Player Breakdown: Chandler Simpson

A look at one of fantasy baseball's most interesting players: Chandler Simpson

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This analysis will be in the upcoming Rays team preview. But I wanted to pull out some of the more interesting fantasy baseball names for standalone posts. Simpson is certainly interesting. Here’s my take.

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Let’s start with the numbers on Simpson from all levels each year:

261 steals and one home run. And that home run was an inside-the-park homer.

There are two questions with Simpson for 2026. One has to do with him, one has to do with the actual math of the fantasy game.

1. Will he play every day?

Simpson’s final call-up was on June 24th. After that date, he started 71 of 81 games. He led off in 52 of them. After the trade deadline, he played even more, and was almost exclusively the lead-off hitter against right-handed pitching.

So it’s a good bet that he plays more than 80% of the time next year and leads off a ton. But I don’t think it’s a lock that he plays 150 games even if healthy. He is somehow not a good outfielder. It’s wild to see 97th-percentile speed with 11th-percentile range in the outfield.

Range is measured when you’re making outs, not just how far you’re running. So the guy has some problems. He doesn’t read the ball off the bat well, and that’s a lot more important than your speed.

All of that just to say that we can’t lock him in to be a starter all year, which means we can’t bank those 60+ steals. If he does play even 120 games, he’s a must-own fantasy player because of the rate at which he piles up steals.

Simpson piled up a good roto fantasy season last year with a +6.6 SRV. The .300 batting average massively helped him, so we should talk about that, too.

The guy makes a ton of contact. The main reason he’s not hitting homers is the approach. He knows who he is and how he’s going to make his money. Short, slow swings that generate high contact rates.

He had a 92.5% Zone Contact% with a 60% GB% and a 9% FB%.

We would benefit from some more line drives, for sure, but a 60% GB% is not a problem at all for an Olympic sprinter. He gives himself a chance for infield hits that way. The last thing you’d want to see from him would be a high fly ball rate.

Chandler Simpson Batting Average by BB Type

Ground Balls: .228 (league = .275)
Line Drives: .621 (league = .614)
Fly Balls: .182 (league = .279)

With league-low swing speed, his fly balls will be caught at a very, very high rate. And with league-high sprint speed, his ground balls should turn into hits at a higher-than-average rate. Interestingly enough, that’s not what we saw last year. I wouldn’t expect another .230 batting average on ground balls from the kid. It’s true that EV matters in that regard too, he’s getting fewer grounders through the infield, but I think that number will come up significantly next year. His xBA was at .280. I think the batting average is safe with him. He probably can’t hit .320 or anything like that with the lack of any sort of exit velo, but I have little doubt that he’ll be a positive in the fantasy game in the category.

The question is simply about whether you want to use one of your top 12 or so picks on a guy who will not hit you a single home run (unless he lucks into an inside-the-parker again).

I think it would be a fine thing to do if I were sure he was their everyday centerfielder. But I’m not sure about that at all. I think there’s a chance he ends up back in the minors if he’s playing bad defense and not racking up a ton of base hits to make up for it.

My general approach in drafts is to have every single pick be a guy I think can hit 15 homers and steal ten bags. That’s not always possible, of course, but that’s the general approach. Simpson clearly doesn’t fit that. But there is the case where you end up with an extra slugger or two early in the draft because they fall too far and you can’t pass up the value. That puts you behind in steals, and Simpson immediately catches you up.

What makes fantasy baseball different than other sports is that there are so many different ways to build a winning roster. The diversity of scoring systems and league settings works to make certain players very valuable in one place, and not so valuable in other places. That’s the case with Simpson. It’s all about what kind of league you’re in and what kind of fantasy team build you’re adding him to.