DFS Lineup Recap
Came up short again. It was a messy Sunday morning with unknown injury statuses for Ashton Jeanty and the Bengals receivers. Sunday mornings are busy for me, going to church and lunch with the family, so I’m not sitting there reacting to every piece of news and stuff like the pro players.
Some weeks when I’m confused and things are changing fast on a Sunday morning, I’ll lean heavily on the ETR projections. That was the case this week. I’m a subscriber to their product, which is fantastic. So check that out here if you’re serious about this stuff.
There was obvious chalk this week with the DET/ARI game being so far above the rest of the slate. It was pretty easy to jam in as many pieces of that game as possible. I ended up with FIVE guys from the same game, including three different pass catchers on the Arizona side. The thinking there was just embracing the chalk game, hoping it smashes as it should, and taking advantage of other people trying to get a little too cute.
Four different players from one pass attack limits your ceiling and puts you in major risk if they don’t smash. And that cost me this week, but I still think it was fine. I thought I was getting 95% of the points from Arizona, but then Brissett threw two touchdowns to someone named Teagan Quitoriano. He had two catches in the game, both for touchdowns. Jalen Brooks even saw seven targets, so it did not all go through McBride + Wilson + Bourne like I thought.
Brissett wasn’t even doing well until fourth quarter garbage time, but he got there.
The lineup was so, so chalky. I was between Emanuel Wilson and Braelon Allen for RB2, and went with Wilson for the better game environment. But that was wrong and cost me more than a handful of points. That was the main decision that cost me. So I’m now at two wins, two losses, and one push. Which means all of this research has gone for no profit! Better than a loss at least, and we’re having fun.
Week 5 xFP
I retrained the model this morning from 2023-2025 data and re-applied it to 2026. So the xFP values have changed a little bit. But it should be a little better now.
Here are the leaders from Thursday-Sunday in week five:
This stuff’s available on the web app. I upgraded it late last week.
GIANTS
The Giants ran 88 plays to lead the league. Fantasy football is as simple as just figuring out which offense is going to run 80+ plays and then jamming in that QB and the main dudes. But you can’t actually do that.
Jameis Winston threw it 54 times. That sent 20 targets to Malik Nabers (11-121-1) and 13 to Isaiah Likely (11-94-2).
Those two are the playmakers. They’re both very good at their jobs, so they’ll come through when the volume is up to that level. Nabers proved to be healthy enough to crush defenses. The sell high window is open even more! But that gets less comfortable now after he played 91% of the snaps and ran 57 routes for a 37% target share. He looks pretty healthy to me! So is it still a sell? I’d still be interested. You can probably get someone to value him as a second-round pick, and the QB play and his shoulder are still reasons to worry.
Isaiah Likely has been pretty studly, man. 31% target per route, 1.88 yards per route, 70% of the snaps, 29% of the total targets, and four touchdowns in five games.
Winston still hasn’t been great, but they’re willing to give him volume, and he’s been able to get the ball to these guys.
LIONS
The Lions ran 66 plays in a relatively easy win. They averaged 6.2 yards per play and won the game 45-21. So yeah, the markets were right on that game. 66 points.
31 opportunities for Gibbs. He’s on a historic pace. Only an injury can slow the dude down. It could have even been better, there could have easily been a third touchdown.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was sort of disappointing with just 6-69-0 on his 11 targets. Jameson Williams scored two touchdowns, Sam LaPorta got his hands on one, and Jared Goff sneaked for one as well. So it was just what we’ve come to love about the Lions. Lots of yards, lots of points, and it’s all concentrated to Gibbs + St Brown + LaPorta + Williams. A must-watch offense every week.
Jared Goff is playing elite football. Not super hard to do with all of these weapons and this scheme, but a 12:0 TD:INT with 7.73 yards per attempt is terrific.
He’s fantasy’s #1 quarterback today. He won’t be tomorrow after Josh Allen plays tonight, but a perfect runout for him thus far.