Pitchers Improvers
Checking some surging pitchers
Looking for some hot pitchers to pick up for the stretch run. Let’s hit you with some data tables.
Major League K% Improvers
Full data here, but I’m going to zoom in on some guys I’m most interested in.
We’re keeping this real simple, I just have a little bit of time for this, and often times, the simple answer is the right answer.
We like strikeouts. We like strikeouts a lot. And these six dudes are getting strikeouts.
The 10-12 team options here:
Andrew Painter - Phillies
As if you don’t know that Andrew Painter is on the Phillies, I put the team name there. But it brings the post a note of professionalism.
Painter was buns all year, and then the Phillies sent him down. And then he comes back up with a new pitch mix. That’s always a signal to start re-evaluating. He’s been a top prospect in the past, he throws hard, and he’s still very young. So you’d be foolish to give up on him at this point. And maybe we can buy into him now for the big future ahead of him. This might apply more to dynasty leagues, but I’m growing more interested in Painter for this season too.
Here’s the pitch mix trend:
It’s an ugly plot, but I’ll try to narrow it down. That changeup is NEW
That splitter is GONE:
The sweeper has been used more. Last three starts:
Fastball - STILL SUCKS. Why do I say that?
→ 42% Strike% (bench mark is like 47%, and you really want 50%+)
→ .381 xwOBA (bench mark is like .320, you want at least below .340 for a four-seamer
So that’s a problem and he’s going to give up some dingers when these Major League big boys can sit on that heater in a 3-1 count and go deep into the night with it.
The sweeper has a nic 51% Strike%, but a mediocre SwStr% and a high .358 xwOBA on a low pitch count (59).
The changeup though, the changeup. Many a pitcher has made a decent living with a nasty changeup. And maybe that’s what we’re seeing develop here. Having high-90s on the four-seamer is a help, too. So it could happen with Painter, it could happen.
NEXT STARTS: at TWINS, vs. CARDINALS
Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
He’s owned by now. Above 70% on CBS. But this is another seal of approval from me. It’s at least my second seal of approval, and I retracted the first one.
Fastball velo has been cranking:
He got over 98 on June 1st and he’s kept it there. And since then:
16% K-BB%, 42% GB%, .224 xBA, .295 xwOBA, and even some bad luck with a brutally high 26% HR/FB. The ERA since June 1st is 4.50, no great, but most of that is because of the 1.8 HR/9 which makes no sense from him and his ground ball rate and that 26% HR/FB. It’s coming down.
We’ve already seen it coming to fruition in this second half. His last four:
Fantastic stuff. It could go south again, and he’s all of these Dodgers are pitching once per week with the six or seven man rotation or whatever they’re going to do with Snell back. But I’m starting Sasaki every time… at least until I stop.
The deeper league options:
Tyler Mahle, Braves
Can’t really argue with what he’s done in a Braves uniform. But it’s only in two starts. The splitter has been fantastic in these two outings, and the fastball and cutter combo has been good enough.
I think most likely this is just a good two-start stretch with positive variance in the dude having the splitter both times. It’s not a pitch mix you can count on start-to-start, but it’s possible the Braves just saw something in him and have put some tweaks into play and are seeing the fruits of that come out.
The Braves are one of those squads that seem to get the best of their arms. This is the team that has a sub-three ERA from Martin Perez this year, after all.
Joey Cantillo, Guardians
It’s another pitch mix change. This particular mix change happened back on June 20th when he started throwing more curveballs. It’s been ten starts since then, and the dude has a 31% K%.
That’s a 21.4% K-BB% and a 2.71 JA SIERA. Very, very good.
Length has been a big issue.
That one inning was just a long rain delay in a poorly executed weather situation in Chicago last week. But he hasn’t gone six innings since June 26th. So you aren’t getting qual-bangers. He walks dudes, he labors, but the strikeouts are there and have been for some time.
Jacob Lopez, Athletics
Okay I’ve given you a few guys at high ownership. I can’t believe Cantillo is like 75% owned, that’s nonsense. But Lopez is not owned.
And yet again, a pitch mix change! Same story with Painter here. He went to the minors and came up as a changed man. He returned in early July. So we have a pretty big sample of him back on the bump:
22% K-BB% kiddos!
BUT WAIT, he pitches in Sacramento, where 12 runs per game are scored (it’s legit at 12.25, but that includes the Vegas series, I think).
Lopez hasn’t cared.
TWO STARTS BIG WHOOP - but a 23.3% K-BB% and 2.80 ERA there. He’s pitching well!
I’d use him on the road and feel pretty good about it right now. Pitch mix since returning:
Fastball has been great, slider has been extremely great. Maybe he’s just been super lucky to get an 11% HR/FB, but he’s throwing his best pitches a lot and it’s been working.
Next starts: vs. TEX, at HOU
Gage Jump, Athletics
Two Athletics recommendations… that’s where we’re at late in the season when pitching staffs are breaking down. But since the break, he has struck out a ton of batters at 32%. I suppose that’s the end of the good news with his 16% BB% and 1.1 HR/9:
But he has two good ones in his last three:
This is probably who the guy is. Sometimes very good, sometimes very bad. But maybe you can pick your spots and get the very good.
Pitch mix data for the season:
27% Ball% on the four-seamer and a decent .333 xwOBA. It’s a 96mph fastball from a wicked release point (he’s a lefty), so it can fool guys if it’s on. And the slider has come into form.
There’s a lot to like. Maybe it’s more of a long-term investment. He and the rest of the staff should be helped when they can finally escape the minor league park in a couple of seasons, but we have some high upside for Jump any time he takes the mound.
Next start: vs. TEX, at KC
I’d be grabbing him for that second start.
MINOR LEAGUERS
Some minor league guys absolutely cooking lately:
Anthony Eyanson, Orioles
He’s one of the big prospect pitchers to know about. It’s probably a little too late to acquire him at discount now with his huge numbers for the season and the headlines he made as the main return for Adley Rutschman at the deadline.
But Eyanson is the man:
Incredible numbers this year. He’s in AA, but we’re probably looking at a 2027 arrival if the season goes off as normal and he stays healthy.
Miguel Sime Jr., Nationals
The Nats will need to come through on these prospect pitchers if they want to turn Abrams/Wood into a contender. Sime Jr. could be a big part of that. He’s not even in AA yet, but the 41.3% K% ont he year is astounding.
Really needs to learn to throw some strikes. Tim’s talked about him a few times in Prospects of the Week, so there’s a lot of content here about him.
The stuff seems nasty, and if he can rein it in, the Nats will have something.
His last two starts: 17 strikeouts, 3 walks. So that’s a positive sign already!
Caden Hunter, Orioles
Lots of young pitching in the DC area now! Hunter recently got to AA and has struck out 26 hitters in three starts. Plus elite home run suppression and a non-terrifying walk rate:
Round up and you’ve got a 40% K%. Not often do you see that going on.
Aidean Deakins, Rangers
I’m not sure what the point of this post is now, going deep into the minors when I started talking about redraft guys to add right now. But let’s finish with Deakins.
22 year old, 25.5% K%, 9.5% BB% in the minors this year. 22 strikeouts in his last three outings. The Rangers have some young pitching prospects, and he’s pitching his way into consideration for your dynasty leagues. He’s an unknown, not even ranked in the Rangers MLB prospects list. So maybe I’m just stupid. But there you go, someone to look into more for you savvy Dynasty bro’s.
BACK TO THE MAJORS
A few more names, these are pretty much deep league kinda gross options for you:
Sean Manaea
3.35 JA SIERA last seven starts, three straight quality starts, 18 strikeouts in his last two. Maybe a hot stretch to finish the year for Manaea is coming.
Luis Castillo
Did some nasty work against the Reds yesterday. Maybe the White Sox will be able to get some decent work from him as they push for the playoffs. If nothing else, the limitations of the Mariners loaded up pitching staff is a thing of the past.
Grayson Rodriguez
20 strikeouts in his last three, at least 14 fantasy points in each of those. Averaged almost 97 on the heater in two recent starts. Seems like he’s healthy and throwing it about as good as he has in the recent years.
Some very soft upcoming schedules for kinda bad pitchers:
Patrick Sandoval: at PIT, vs. SF
Landen Roupp: vs. COL, at CLE
Brady Singer: vs MIA, vs STL, at SF
Cody Bradford: at ATH, vs LAA
Jackson Kent: at TEX, at MIA
I like Cody Bradford for WHIP help. I’d start him in both of those spots, but don’t expect any strikeout help.
Jackson Kent kinda came out of nowhere. He threw four innings yesterday and struck out six Cubs in his big league debut. But he walked five. In the minors this year:
Pretty good 19.4% K-BB% and 1.05 HR/9. The pitch mix from that Cubs start:
Probably nothing here. Low-velo fastball, slider/changeup. Not a highly touted prospect, but maybe in a crazy deep league where you just need some volume. They’ll need him with the recent release of Littell and Mikolas.
I don’t know; hope this helps somebody out there. At least it killed some time on a boring Thursday in baseball.