurt these guys.
But I can’t say I hate the play on Doubs this week. Decent matchup, and he’s synced up with Maye pretty well. The floor doesn’t feel great; the Patriots are still suspect and the targets have been spread out more than we like. But I’ll throw him on the list.
Recap
The news on Rhamondre Stevenson could make a big difference. It still sounds to me like he’ll play, but there’s a chance that something happens there and we get a fuller workload from TreVeyon Henderson. Brock Bowers is in play on the Raiders side, probably until he gets to $7500 or more, which he probably will. Drake Maye is also a considerable play, but he’d be more comfortable with AJ Brown available.
And I’ll give Ashton Jeanty a spot on the list just because there aren’t many names there right now.