We will have some smaller slates this year as bye weeks begin and we get a slew of international games. But for this week, we have a 12-gamer, which is as big as it gets.
Top Implied Totals
Chiefs (vs. MIA): 29
Bills (vs. LAC): 28.75
49ers (vs. ARI): 28
Ravens (vs. DAL): 27.75
Lions (vs. NYJ): 47.5
Lots of studs on the board this week. I expect we’ll have a lot of plays we want to jam in. Plus, we have a few key injuries to react to along the way.
So much of NFL DFS is getting the game environment right. There’s a lot of luck in that; it’s tough to know what team is going to run 80 plays and throw it 50 times, but we need to make our plays based on the best guesses there. I want to spend a little more time on game environment this week since we have two games’ worth of data on each team.
Shootout Potential
BAL at DAL: 52.5 O/U, BAL -3
BUF at LAC: 50.5 O/U, BUF -7
DET vs. NYJ: 50.5, DET -6.5
Clear top three this week. At least four very good offenses here (BAL/DAL/BUF/DET), and LAC/NYJ have some offensive potential as well. Those are also mostly concentrated offenses as well, so we’ll want to lean on those game environments.
Pass Rates
The pass-heaviest teams in the league so far adjusted for situation:
Cowboys
Bills
Saints
49ers
Steelers
Chiefs
Panthers
Cardinals
Bengals
Patriots
The lowest:
Falcons
Chargers
Dolphins
Seahawks
Colts
Titans
Eagles
Vikings
Giants
Bears
We’ll keep that in mind as we go, but let’s start it up.
Chargers at Bills
We go right into one of our big games. The Chargers are sitting at 0-2 and this brutal stretch of schedule begins in Buffalo. Maybe they’ll just dud again and kill this game environment, but with Herbert + Hampton + McConkey, you like their chances of pushing Josh Allen a little bit.
The Bills have thrown it 63% of the time and +7.6% over expectation. Josh Allen looks as good as ever, so they’re going to score points.
The Chargers offense has been bad. -0.23 EPA per play (awful), -15% PROE% (awful), 4.7 yards per play (awful).
So leaning into this game heavily is a bet on the Chargers improving in this spot. But the Bills defense is far from elite, and they’re below average at yards per play allowed so far.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000) has paid off his price this year. He’s gone nuts, I don’t need to tell you that. He has more red zone carries (6) than James Cook (5), and he’s run in three touchdowns already. Plus 582 passing yards with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio and 9.4 yards per attempt.
The problem is that there will inevitably be some very nice QB plays $2000+ less than him. And $2000 gets you a massive upgrade at RB or WR. I never end up playing a QB this expensive in cash, unless the game environment is absolutely insane. If this was Bills vs. Chiefs or Bills vs. Lions (again), then it would be more considerable. This is the first game I’m writing, but I’m almost sure I won’t have Josh Allen in final consideration for my single lineup.
Tourney note: You can play Allen by himself since he runs for so many TDs. But if he goes for 40+, usually he’s taking a pass catcher with him.
Justin Herbert ($5,800) is getting cheaper, but for good reason. He has gone 32/54 for 401 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a -0.1 EPA. He’s been really bad. You can game stack this one, but wouldn’t that put Josh Allen as your QB? Do the Bills ever play in a 60+ point game where Allen doesn’t account for 4+ touchdowns?
Running Backs
The good news for James Cook ($6,400) is that he’s not splitting with any other running back. The other RBs have two carries in two games. The reason it’s tough to play Cook is because of the touchdowns. Allen has four rushing scores, Cook has one. He still has 5.6 yards per carry and 192 yards in two games, but he’s gone just 4-16-0 on seven targets in two games, so the floor is pretty low if the touchdowns go to Allen again. He won’t be in consideration for cash.
Tourney thought: Maybe you can play Herbert + Cook in a game stack, that would be the angle that Cook ends up with the rushing scores in this one, limiting Allen’s score.
On the Chargers side, Omarion Hampton ($6,800) has 35 carries; backup Keaton Mitchell has just nine. So he’s the clear RB1, no competition there. However, just two targets for two catches and 21 receiving yards. The Chargers playing from behind would probably be bad for Hampton. Mitchell has run 19 routes this year to Hampton’s 18, so he’s probably their preferred catch-up mode RB. I’m not 100% sure about that, but it’s enough of a worry to not consider Hampton at $6,800 as a touchdown underdog.
Pass Catchers
So it sounds like DJ Moore ($5,800) will be ready to go for this one, but we won’t know for sure until at least Friday. That makes quite a bit of difference. And we have a less-clear picture of what the Bills will do now since 25% of their season has been played without Moore now. We do know that he’s third on the team in target per route run:
Kincaid 30.4%
Shakir 29.3%
Moore 24.2%
Cook 20%
Palmer 19.2%
Coleman 16.3%
Knox 10.7%
Bills pass catchers are always tough to play because of the way they play in rushing for a bunch of touchdowns and spreading the passes around.
If there’s a play, it’s certainly Dalton Kincaid ($5,500), but the price has exploded upward.
He is a reasonable stack pairing with Allen, but $5,500 for him with DJ Moore probably returning is pretty tough to get to. I’ll put him on the list because he has truly played like a $6,000 tight end and he’s not there yet, but it’s a little too risky and buy-highish for me to do.
The Chargers pass catchers haven’t gotten there yet because of this offenses bad play. Ladd McConkey ($5,900) is the key to this pass game, it seems. He was truly questionable last week but did play and ran as many routes as anybody else (Johnston ran 23, McConkey 21). If he was limited last week, it was in performance, not snaps or routes. He’s the guy. None of the other options are good enough to matter to us. McConkey’s 26.3% TPRR leads the team, and he’s at a decent 3.1 YPRR even while probably not playing at full strength last week.
Provided that McConkey is a full go, I think he’s in play. The Chargers will have to play fast and throw the ball to keep pace with the scoring of the Bills, and McConkey is how they’re going to do that. And the Bills’ defense isn’t great.
Recap
It’s a key game on the slate. You can use it for several iterations of tourney builds. But the cash focus for me is mostly coming down to Ladd McConkey ($5,900). That’s the best play in my view. Not that you can’t play Allen or Kincaid; I just don’t really like their prices.
Panthers at Browns
Who had Bryce Young ($5,300) being second in the league in passing yards and Deshaun Watson ($4,700) being an above-average QB by EPA after two weeks?
This is probably a spot to not completely rewrite our priors. We thought these QBs were trash two weeks ago; should two games change that?
The O/U being at 42.5 shows you that the markets don’t think this is going to be high-scoring affair. That 109 shootout score is high, that comes from yards per play and yards per play allowed from each team; but it’s just this year, which is a two-game sample. So I wouldn’t read much into the that 109.
Both offenses have some pieces. The Browns have a few rookie receivers that have made some big plays, and Bryce Young is still pretty early on in his career with two good receivers on his side as well.
The biggest data point for this one is that the Panthers have been very pass-happy early on, even despite having played with a lead for most of this season so far. They’re at a 64% pass rate and in the top ten in the league (top five in some models I’ve seen) in PROE. So they believe in Young and apparently want to chuck it. That could help this game environment. It would seem like a pretty solid OVER 42.5 bet to me, I’ll be interested to see if it moves up (I’m writing this on Tuesday morning).
Quarterbacks
So we have an interesting QB play with Bryce Young ($5,600). The price is coming up after his two big games, but it’s still cheap:
Can the Browns score enough to keep Young throwing late? Will the Panthers just throw it anyways? It’s not as though the Panthers are expected to win this game big, so it seems like a pretty reasonable spot to play Young to me. BUT, we wouldn’t have even thought twice about him if this were the first game of the year. I don’t want to bet on guys I thought were bad two weeks ago just because of two games. But we’ll see what the QB slate looks like and what the projections say later. I’m putting him on the list.
Deshaun Watson ($4,700) is super duper cheap, but you’d have to have some real stones to try that out. He threw for 238 yard and two touchdowns on 30 attempts against the Bucs. But we’re not really going here.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100) has 22 of the 39 RB carries this year, he has 5-49-2 through the air (on just five targets in two game), and he’s played 66% of the snaps with the only rushing touchdown. So he seems like the guy there. This isn’t a bad matchup with the Browns, but the price has come up $600 since the beginning of the season:
He’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry so far, but I doubt that’s going to stick after just a 3.8 average last year. He’s played his way into an RB2 role in fantasy leagues, but there’s not enough in a 42.5-point total for me to get to in DFS.
Quinshon Judkins ($5,500) has 24 carries in two games. The Browns just haven’t had the ball a ton and haven’t run many plays. He’s averaged 2.3 yards per carry and has a 7-44-0 line through the air. He’s a fine player, and he’ll eventually score some touchdowns, but he’s a long ways from good enough to consider in this game.
Pass Catchers
The wide receivers are the most interesting in this game. Browns duo:
Concepcion: 45 routes, 24% TPRR, 1.6 YPRR, 11 TGT, 10-71-0, 6.8 ADoT
Boston: 54 routes, 20% TPRR, 2.9 YPRR< 11 TGT, 7-152-2, 15.8 ADoT
So KC Concepcion ($4,300) has the possession role and Denzel Boston ($4,500) is the deep ball guy. Boston’s converted two of those long ball sinto touchdowns so far. But they both rely on Deshaun Watson getting the offense moving, so the floor is very low. Probably too low to consider.
Tourney thought: With the Panthers throwing a ton and Watson showing some signs of life last week, this could be a pretty sneaky game to target. I’d probably go Young to Coker/Tet and come back with Boston. You could probably play Hubbard or Judkins in there too.
The Panthers side:
McMillan: 74 routes, 23% TPRR, 2.4 YPRR, 18 TGT, 10-176-0, 13.9 ADoT
Coker: 68 routes, 27% TPRR, 3.0 YPRR, 18 TGT, 16-204-2, 9.6 AdoT
These guys have 56% of the targets together, so you know where the ball goes. They’re both good, and they could both smash at their season ADP if Young is truly good.
The prices are McMillan ($6,000) and Coker ($5,500). They both look pretty decent at those prices. Are they optimal though in this game environment? I doubt it. It’s putting too much trust in Bryce Young and the Browns to not slow this game to a total hault.
Coker is $500 cheaper, so I’ll pick him and put him on the list, but I really really doubt I play any of the guy even if I make a few lineups.
Recap
It’s a much more interesting game for fantasy than we thought it was going to be a couple of weeks ago. It would be my pick for “unowned game stack” probably, but for cash I’m pretty sure it’s hands-off.
I’ve put Bryce Young and Jalen Coker on the list.
Bengals at Steelers
The Steelers offense looks like a huge problem, and that matters even for the team playing them. We want fast-paced high-scoring games for DFS, and I don’t think the Steelers can deliver that. They’ve averaged 3.7 yards per play, a ridiculously bad number. This will probably be the worst defense they’ve faced, so they’ll likely do a lot better than 3.7 this week, but it makes it really tough to play anybody from that side or the other.
The Bengals are not going to be in a 42.5-point total very often, so it wouldn’t seem like a great spot to use their expensive offense in.
Quarterbacks
An incredibly easy fade on Aaron Rodgers ($5,000). Maybe an even easier fade on Joe Burrow ($6,600) in the game against a Steelers defense that can still get the job done.
Burrow → Chase & Higgins can come through in any matchup. Chase is usually in play, and maybe he’ll deserve a spot on the list this week, but these guys are priced up, and with so many great options this week I don’t think we want to play an expensive guy in a bad game environment.
Running Backs
40 xFP for Chase Brown ($6,600) so far. 36-136-1 on the ground, 8-24-0 on 11 targets through the air. The workload is great, but this matchup is not. It’s possible he grabs 5 passes and scores a touchdown, but like I said above, it’s just not the right spot to use the Bengals.
The Steelers run game has been as bad as it gets.
Warren: 21-89-0, 7-61-0 on 10 targets
Dowdle: 15-37-0, 4-28-0 on 7 targets
So they’re under four yards per carry as a team. It’s a better spot this week, and we have a Q tag on Rico Dowdle. If he’s out (doesn’t seem likely), Jaylen Warren ($5,700) would at least get a projection boost. Enough to play him in cash? Almost surely not, but we’ll revisit that in the less-than-likely case that Dowdle does miss this game.
Pass Catchers
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) are usually in play. Not a priority spot for them this week, but one of them is pretty likely to have a solid game.
→ Chase: 13 targets, 9-87-2, 19% TPRR, 1.2 YPRR
→ Higgins: 16 targets, 8-154-0, 29% TPRR, 2.8 YPRR
Chase has the touchdowns, but Higgins has been the better receiver so far. With Higgins being $2,000 less, we should be kinda interested in that. It’s probably not enough in this game, but it’s important to point out that the usage is always pretty tight between these guys when they’re both healthy.
I guess we shouldn’t shrug off that Ja’Marr Chase went for 161 yards against the Steelers in week seven last year. That was the big Joe Flacco game, and one of Aaron Rodgers’ best games. So we’ve seen these teams shootout recently, but that’s a one-game thing.
DK Metcalf ($5,400) has 32 xFP this season. He’s seen 19 targets in two games, turning that into a pathetic 8-67-0 line on a 42% catch rate. I know that Rodgers is bad, and the Steelers haven’t been able to run the ball, but I can’t not call it a buy-low. The role is too good, and he’s still such a physical freak of nature. The huge game is going to happen, and this is the team that Rodgers had his best game against last year. I played him in cash last week, which was freaking DUMB; I’m not going to do cash again on Metcalf (I don’t think..), but tourneys - YES.
Tourney thought: You can go Burrow → Chase & Higgins and come back with DK Metcalf. It’s low-owned with plenty of ceiling. The angle would be that the Steelers figure something out and the Bengals offense has one of their best performances.
Recap
I’ll come back to the projections on the Bengals just to see, but the only guy I can see maybe considering would be Tee Higgins ($6,100). Chase, Burrow, Brown - they could all smash, but they’re just too expensive to use in a bad game environment. There will be more weeks ahead where we can play some Bengals.
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