Implied Totals
Bills 27.75 (vs. NE)
Ravens 27.5 (vs. TEN)
Bengals 27.0 (vs. JAX)
Chiefs 26 (vs. LV)
Those are the big four on the board. The highest O/U’s:
CIN vs JAX: 51.5
DET vs. CAR: 50.5 (not on main slate)
BUF vs. NE: 48.5
ATL vs. NOR: 48.5 (not on main slate)
KAN vs. LV: 47.5
IND vs. WAS: 47.5 (not on main slate)
HOU vs. DAL: 47.5
The lowest totals:
MIA vs. MIN: 38.5
PIT vs. CLE: 38.5 (not on main slate)
TB vs. GB: 42.5
NYJ vs. CHI: 42.5
SEA vs. LAC: 42.5
Cardinals at Giants
We’ve got three weeks of data now so we can start talking about team grades.
Two below-average teams on both sides of the ball (this uses yards per play, which still wouldn’t have stabilized yet, but we’re getting closer). Arizona has shown the ability to score points with Jacoby Brissett and company, and they are very willing to let Brissett chuck the ball 40+ times.
The problem is that the Giants are still going with Jameis Winston, who has gone 24/49 for a 4.7 YPA this year on a pathetic -0.42 EPA. They traded for JJ McCarthy, which tells you something about Winston too. So we don’t think the Giants will push this game to being a shootout.
Volume is so important in DFS. We want players on offenses that run a bunch of plays, it makes it a whole lot easier for them to get there for us. This game isn’t going to be super important for me, but the Cardinals do have some plays to drill into.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett ($5,000) needs to be pushed into a high-volume game to get there. The Giants aren’t going to do it. Jameis Winston ($4,500) is up $500 and has proven again that he’s not good. This is not the game to draft a QB from.
I’m going to be off the Giants side of this game entirely.
Running Backs
My first hunch in this game was that we might be able to use Jeremiyah Love ($5,800). His data by week:
Week 1: 32 snaps, 11 attempts, 15 routes, 4 targets
Week 2: 19 snaps, 9 attempts, 8 routes, 3 targets
Week 3: 51 snaps, 21 attempts, 21 routes, 5 targets
We learned last week that he’s the guy they want in the game when it’s going fast-paced and they really need to make some plays. He scored 22 fantasy points last week on 4.3 yards per carry and a 5-19-1 line through the air.
That sent Tyler Allgeier down to 30 snaps, two attempts, and four targets. But they were playing catch up to the 49ers in a high-scoring affair. That’s unlikely to be the case this week. So will they go back to a backfield split? That’s quite possible. Allgeier’s coaches have always seemed to like him, he was taking meaningful snaps from Bijan Robinson for a couple of years there.
So it would not be surprising at all to see this go back to a split. Playing Love in cash is betting that last week was the new game plan. And that might not be a good bet. He was a big-play star in college, but we haven’t seen it yet in the NFL (3.9 yards per carry). If Allgeier were out for the game, I think Love would become a smash play. But I have enough doubts about his workload to be hesitant about making him a cash play. But he’s going on the list.
Pass Catchers
When you throw the ball 51 times, some pass catchers will smash. The volume expectation is way down from that height this week.
But we know where the ball goes - Trey McBride ($6,500) and Michael Wilson ($5,500).
Nearly 60% of the targets go to those two. Wilson has a 25% TPRR; McBride’s at 34%. Wilson has 1.4 yards per route run (YPRR), McBride’s at 2.1. Those are the guys. But the prices have trended up, so neither guy is a super high priority, but they should both be in consideration.
But I have to repeat it every over and over again. Any little problem we find with a play makes it tough to play them in our single cash lineup. These things have to be perfect. And if the Cardinals dominate the game and run it a bunch with Love & Allgeier, Wilson and McBride will have a much tougher time getting a bunch of volume.
Recap
Three Cardinals make the list. That’s Love, McBride, and Wilson. But I’m not confident enough in the Giants ability to push them to put them high on their respective lists.
Titans at Ravens
A 43.5-point total with the Ravens owning most of them. It’s a Derrick Henry week if you’re choosing from that side. These are the spots you want to use that guy in - at home when they should hold a lead.
The shootout isn’t going to happen. The Titans are bad. Cam Ward isn’t an NFL QB right now, so it should be a relatively light volume day for the Ravens passing game. The Ravens defense isn’t a great one, but it’s not awful either, so we’re just going to continue to outright fade the Titans offense until we see Cam Ward make some strides forward (if that ever happens).
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($7,300) got a bit cheaper (-$200). Even in an elite spot like last week against the Cowboys, I couldn’t get to his price in cash. That’s usually not the way to make a solid cash lineup. And as an 11-point favorite at home the ceiling is way lower since we figure this game won’t be a 35-28 affair.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,400) jumps up $700 for this game. He has 24, 16, and 26 carries in his three games this year and has averaged 4.6 yards per tote with 1, 3, and 1 targets.
They have made him a tough click at $8,400. He will need the 100-yard bonus and multiple scores to really make this worthwhile. But this is the most likely spot of the year for him to do such a thing in as a massive favorite at home.
If they’re up 21 in the 4th quarter, they probably won’t play him - but he will also likely have been a part of the 3+ touchdowns that got them up by that much.
I’ll put him on the list; he’s a top 5 play at RB in a vacuum this week, but $8,400 for a non-pass-catching RB isn’t typically the right recipe for DFS cash.
Pass Catchers
If I’m not considering Lamar, I’m not considering a Ravens pass catcher. It’s a thin group. Zay Flowers ($6,900) returned last week and got through the game healthy, so they’ll be fully healthy for this game and that takes away any value. Flowers can, and has, smashed on extremely limited playing time. The dude has gone 10-234-1 on 25 routes this year for goodness sake, but it’s wayyy too thin to consider in this matchup.
Recaps
It’s Derrick Henry ($8,400) or nothing in this game, and it’ll probably end up being nothing. I’m really focused on targeting games I think can get to 50+ points and a bunch of plays run, and this isn’t one of them.
Patriots at Bills
What is going on with the Patriots? They’re 1-2 and got undressed by the Jaguars last week.
Drake Maye has regressed majorly. There are real questions about him after this early-season performance against SEA/PIT/JAX. He doesn’t have much help with his weapons since AJ Brown went out in week one, so it’s too early to jump ship. But it’s not an offense we can trust to play ball with Josh Allen and the Bills right now.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($7,700) struggled last week. He threw for 204 yards on 26 attempts and threw two interceptions. He saved his fantasy day with two more rushing touchdowns (he has six of those in three games now). Now he faces a tough Patriots pass defense and he’s the most expensive QB on the slate as per the usual arrangement.
The Bills have a high points implication, but it needs to be high odds of a shootout to get Josh Allen’s price into this cash lineup. He’s always a play for tourneys, his ceiling is just so high. Maybe some week this year we’ll use him. We’ll need some massive value at WR/TE to get there, and I don’t see it this week. Even if we find it, Josh Allen at this price against the Patriots probably isn’t the right move.
Running Backs
James Cook ($7,400) has averaged six yards per carry this year but has been very limited in the passing game (4-16-0) and has had those six touchdowns pilfered from him by his QB. And now his price comes up $500 for this less-than-great spot. He will get his 17+ carries and there are plenty of touchdowns to go around in this offense, but it’s just not the right spot.
Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled in week two and hit the bench, but came back to play 55% of the snaps (Henderson was at 33%) last week. So he’s still the main guy. They did split the carries pretty evenly last week with him and Henderson, but the offense just couldn’t do anything. I don’t think I need to prove to anybody that neither of these New England running backs are in play while they’re both active and healthy.
Pass Catchers
The Bills pass catchers had a down game last week due to the lack of volume. We’ve already gone over that the Patriots are a tough pass defense. So it’s not a great spot for these guys.
But we’ve seen very positive things from DJ Moore ($5,700) so far. He dominated the targets last week with 10 of Allen’s 25 targets and went 6-67-0. He has a nice 32% target per route run this year, so the volume is there.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) did very little last week on the low volume, but he at least did run a route on almost every drop back. His ceiling seems to be among the highest at the tight end position. But it’s another cash game thing we find. It’s just hard to pay big money for a tight end. Kincaid certainly doesn’t have the same floor as Bowers/McBride, although he’s not at that price range yet either. But the optimal strategy in the normal week is to either pay for Bowers/McBride or find the best play below $4K.
The tourney angle here is that Moore gets shut down by Gonzalez on the outside and the targets filter more to Kincaid. He could smash in this game, I have little doubt about that, it’s just mostly about the price and the worries that the Patriots could slow down the Bills a bit. Kincaid’s going on the list, but I think that’s it from this game.
The Patriots might have to throw it a bunch in this game. It’s usually not a bad idea to get some pass catchers against them. But Maye has played poorly and the targets have been very spread. Weeks 2-3: Hollins 12, Doubs 8, Henry 7, Douglas 7, Stevenson 5, Williams 5, Chism 3, Gilliam 2. Not a good spot.
Recap
These first three games are LAME. I’m putting Kincaid on the list, but I don’t suspect I’ll be using anybody from this one.
Jets at Bears
The Jets were instrumental to last week’s slate. They proved to be good enough to participate in a shootout with the Lions, and now they face a Bears defense that was viewed as one of the worst in the league before the year.
The Bears sure look like a shootout team to mean. Good offense, bad defense. But it’s Case Keenum at QB in all likelihood after his MNF victory. And while he played well, it’s not the same as if Caleb Williams is in there.
Let’s have a look.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith ($5,200) has 215, 247, and 321 passing yards in three games this year. He threw three touchdowns last week. So he can beat bad defenses. But this offense needs pushed, and now he’s without Breece Hall. Can Case Keenum ($4,600) replicate last week and make the Jets run a bunch of plays to get there? It’s possible.
These are two very cheap QBs in decent spots, and we like that. But the game total being at 42.5 is bothersome, and neither guy runs with the ball. We ideally want ceiling from our QB plays, and I don’t think we have it here. And if the touchdowns don’t come, they’ll end up with pretty poor scores. But I don’t completely hate it.
Running Backs
Breece Hall ($6,200) isn’t technically out, but he’s “week to week” and it seems like he’s going to miss this one. Braelon Allen ($5,200) steps into the starter role. The Hall injury happened in the second half last week, so we didn’t get a great look at the role. But Allen played 48% of the snaps and had a role even before Hall got hurt, so we can be pretty confident he’s going to see 12+ touches in this one with upside for 20.
Allen has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry and has just a 13% target per route run, so he’s not a guy oozing with upside who was just waiting for an opportunity. But we like $5,200 running backs who step into starting roles. He should be a bit more expensive, so he’s definitely in play against the Bears.
Let’s look at the Bears backfield numbers for the year:
So it’s about a 60/40 split. Keenum only targeted the RBs three times last week (all to Swift). Swift has averaged three targets per game, so that’s just not a huge part of his role in this offense.
That makes him a pretty tough click; you’ll absolutely need a big play and/or a score for him to smash in this role. I don’t think it works.
Pass Catchers
Keenum’s targets last week: Burden 11, Raymond 7, Odunze 6, Loveland 4, Swift 3. Burden put up a 41% TPRR and 2.3 YPRR, but a 5.1-yard ADoT kept the yardage to 61. He was somewhat lucky to take a shovel pass for a touchdown. I think the floor is pretty nice with Burden ($5,200), and that price is still very affordable.
Kalif Raymond ($3,600) remains very cheap despite leading this offense in yards. He’s gone 19-214-1 on 21 targets in three games. He leads the team in yards per route run, too.
Is it for real? Are three games enough to buy it after he was viewed as the 4th or 5th option in this offense before the year began? Maybe. The price is very attractive, even though it does feel a bit “point chasey” to me. I’m only going to consider him if the price makes everything else work, and I’ll be interested to see what the projections around the industry say.
Colston Loveland ($4,700) shouldn’t be this expensive after seeing just nine targets and a 0.42 YPRR through three games.
Geno Smith has something going with Garrett Wilson ($6,800), who jumps up $700 from his price last week after going 10-107-1 on 14 targets last week. He was aided by Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor being out, but he’s clearly the WR1 and a very good one at that. The price hike makes it a lot tougher. But I’m not counting him out.
Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000) had a breakout game last week with Mason Taylor out. Taylor was the starting TE for the first two weeks; he could return for this one, which would make it a tough buy-high on Sadiq. But Sadiq is very, very good. The Jets used the 16th overall pick on him, so he’s going to get used. If Taylor is out again, I’d consider it. He leads the team in yards per route run at 2.6, and they looked for him in the end zone last week. So he’s an awesome player, but I’d rather do it with Mason Taylor still out just so we can be confident we’ll get 20+ routes from him again.
Recap
There’s some cheap QB potential in this one, but I think the floors are probably a bit too low to really consider. Braelon Allen is the play I’m most interested in, and the Jets pass catching duo of Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq are in play as well. But I’m balking a bit at the price on Wilson, and Sadiq could be a trap if Mason Taylor is active and comes back to play significant snaps, which it seems like he will given what we saw in weeks 1-2.
Jaguars at Bengals
This is the best game environment on the main slate. The Bengals just got carved up by Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and the Jaguars offense has been effective so far.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($6,800) is up there in price. He doesn’t run, so he’s very dependent on the big day through the air. It could happen in this one. I’d stack this game a bunch in tourneys, and the Bengals attack is easy figure out. You play Burrow with Chase AND Higgins and then come back with Parker Washington or maybe even a low-ownership play on Brian Thomas.
For cash, it’s probably not going to be a pocket passer at this price very often. I’ll throw Burrow on the list, because there is a chance this is the price that works. He’s not in the same tier as Allen & Jackson, and his ceiling is pretty huge if this game goes off.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) is the better play of the two, and possibly one of the better QB plays on this particular slate. He’s been very good so far with a +0.26 EPA and 7.7 yards per attempt. He ran for a bunch of touchdowns last year, that would’ve happened last week again had he not strangely taken the knee. The Bengals are a great team to play QBs against, and Lawrence’s price is nice.
Running Backs
Chase Brown ($6,100) is pretty cheap for a guy who has played 71% of the snaps and seen 13 targets in three games. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per game and has a real role in the passing game on a team that can score a bunch of points. So I think he deserves consideration. He’s more of a $6,500-$7,000 running back than a $6K guy; I’d call this a discount.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600) is the Jags main RB. He saw 15 carries and two targets last week while playing 53% of the snaps. They still rotate in Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen, and Ameer Abdullah in there, so the workload is never going to be massive for Tuten. But when the play is designed for a running back, Tuten’s the guy they go to. I wouldn’t consider him a cash play because of the roles that these other RBs have, but the signs have been positive on Tuten thus far.
Pass Catchers
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) are probably the best 1-2 WR duo in the league. They haven’t been healthy together very often in the last few years, but they have been this year, and you can see how even their numbers are:
You get a $2,000 discount on Higgins from Chase despite him having just two fewer targets and 60 more receiving yards than Chase. What separates Chase is the red zone usage. They seem to have close-range plays designed specifically for him, so he ends up with more of the touchdowns. Higgins usually does his scoring on longer plays, as we saw last week.
Chase is properly priced, and you could argue that Higgins is too cheap. So for cash, if you’re playing one, I think it should be Higgins.
There’s a “block” strategy you can play with in DFS. You can play both Chase and Higgins with Burrow and know you’re getting 80%+ of the passing game points. That limits your ceiling, but it raises your floor if you’re really confident the Bengals are going to pile up a bunch of yardage through the air.
On the Jaguars side, it’s been Parker Washington ($6,500) and then everybody else. Washington has run 68 routes, has 15 targets, and the efficiency has been elite with a 34% TPRR and 3.25 YPRR. It wasn’t the best result last week, but he was targeted heavily in the red zone and scored a touchdown to make for a decent day. I think he should be a $7K receiver, so even while he’s up $600 this week, he’s definitely still a considerable play for cash.
Jakobi Meyers ($5,000) leads the team in routes run this year but has just a 15% target share and a 16% TPRR. So he’s not getting much attention from Lawrence even while being on the field a bunch.
Brian Thomas ($4,300) is a buy-low for tourneys. He has lined up against elite corners all year, so this matchup gives him some breathing room. You obviously can’t do it in cash (15% target share, 1.8 YPRR), but for tourneys it’s a great idea to pair with Lawrence and get some lower ownership on the BTJ side.
Recaps
Lots to like in this game.
Trevor Lawrence
Chase Brown
Tee Higgins
Parker Washington
Ja’Marr Chase
Cowboys at Texans
The Cowboys are one of the most fantasy-friendly teams in the game. This looked like their toughest matchup of the year before the season. But the Texans' defense has been average so far, allowing 5.3 yards per play. Their run defense has been stout (3.5 yards per carry), but they’ve been beaten through the air (7.9 yards per attempt - seventh-worst in the league). So maybe it’s not too bad of a spot for the Cowboys after all. They’re back in Texas and playing in a dome, so that’s not a huge concern - even though it would obviously be better if the game were in Dallas.
Quarterbacks
Even with the Texans’ defense not looking as advertised, I still wouldn’t want to jump onto the Cowboys offense. They’re priced right. Dak Prescott ($6,400) has gotten a little cheaper this week, but this price isn’t a steal, and I’m hesitant enough about the Texans defense to not consider it. But game stacks are very much in full force for this contest. That would probably mean Dak → Lamb/Pickes with Nico Collins on the other side.
CJ Stroud ($5,700) gets a great matchup with Dallas who has a bad defense and an offense that can keep the games moving back-and-forth. Stroud just isn’t a very good fantasy QB, though. He has a 6.7 YPA with a -0.06 EPA and a 3:0 TD:INT through three games. Getting Nico Collins back in a boost. I guess it’s not a crazy idea for cash if you just need a cheap QB, but Trevor Lawrence seems like a much better play at a similar price. I don’t think I’ll ever end up on Stroud unless he gets down to $5K.
Running Backs
David Montgomery ($5,700) and Woody Marks ($4,700) have been splitting work. The last two weeks, it’s been Montgomery playing 57% of snaps and Mark at 41%. Montgomery has 17 attempts; Marks has 23. And neither guy is a big playmaker, so they’re off the board until one of the two gets hurt and misses a game.
Javonte Williams ($6,600) ripped off 19-98-1 on the ground last week as that rush attack was working well against the Ravens. This is not the defense to use him again, though, and the Cowboys’ preferred game plan is through the air. Williams has not given up much work to the other guys (76% of snaps, 43 of the 55 RB carries), but he’s not an explosive back, and the volume might be low here if they’re shutting him down early.
Pass Catchers
CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) and George Pickens ($6,300) have been targeted about the same. 26 for Lamb, 25 for Pickens. But Lamb is just the better wide receiver, at least for fantasy leagues. He’s gone 20-309-3 in three games while Pickens is at 16-150-0. Both guys can ruin the other guy's day by hogging the big plays and touchdowns, but to me the prices just seem right, and it’s too hard to guess at it in this potentially lower-scoring spot for the Cowboys.
It’s not a week for me to use the Cowboys. Nico Collins ($7,200) would be a very appealing play if we knew he was healthy. I don’t think there’s much doubt that he’ll play, but using him is a bet on him coming right back to full participation. I think that’s a fantastic buy in tournaments, you’re getting massive ceiling at a low ownership, but it’s not going to be a great cash idea in my head. I’ll put him on the list, though, because we do like lower ownership and huge upside in cash too.
Recap
We don’t often want to fade Cowboys games, but this is probably an exception. I’m not going to call the Texans an average defense because of three games. Both teams are at full strength, so there just aren’t any big discounts on the prices.
My favorite idea would be to play Nico Collins with Dak → Pickens or Lamb in a tourney.
I wouldn’t blame anybody for using Collins in cash, but I don’t think I’ll do it myself.
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