Player Analysis: Munetaka Murakami
We take a quick look at the Japanese slugger who will join an MLB team this winter
Munetaka Murakami has been POSTED. It’s a trend! We’ve seen impact players coming over from Japan and Korea for several years in a row now. Seiya Suzuki, Ha-Seong Kim, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki are the big ones. But there’s a slew of other role players who have made a difference to their newfound MLB organizations (Hyeseong Kim, Masataka Yoshida, and I’m sure I’m missing a bunch!).
This year’s big name appears to be Murakami! He’s a power-hitting third baseman. And look, I’m not going to do the best analysis on the guy. I’d point you to this video from Lance Brozdowski:
He has great video analysis on Murakami and others. And he shouts out my Python course in that video. So I enjoyed that part of it.
The purpose of this post is just to tell the quick story on the guy to those of you who aren’t super active on X and other sites. There’s a contingent of you who get most of your winter fantasy baseball updates from me, so this one’s for you.
Murakami last season in Japan:
→ 610 PA, .244/.379/.472, 33 HR, 10 SB, 180 SO (29.5% K%)
We have to adjust the numbers when someone is coming from another league. Not all baseball leagues are created equal. It’s largely a different game in Japan. Here’s the comparison:
We have two key points.
Murakami’s home run rate was 3.6 times higher than the league average.
Murakami’s strikeout rate was 1.57 times higher than the league average.
You see a 33-homer season and you don’t exactly fall out of your chair. We have big boys hitting 50+ yearly now. But Murakami’s 33 is a massive number in that league context. The Major League home run rate was 3.1% last year. That’s double Japan. Take Murakami’s rate and translate it to the Majors and you have a home run pace well over 60. Basically just double his 33, right? 66 bombs!
But the strikeout rate is very likely to come up as a raw number as well. The Major League strikeout rate was 22% last year, more than three points above Japan. Murakami’s 29.5% K% would translate to 34.5%.
That might be conservative, because Major League pitching is nothing like Japanese pitching. It’s a different world velo-wise. It’s easier to hit homers, yes, but it’s a lot easier to strike out.
Again, we’re doing very simplistic analysis here. The guy has huge pop, but there’s a real chance we’re looking at a 35%+ K% here. And it’s tough to do much with that high of a strikeout rate. Here’s the best we got last year among MLB hitters above a 33% K%:
Only two hitters over a .700 OPS, and they were both in limited samples. The aggregate slash line of that group is .213/.281/.385. It’s tough to give that many PAs away and still do positive things with the bat.
Murakami can and will adjust. That’s the one thing the numbers don’t account for. It’s no secret that he’ll be facing more velo, higher fastballs, fewer splitters, and so on and so forth. He is just 25, and he has plenty of time to practice, adjust, and do all the things to give him the best chance of a smooth transition. That stuff needs to be taken into account.
But my money would be against the guy for 2026. But my opinion isn’t that important. We live in a world where people are doing $150 fantasy baseball drafts in October. So they’re hip to Murakami:
Someone went a little crazy there with the pick at #158. To me that’s a pick that is like “ha ha look at me I know this guy is coming from Japan and I’m going to get him haha!”. But maybe not. That guy essentially set the market. The first guy to draft him! Maybe ever! Since then, we’re around pick 200 on average for the guy.
That will probably shoot UP (meaning down… meaning he’ll go earlier in drafts) after he lands on a team. That seems to be how it works. Even at ADP 200, I don’t think that’s right. Some of the other 3B around that range:
Royce Lewis, Matt Shaw, Addison Barger! Yeah, I’d take all three of those over the newcomer. Barger is a decent comp. Power lefty with sample size and strikeout questions. The tiebreaker goes for Barger without a doubt. It’s a big deal to see someone have success against Major League pitching.
That’s a wrap!