It was looking like the Yankees were cooked last night. I’ve been picking my spots carefully with the wife. She likes sports plenty, but watching football or baseball every single night for a month straight is probably not her ideal. So whenever I can, I’ll we’ll switch over to watch something else she’s a bit more into. This only happens between like 8:45pm and 10:30pm when our work as parents is done for the day. So last night I gave up on the Yankees. But then Aaron Judge did his thing, and the Yankees forced a game four. Which means we have four games on the board today. Beautiful.
I’ll give quick thoughts on each game and hit a DFS preview. I don’t bother with DFS on two-game slates, but a four-game playoff slate is fantastic, so this is probably my last hurrah for the year.
Mariners vs. Tigers
Bryce Miller finished the season better than he started it. It was ugly early on. He was not generating those same elite numbers with the four-seamer. The JA ERA marks were awful in those first four months. They still weren’t great
The heater went for a 48 Strike% and a .360 xwOBA allowed in the first half. In August-September it came up to 53% with a sick 16.1% SwStr%. He added a tick on the velo to get back above 95 on average. He was much more himself. He used the splitter as his secondary pitch at 24% usage with a really nice 48% Strike%. That’s an absurdly good strike rate for a splitter.
So it seems like Miller got healthy. However, the underlying pitch-level success did not translate into the box score. He gave up at least two earned runs in every single start. He really only had one successful outing (5.2 IP, 11 K vs. LAA on September 11), and even then he gave up four earned runs.
The long ball was an issue. 1.69 HR/9 for Miller this year after keeping that under control last year (1.0 in 31 GS).
But I think this guy is getting overlooked. The numbers on the year are so bad, and so much of that is because he did not have the fastball early on. And a lot of that could have had to do with a lack of health. So I’ll be sinking some funds into Miller next year. Why not start tonight? I like him in this matchup with the Tigers.
Matchups Model
Hitter Projections
Best Bet
Bryce Miller 4+ Strikeouts (-134)
Brewers vs. Cubs
Two former Pirates pitchers doing battle in the postseason. Classic stuff.
What a strange year it was for Quinn Priester. He was awful, and then elite, and then mediocre, and then really good again.
He finished the year with:
3.53 JA ERA
1.91 WHIP+
20.2% K%
7.7% BB%
11.3% SwStr%
.303 xwOBA allowed
He was about league average by the summary stats (JA ERA & WHIP+). But he was still a below-average strikeout pitcher. The heavy sinker generated a 65% GB%. That’s a really nice weapon to have. Being able to reliably keep the ball in the yard goes a long way, and that’s what we saw with Priester. He used the slider as the putaway pitch against righties (19.3% SwStr%, .265 xwOBA allowed). And due to that, he faired a bit better against them in the K% department (21.1% to righties, 19.1% to lefties). He relied more heavily on the cutter when facing lefties, and that isn’t a great pitch. The 10.4% SwStr% and 39% Ball% he posted against lefties are no good. I think he’ll continue to struggle in those spots. Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are in good spots here.
With the Cubs on the ropes here, I don’t think we’re likely to see Jameson Taillon get through the lineup more than 1.5 times. They’ll be quick to pull him. While the Cubs certainly don’t have one of the league’s best bullpens, Taillon just isn’t the guy you want to give your season too. He went for a 3.79 JA ERA on a 1.84 WHIP+ this year, posting a 19% K% and a 5.2% BB%. So he throws a bunch of strikes and doesn’t get tanked super often (.314 xwOBA, .427 SLG allowed), but against a really tough Brewers lineup it’s not likely to go super well.
Matchups Model
