One game in for each team; we’re not going to be reading into much from last week. Eventually we’ll start examining team defenses and how they’re performing, but I can’t do anything at all with one game.
But this post is pretty simple. We’re just trying to find the best plays and the best way to fit them together.
And it worked out last week. We landed on a sort of “stars & scrubs” build with Gibbs and Bijan taking us to the cash line. We missed on some of the lower-priced buys, but the ownership was pretty weak in the contests I played, and we got there anyway.
This week’s going to be tougher with the prices having adjusted to the biggest injuries from the pre-season, and we didn’t have many major injuries last week.
One important note: DraftKings puts their prices out before the Monday night game, so anything that happens in that MNF game has major impacts. So if a stud RB gets hurt on Monday night, DK won’t be able to adjust the price on their backup, for example.
Implied Totals
The biggest game totals:
WSH@DAL: 50.5
CHI@MIN: 48.5
BAL@NOR: 46.5
HOU@CIN: 46.5
The stay-away games:
PHI@TEN: 39.5
TB@CLE: 41.5
SEA@ARI: 41.5
PIT@NE: 41.5
Steelers at Patriots
The Steelers played a lot more fantasy-friendly game in week one with a higher pass rate and plenty of deep shots down the field, but they scored just one offensive touchdown and were not efficient with their approach. I think we could end up in a spot with them where they aren’t an automatic scratch-off for DFS purposes, but we have a total in the low-40s for this one, and they have to go to Boston to face a good team.
The Patriots played poorly in game one against an elite defense in Seattle. This is a better spot for them at home against the Steelers, but still not a great one. The Steelers defense is solid, and Drake Maye just didn’t look good at all last week.
So it’s definitely not a priority game, but there could be some decent plays along the way.
Quarterbacks
Can’t do it here. Maybe we’ll see the Steelers be super throw-heavy this year with Mike McCarthy, and maybe we’ll end up liking Aaron Rodgers ($5,100) as a punt play against a bad defense as a substantial underdog. But that’s not this week, especially cause he kinda just sucked last week.
Drake Maye ($6,100) is priced nicely here. I expected a higher tag in his first week on the main slate. The Steelers secondary is a bit banged up, and the Patriots will want to have a good showing here at home after that rough loss in Seattle on Opening Night.
Maye should be willing to run this year, he went 5-37 in week one. I don’t hate the play, honestly. Really thought he’d be like $6,800 or so. With the Steelers possibly being more of a big-play offense while Rodgers is healthy, Maye has some potential ceiling in this one as well.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,700) had one of the best RB roles of week one, but TreVeyon Henderson ($5,400) should return for this game, and that takes a decent chunk away from Stevenson, probably. Stevenson ran 27 routes and saw six targets. He was inefficient on the ground, so he needs those catches to get there in fantasy leagues. With Henderson back, I can’t pay $5,700 for it - but I do think he’s a weekly RB2 play in fantasy leagues.
Steelers backs last week:
Warren: 36% of snaps, 10-46-0, 5-27-0 (6 targets)
Dowdle: 58% of snaps, 8-15-0, 2-6-0 (5 targets)
Pretty gross split. Warren is the better fantasy play with his 13 routes and five targets. He’s going to get a lot of emergency dump-offs from Rodgers, and maybe Dowdle will too. But it seems like a pretty even split, which can’t work for DFS, especially on a below-average offense.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf ($5,200) is one of the buy-lows of the week. His floor is low, and this is a bad matchup with the New England secondary, so I don’t think we want to use him in anything DFS-wise this week, just thought I’d mention again his great usage from week one (10 targets, 20.4 ADoT).
AJ Brown is out, so we have some potential value on the New England side. DeMario Douglas ($3,800) went 5-20-0 on 7 targets in week one. So that’s not a good result, but he saw a target on 23% of his routes, so without Brown - they’re going to throw the ball his way.
Romeo Doubs ($5,000) had an embarrassing debut with his new team. But he’ll have to be involved with Brown out.
I think it will prove right to just ignore this passing game and go for safer places. But there’s no doubt that Douglas and Doubs should be a bit more expensive with Brown being out.
Recap
I would rather not be playing anybody from this game, it could be ugly. Both offenses might just be bad, and both defenses are pretty good. But I’ll be interested in the DeMario Douglas ($3,800) news and projection as the weekend draws closer.
Panthers at Falcons
The QB situation will dictate a lot of this Falcons game. They played pretty slow in week one, did not throw the ball down the field, and were more or less a one-man show with Bijan Robinson doing all of the work for them.
The Panthers were a week one surprise. They played super fast (2nd fastest pace to NOR) and averaged an elite 7.0 yards per play. Is that a blip or a sign of improvement? Probably a bit of both.
It’s another pretty low total at 43.5 points. So not a featured game, but definitely two teams worth taking a close look at.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young ($5,400) was awesome in week one, but it will take a few games for us to believe he’s a useful QB. It could happen. But there’s a lot more working against him than for him. It’s a low total, he doesn’t run a ton, the Falcons defense is decent, and so on and so forth.
It looks like Cooper Rush will make another start for the Falcons while they wait to get their Penix back. The Falcons did everything they could to take the ball out of Rush’s hands in week one. He threw for just a 3.5-yard ADoT and got the ball to Bijan Robinson 29 times.
Running Backs
So it’s pretty clear that there’s one play on the Falcons side until further notice. Bijan Robinson ($8,200) came up $500 from last week to a much more competitive salary. His floor will be tremendous, and this is a better matchup for him against the Panthers. Obviously, he goes on the list. He’s the most expensive play on the board, but it’s only him and CMC above $8K at the running back position. I like spending the money on running backs more than other positions, so Bijan will be on the list and in consideration. But it would be a whole lot better if the team had a competent QB.
It’s hands-off on the Panthers side until something changes with an injury or a really good matchup or something. Three difference guys got carries last week. Chuba Hubbard was the clear #1 guy, but it was just ten attempts and three catches.
Wide Receivers
Jalen Coker ($5,100) came up $500 after his big week one. It looks pretty concentrated through the air for the Panthers:
A few more routes to McMillan, but a full snap share for Coker and he won the TPRR and YPRR battle with McMillan by a lot.
You’d be buying high on Coker and betting on continued good play from Bryce Young for this play to work. I’d like to “wait and see” if this maintains, but you certainly can’t complain about his week one usage. Nine targets, 8-132-8, 13.8-yard ADoT.
The price on Tet McMillan ($6,100) did not budge. Definitely not going to play that guy, even though I’m sure he’ll have some big games and he could end up with a nice season if Young is truly good now.
You can’t play anybody on the Falcons side until they get a new QB or just get super, super cheap. Last week was gross. Pitts didn’t have a catch; London went 2-29-0 on four targets. I’m sure they’ll do better this week, but this isn’t a team that was even trying to get them the ball in week one regularly.
Recap
The Panthers are an interesting team to keep an eye on. It could be a major post-hype breakout for Bryce Young, and that could facilitate some nice fantasy plays in Coker & McMillan, but I can’t bet on it yet.
On the Falcons side, it’s a one-man show, so we like Bijan Robinson and nobody else.