I debuted some detailed projections last week. I hope those treated you well. I’ll probably wait another 2-3 weeks to test for accuracy, but from what I saw, they at least all made some sense.
I apologize for missing the week six review and the MNF Showdown Preview. My wife wanted to take the kids for a day trip up to this huge Christmas store in Michigan, so we did that. Seven hours of driving for a couple of hours in a Christmas store, but it was cool. The kids were super excited and it was nice to take the opportunity to spend an extra day with them since I’m still in between full-time jobs.
Things are going pretty well on that front, which is good news for me but maybe bad news for you NFL readers. If I land a full-time offer, I’m thinking I’m going to take it. I can’t take risks, man. As the sole provider with three kids and a disposition that isn’t the crazy hustler type, I’m best off using the degree and my skills for a very nice salary and benefits.
If that happens, I really doubt I’ll have the time to write up 10+ NFL games every week, but we’ll see how that goes. Let’s get to week seven!
Game Data
Six teams over a 25-point implication on the main slate, as of Tuesday.
The Lions are off their bye and host the Packers. So they’re loaded up for a big performance. Games in Detroit are always going to be a feature for DFS cash games. That’s the big one, and the Packers are on the other side - that’s an offense that can generate a shootout.
We should get Lamar Jackson back for the Ravens in an exciting AFC North matchup with the Bengals in Baltimore. The Bengals had the week to heal up and that one could be a shootout.
The 49ers take their 6-0 record into Atlanta. The Falcons offense wasn’t what we thought it’d be against the Bears, but another week to heal up for Michael Penix and a home game should get them responding to San Francisco’s points. The 49ers are just a very, very good offense who we can rely on to score points in some way.
The Texans have been playing great ball. Probably one of the more surprising offenses of the season, powered by CJ Stroud breaking out. They get the bulk of the 42.5-point O/U in that game.
What do we do with the Rams after losing Davante Adams and coming in so far below their point implication last week? We’ll find out, I guess, but they’re still implied for a good number of points - but nothing like last week.
And the Packers on the other side of Detroit. That’s a great spot for their successful passing game that has been operating almost entirely through their two stud wideouts.
Game-by-game now!
49ers at Falcons
SHORT WEEK ALERT. The 49ers played Monday night in San Francisco and now fly to Atlanta for an early Sunday game. The schedule-makers have done them very few favors this year. But I guess they’re used to the jet lag after they had to go to Australia. But these cross-country flights for early games can turn into letdown spots.
The Falcons defense has played well. I think the Falcons are a team that could make some noise, but they have to get going with a 2-4 record. Falling to 2-5 as a home underdog would put them in a tough spot. But if they can get into the playoffs and stay healthy, I think they’ve got a shot at a couple of postseason wins.
Mike Evans is questionable after leaving Monday night early. It’s Achilles tendonitis; the early comments sounded like he has a real shot to play this week. But they’re 6-0 and don’t have to take as many risks as other teams right now, their goal might shift toward just having Evans healthy late in the season rather than getting him in there every week. So that’s a difference-maker for the 49ers offense.
The Falcons didn’t smash against the Bears like I thought they would. Just 4.9 yards per play last week and they got beaten pretty handily. But Penix ended up throwing for 225 yards and three touchdowns, so they ended up with a decent game, but most of it came late when they were playing super fast to catch up.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy ($6,600) probably isn’t worth the $6,600 in this particular spot. The Falcons can play defense, and the 49ers are happy to win games efficiently. Purdy has a high floor, but less than 20 fantasy points in his last two.
The 49ers are +2% in PROE, so they’re happy to throw the ball, and they’re very efficient when doing that with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. With Evans questionable, the game on the road, and up against a good defense - the ceiling just doesn’t seem to be there for Purdy.
Michael Penix ($5,300) has gone over 20 fantasy points just once, last week when they were scrambling for points late. The Falcons are very run-heavy. They’d rather win the game with the Robinsons than with Penix chucking it 40 times. And he doesn’t run, so it’s a tough click on Penix even at the very cheap price tag. But it’s not a horrible play at this price.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson ($8,500) is down $200 from last week. The 49ers defense has allowed 3.6 yards per carry. That’s seventh-best in the league. Bijan gets a bunch of work in the pass game and is a top two running back in the league, so the defensive matchup doesn’t matter too much for a guy like this. The work will be there, he can make huge plays against anybody, and this game could force a few more targets onto him. He’s always in play, and we like the price coming down a bit, but I think he’s going to project well below Jahmyr Gibbs, who we’ll get to later.
Christian McCaffrey ($7,600) had a big ole game on Monday. 16 carries, 64 yards, nine catches, 53 yards, and two rushing touchdowns. The workload is back to near his peak. He has 20 xFP per week since week one when they went heavily to Kaelon Black. He has 67 carries to Black’s 31 in this time.
He’s going to get the ball, he’s going to catch a bunch of passes, and the price is a healthy amount below the Bijan/Gibbs. So he’s in play, but I’ll re-iterate that it’s not a pristine matchup going across the country for the early game and facing a defense that can play. We love the 26 opportunities last week, but from the plot so far that looks like the high water mark for him rather than something we can expect weekly.
Pass Catchers
Drake London ($7,500) let us down last week in the cash lineup. The touchdowns went elsewhere, but he still did see 10 targets. And his workload for the year is pristine:
A 30% target per route rate is elite. 4.02 yards per route is super elite. He’s one of the best in the league and Michael Penix is constantly looking for him. It’s a good spot for him since we expect the game to be competitive. The Falcons probably won’t be able to run the ball heavily in the second half to kill the clock, so we can use London in cash again this week. He should probably be $8,000 or something.
Kyle Pitts ($4,000) has found some success the last two weeks.
He saw just a 12% target share in weeks 3-4 with Penix, but that’s up to 21% in the last two weeks. He’s played more snaps, ran more routes, seen more targets, and gone 10-102-3 in the last two games. That’s interesting. The floor is still pretty low since we have mostly seen Penix opt for other targets than Pitts, but maybe that relationship is getting better. I wish he were $3500 rather than $4K, but this price might work out fine. Pitts is on the list, but it would be a play I’d rather make based on the price and how it fits in the lineup.
The 49ers data from the last four games:
It has been the George Kittle ($5,700) show. And it’s national tight ends day or something this week, right? There’s no way that matters in reality, but people will talk about. He’s a touchdown machine with five this year. He’s gone 4-70-1, 5-24-0, and 5-69-1 in the last three weeks. I’m really not sure he’s worth $5,700 - that price has gotten a little bit out of control. But if Mike Evans is out, Kittle gets a boost and I’d probably consider him in that case if the pricing works.
Deebo Samuel is also out for this game. I didn’t see that at first! So if Evans can’t go, there’s a lot of opportunity up for grabs for the 49ers. I’d push that usage more onto CMC and Kittle. Last week, nobody other that CMC/Evans/Kittle saw more than two targets. The other route-runners:
Jordan Watkins 29
Brandin Cooks: 15
Watkins is super cheap at $3,300, but saw just one target on his 29 routes, so that’s not good. He’d have to get more looks if Evans misses, but it’ll be pretty thin.
Recap
It’s a 50.5-point total and we have injuries making a difference. The 49ers pass game could be missing two major players. I’d rather just play CMC and Kittle in that situation, but Jordan Watkins $3,300 might project as a decent punt if he’s going to have to be on the field for 90%+ of the snaps.
I like Bijan and London as usual, and we’re seeing an uptrend in Kyle Pitts usage. Those Falcons are in play. But we have two pretty good defenses in this one, and I’m feeling like this game will come in below the 50-point O/U.
Lots of potential plays in this game, but for now, nothing worthy of “first click” status. CMC might become that if Evans misses.
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