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DFS Review
I was right on the cash line, so this was almost exactly a push week for me. I cashed in the giant $2 double up, but not in the $3. That was kind of weird. I should have played head-to-heads instead, I guess. Here’s the lineup I went with:
The locks were Gibbs, Walker, Garrett Wilson, and Parker Washington.
The QB decision was made tougher by Jameis Winston coming off the board due to the weather and the lack of confidence the Giants showed in him during the week. There was talk about them seeking a trade for a QB, which speaks to the fact that they don’t think Winston can hack it. The two options I finished on were Tyler Shough and Kyler Murray. I ended up making the right choice, as Shough threw four touchdowns. He did turn the ball over three times in the fourth quarter as they were playing catch-up, so that ended up being a game-changing difference-maker. But that’s a very good score from the cash QB.
The other question I had was concerning three RBs or two TEs. This is how most of these lineups are going to play out. There were plenty of tight ends projecting well at the price, but I made the decision to not go into the Andrews/Kelce/Schultz plays, and certainly not two of them. Their floors you could argue were fine, but with their current physical abilities, the floor wasn’t there. You do have to build for ceiling in cash. Using two spots to hopefully get 20-25 points isn’t the right way to do that.
That put me on the gross Isaiah Williams play. He was the WR2 for the Jets with Adonai Mitchell out. We figured he wouldn’t do much, and he didn’t, but the price made it work and the route-running was going to be there. It was the only way to get to three RBs. Gibbs smashed, and anybody who didn’t play him is just doing the cash games wrong. Walker was highly owned and scored two touchdowns but didn’t hit the ceiling.
I almost went with Jaylen Warren over Hubbard, but decided to bet on the Panthers offense as a whole over the Steelers. That was wrong, but it’s a good general point if you’re trying to learn how to win money in cash games. The ideal is to jam in three running backs you think will play 75+ of the snaps and get pass-game work.
I do think I played it well, just didn’t get the slight break you need with the secondary plays to double it up again.
So I doubled my money in weeks one and two and pushed in week three. That’s a good start.
Injuries
De’Von Achane has a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. The Dolphins had one good player, and now they have whatever one less than one is. That leaves Ollie Gordon as the starter. He is a much different back than Achane; he’s a bruiser. He took 17 carries for 41 yards yesterday (5.4 yards per carry). For the season, he has 20 carries for 48 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with just three targets.
Any running back that is thrust into the starting role is a viable option for fantasy leagues. But this is about as bad as that situation can be. The Dolphins have averaged 4.6 yards per play, the 10th-last in the league, and that’s probably going to get worse with Achane out of there.
Jaylen Wright will be a part of the game as well, but he’s another guy that doesn’t have Achane’s pass game chops. I think it’s just going to completely nuke the Dolphins offense. I wouldn’t want to start Gordon in a 12-team league next week at all, but maybe he’ll prove to be very good and find a way to average 4+ yards per carry on 15+ carries per week and add a handful of touchdowns in the mix.
Or maybe the Dolphins sign another RB to take some of the pass-down work. Either way, it’s not a situation to go dump all your FAAB on.
Breece Hall looks like he’ll miss some time after going out with a quad injury. That happened late in the game so we didn’t get an immediate look at the backup plan. But it’s clearly Braelon Allen, who is probably already stashed in most leagues. Allen has gone 19-61-1 on the ground this year and 4-11-0 on five targets through the air. A couple of years ago there were questions about which of these two is better; I think those debates have been settled. But Allen seems to be a competent backup on an offense that isn’t quite as bad as the Dolphins.
We’ll have to see how long they think Hall will miss, but Allen is the better add if available compared to the Dolphins situation.
Those were the only two that look like they’re definitely costing a starter significant time. Justin Jefferson left the game early but it seems like he’s fine for next week. Travis Etienne left with a hamstring, Bucky Irving left with an unspecified injury. There’s no reason right now to think any of those injuries are significant, but we’ll adjust to that during the week four NFL DFS write-up this week.
xFP - Running Backs
Week three xFP leaders:
Gibbs 29
Bijan 23
Love 23
Henry 21
Taylor 21
Kyren 21
Jeanty 19
Aaron Jones 19
Skattebo 18
Javonte 18
Hubbard 17
Warren 17
Cook 17
The Cardinals have been impressive. Jacoby Brissett is good enough to get the ball to his weapons. And that’s great news for Jeremiyah Love, who established himself as the RB1 this week. He took 21 carries for 90 yards on the ground and added 5-19-1 through the air. Tyler Allgeier had previously out-carried him, but he took a backseat yesterday with just two carries. There was no reported injury to Allgeier, so maybe they were just easing Love into things and feel good enough about his health here in week three to let him go. Love has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and has 12 targets and ten catches in three games. This was easily the #1 running back in last year’s draft, and they the #3 overall pick to get him, so it might be breakout time there.
Aaron Jones has taken 40 of the 46 RB carries since the Jordan Mason injury. He’s averaged 4.1 yards per carry and has six targets in two games. Two pretty ugly games, too. Week two was in a storm in Chicago, and yesterday was against a decent Bucs defense. Jones has just one rush TD, a lot of his scoring will depend on how good Kyler Murray proves to be, but he has a super valuable role for fantasy leagues while Mason is hurt.
Jaylen Warren gave the Steelers offense a charge yesterday with Rico Dowdle out. Warren went 17-127-0 on the ground and 3-49-0 through the air. He had an 80-yard run called back due to holding, and he tripped on his way to an easy touchdown run as well. This could have easily been a 200+ yard game for Warren with a touchdown. But he averaged 7.5 yards per rush and saw four targets, so he’s a must-start dude if Dowdle is out.
It was generally just good news for the Steelers. Rodgers went for a +0.24 EPA with 292 yards and three touchdowns to get the offense going. They beat the Bengals at home in an exciting game. DK Metcalf went 3-31-1 on five targets. It might have been a change in approach back to Rodgers getting the ball out quickly. But his ADoT was still high at 12 yards. The targets were spread out (Wilson 6, Pittman 5, Metcalf 5, Freiermuth 4, Warren 4, Washington 4).
Cam Skattebo saw 20 carries as the Giants went massively to the run (-22% PROE%). Just three yards per carry and 60 yards with 3-40-0 through the air. He’s a smaller dude who doesn’t seem like a guy who can average a big YPC in the NFL, but it was important to see him get more work in the pass game. They’ll need to do that with a pocket passer there in for Dart, whoever that might end up being.
Winston played bad by the numbers. Nobody wants to see it, he’s as entertaining as they come, but he went -0.24 EPA and 5.4 yards per attempt against the Titans.