DFS Lineup
I went with a lineup that was duplicated a ton of times. It seems like a lot of the projection systems took people onto the same exact build. And the lineup ended up right around the cash line number. That returned me $1.24 in the $2 Double Up I played the lineup in a bunch of times. So that’s weird. A losing week, but it could have been worse.
QB Jordan Love (74% owned)
RB Bijan Robinson (55%)
RB CMC (83%)
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (47%)
WR Matthew Golden (78%)
WR Ted Hurst (72%)
TE George Kittle (64%)
FLEX Cade Otton (53%)
DST Dolphins (32%)
Ted Hurst and Cade Otton both air balled. It’s wild that happened. They had Mayfield back and were without Egbuka, so you thought there would be plenty of targets for Hurst and Otton.
But they ran for like 250 yards, and Mayfield threw 11 passes. 11!
That’s some wild, wild stuff. They ran the ball 79% of the time and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Nobody else was above a 57% pass rate. So just a crazy weird game.
There were only nine total targets in the game.
So I don’t know, the plays look awful in retrospect, but we couldn’t really have seen this kind of game coming.
St. Brown was the only guy who actually came through. I wasn’t going to play Bijan Robinson in that game until Brian Robinson was ruled out. Bijan saw 25 opportunities but didn’t break the long run and the 49ers kept him mostly bottled up (3.2 yards per carry), and he didn’t score a touchdown. The super stud RBs still tend to need touchdowns to get there once the prices are this high up.
One thing I could have done to change everything is play the Bucs DST instead of the Dolphins. The Bucs D scored a touchdown and had a massive score, and that was largely the reason their passing game didn’t have to do anything. I don’t really analyze defenses, I just take the projections and play whatever cheap one at the price I need looks best there. And the projections were stupid and wrong this week. So that’s too bad.
Week 7 xFP
You can check the tools to see the full list, I just want to look at a few interesting spots.
Ollie Gordon - 26 xFP
25 carries, 103 rushing yards, and a touchdown for Gordon. The xFP came from him receiving five carries inside the five yard line. But he sucked on those carries, going for -4 yards and just the single TD. It could have been a huge game for Gordon. The Dolphins had a really nice game, beating the Jets 28-25 in a surprising shootout game. Willis threw for 208 yards on just 21 attempts and ran for 37 yards to get the offense going. Gordon has proven himself with a 4.7 yards-per-carry mark this year. He is legit.
Tony Pollard - 24 xFP
Pollard was the key to taking down DFS yesterday. Tyjae Spears was out, which should have been a signal that we might want to play him. He went 25-129-3, adding 3-26-0 in the pass game.
He has 205 rushing yards in the last two weeks with those three touchdowns yesterday. Touchdown stuff is pretty random, but it all went Pollard’s way yesterday. The Titans scored 24 points, but lost on the final drive.
Tony P can still play. 4.3 yards per carry this year. I wouldn’t get overly excited about his future if you have him in fantasy leagues, we have seen the floor that comes with playing on this team. But with Spears out, he becomes a very strong play, and maybe we’re seeing Cam Ward improve. We would expect some year two growth there, right?
I’d try to sell high on Pollard after this for sure, but that’s easier said than done!