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DFS Lineup Review
It didn’t go well at all. It was a week with a ton of value driven by injuries. The DeVonta Smith injury put me on Dontayvion Wicks. The Jordan Jefferson injury put me on Jordan Addison, and also created great spots for Aaron Jones (who did fine) and TJ Hockenson (who smashed and was the key to the cash slate). The Mason Taylor injury has elevated Kenyon Sadiq.
So I ended up playing three pretty unproven fantasy assets in Wicks, Addison, and Sadiq. And they all sucked. I almost did this switch:
Sadiq → Hockenson
Addison → Jones
That would have been a nice one. I was betting on that Vikings game being a dud, and it was - but Hockenson and Jones were the whole offense and both had nice games.
The Parker Washington bust was pretty wild to see. Teams have been hitting the Bengals with tight ends, and the Jaguars did that themselves sending eight targets to Brenton Strange. Washington saw three targets and caught one of them for seven yards. In hindsight, that looks like a “buy high” on Parker Washington, but I think I’d do it again. That was the game of the week, and Washington had been one of the best wide receivers in the league so far.
Randomness reigns, and wrong choices were made. The update on the year now:
Week 1: Doubled Up
Week 2: Doubled Up
Week 3: Push
Week 4: Lost
So that’s +1 overall, and we’ll roll into week five with even more information to make decisions with.
Injuries
Bad week for injuries. Here’s the rundown:
Lamar Jackson
Sounds like you’re probably going to lose a game or two from Lamar. That means it’s Tyler Huntley again. It’s good news for Derrick Henry’s carry total; they’ll have to go to him, but bad news for his touchdown chances, as this offense just won’t move the same. It’s bad news for Zay Flowers.
Huntley started in weeks eight and 17 last year.
Week 8
Henry: 21 carries, 71 yards, 2 TD
Flowers: 9 targets, 7 catches, 63 yardsWeek 17
Henry: 36 carries, 216 yards, 4 TD
Flowers: 5 targets, 4 catches, 30 yards, TD
That Week 17 game is consoling to your Henry/Flowers owners out there. They smashed the Packers in that game. It’s pretty easy to play QB when your running back runs for 216 yards and four scores, but Huntley held his own. He knows how to run the offense. We’ll see them go very run-heavy. No question about that. But the defense can lock in on Henry more. He’s averaged only 4.2 yards per rush this year, so he’s showing some signs of age and lowering that elite career yards per carry.
This isn’t a situation where the offense becomes unusable in fantasy. It’s a great scheme and a QB who can handle things. But the overall point scoring is very likely to come down, so this is a negative for these guys.
Bengals Wide Receivers
It’s one game max for Ja’Marr Chase with a concussion. We’ll see what they say this week. It’s possible Chase can get out of the concussion protocol and not miss any time.
The Tee Higgins injury is worse. It was an adductor. That’s a new word for mem.
Hashtag wellness Wednesdays! Higgins did come back and shortly after that injury, but sat out their final desperation drive and looks pretty likely to miss some time. We’ll hear more today.
This is rough for Chase/Higgins/Burrow owners. The Bengals play the Dolphins next week. That was a potential 40+ point spot for them, but it’ll be significantly tougher without their two best skill players.
We will get some massive values, though. Mitchell Tinsley went 3-49-0 on seven targets. Dohnte Meyers went 7-82-0 on nine targets. Mike Gesicki caught a touchdown on a 3-40-1 line on five targets. And Chase Brown saw 11 (!) targets. Tinsley and Meyers are hardly NFL players, but they both made some plays yesterday and will have an ideal spot to play in next week.
It will be a situation just like this Vikings one we just saw as they went and played the Dolphins without Justin Jefferson. They did not score many points, but they were able to get the ball to Hockenson, and Aaron Jones had a big volume game with some success. It will not be comfortable to play these fill-in WRs next week; you still have to be really good to have success in the NFL, and we don’t know if these guys are good at all. Way more to come on that as I analyze that game during the week five breakdown.
Saquon Barkley
It’s a hamstring for Barkley. As always on X, there are mixed reports. The Eagles have downplayed the severity, while some social media doctors say that Barkley is destined for IR. I’d trust the word of the Eagles over the social media bros, but it does seem pretty likely that Barkley misses at least one game.
That opens the door for Tank Bigsby (14-55-0 yesterday) to be the rusher and Will Shipley to get pass-down work. Bigsby also left the game early with an undisclosed injury. So there’s a lot of news to wait for early this week in this situation. If Barkley is out and Bigsby is in, Bigsby becomes a decent season-long play, but probably not very appealing for DFS purposes since he’s nowhere near as good as Barkley and Shipley will be taking most of the RB catches.
The Eagles offense might also just be one of the worst in the league without Goedert, Smith, and Barkley. So it could be a dud-city and a full-avoid offense for DFS purposes.
Ladd McConkey
He re-aggravated a foot injury. Things have been brutal for the Chargers this year, who find themselves at 0-4 and set to face the Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, and Texans the next four weeks. Brutal schedule, and they’re basically already drawing dead with four losses.
Targets yesterday: Gadsden 8, Mitchell 6, Tre Harris 5, Vidal 3, Johnston 2, Hampton 2
It’s an ugly RB rotation there, but Keaton Mitchell is becoming more and more appealing for fantasy purposes. They’re scripting plays for him in the passing game, and he took 10 carries yesterday as well. Oronde Gadsen is probably their most talented pass catcher if McConkey misses time, but he’s done very little with his opportunity the last two weeks. Everything will be pretty thin in that offense. Similar situation to the Eagles, but made worse by a tough schedule coming up.
Volume Outliers
Highest play counts: CHI 90, LAR 83, LVR 80, DAL 78, CIN 76, MIN 75
Lowest play counts: NYJ 32, MIA 39, HOU 53, GB 57, BUF 58, JAX 58, SEA 58
Pretty easy to have some big fantasy days when you’re running 90 plays, and pretty tough to do it when you’re under 60. We saw the Bears dominate the time of possession like you’ll rarely see against the Jets. Suffocated them. The Dolphins got off just 39 plays.
Elevated Players Due to Injury
Ollie Gordon: 9 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD
Pretty ENCOURAGING start to his tenure as the Dolphins’ primary ball carrier. They listed Jaylen Wright as the starter yesterday, but Gordon took four more carries than him and averaged 11.1 yards per rush. He’s not going to average more than six yards per carry; don’t be ridiculous- this was an outlier game. But it was also an outlier game in that the Dolphins had just 18 rush attempts and 17 pass attempts.
Their volume is driven down by them just being a horrible team. The floors and ceilings are so low on everybody on this pitiful team, but Gordon showed what he can do and smashed on just 11 opportunities (2 targets, 2 catches, 0 yards through the air).
Braelon Allen: 14 carries, 59 yards, 0 TD
Very similar to the Dolphins situation. The Jets threw it 15 times and ran it 14 times. Allen averaged 4.2 yards per carry, which is decent, but they just didn’t have the ball enough to pile up any yardage. But it’s better news for the Jets than for the Dolphins. Geno Smith has played fine this year, so they shouldn’t have too many more of these games with so little volume. But also, Breece Hall will return before long, and Allen will go back to the backseat.
Dontavyion Wicks: 5 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards
Massive L for me, as I thought Wicks would have a big game in this one. The Eagles completed just 12 passes in this one, so the volume wasn’t there, but that’s probably because their team is just talentless right now. The winner was Darius Cooper, who saw seven targets and went 3-33-2 through the air.
It’s hard to feel great about anybody in this offense, as we already discussed. I certainly don’t want to buy into Cooper/Wicks/Lemon. Tank Bigsby is fine if Barkley misses time, but it seems like we’ll just have to wait until they get Barkley + Smith back for this offense to be able to do anything. It’s even tough to start Jalen Hurts in this situation.
Week 4 xFP
Top ten:
CeeDee Lamb 33.9
Kyren Williams 31.5
Tee Higgins 26.3
Tetairoa McMillan 26
Kyle Monangai 24
Aaron Jones 23.7
Javonte Williams 23.3
Sam LaPorta 22.2
Jahmyr Gibbs 21.9
Michael Wilson 21.9
Chase Brown 21.4
Quinshon Judkins 21.1
Puka Nacua 21.1
Ashton Jeanty 21.1
TJ Hockenson 21.0
Jonathan Taylor 20.2
Carnell Tate 20.0
Isaiah Likely 19.6
Trey McBride 19.0
Tony Pollard 18.9
I’ll break down a lot of these names and write a lot more; subscribe to get the rest of that, my weekly slate previews, the tools, and the MLB offseason content that has already started. Team previews season is upon us!