Every passing year puts more Statcast data online for the masses. I’ve been slow to get on board with the new stuff. Which you wouldn’t think I would be, right? This is MLB DATA WAREHOUSE. “Data” is in the freaking title. Maybe I’m just lazy, maybe I’m inflexible. Probably both of those things. I’m not too into the new shiny new toy thing. Especially with stuff like this that seems more “fun” than “predictive”. But how would I even know until I look?
So I’ve gotten into attack angle and attack direction a bit more this weekend. It’s really cool stuff, if nothing else. The nerds and physicists (but I repeat myself) can have a lot of fun with that interactive tool they have.
It does help you immediately understand why Vlad Guerrero Jr. doesn’t hit many homers. You could figure this out just by seeing his launch angle stuff and high ground ball rates. But this takes you a step forward and shows that his ground balls aren’t just coming from mishit balls (off the lower part of the barrel); they’re coming from his swing path:
He swings mighty hard and hits it on the sweet spot of the barrel all of the time, but with the path of the bat being what it is, you’re going to get a lot of balls that hit the ground before getting through the infield.
So what I figured I’d do is model home run rates with the characteristics of the swing. I used these:
Bat Speed
Attack angle
Attack direction
Zone Contact%
The contact rate portion of that isn’t just about the swing. But I wanted do try to avoid getting a list of players who swing for the fences in a fine way, but don’t time it up with the pitch and end up whiffing so often that they can’t rack up dingers.
We get a result like this:
It may be overly simplistic, and that turns into some huge disparities in the predictions vs. the actual results. I left out walk rate, for one, which does make a difference since our target home run rate is home runs divided by plate appearances, and every walk is one plate appearance you didn’t hit a homer in.
But I’m not putting this post up for any academic rewards! And I think this gives us a decent feel for guys with big home run upside that didn’t come through on it in 2027.
Backtesting it on 2026 was a success. If we ran the same thing a year ago, here are the guys we’d have been on for the season that just finished:
Canario and Adams didn’t play enough to qualify, but seven of the eight remaining hitters did significantly increase their home run rates. So that should get you interested in reading the rest of this!
So we’re looking at the hitters that have those types of swings but came in with lower home run rates last year. Rates that could improve next year with slight improvements and more “luck”.
Riley Greene, Tigers
His +16 in the total home run differential made me question this whole idea. But when you look at the numbers, you see that it’s pretty shocking that he only hit 21 homers last year. He jammed 36 dingers in 2025 for a 5.5% HR%. And then just a 3.5% HR% last year, his worst by far since 2023 when he was still a young pup (or whatever the word is for a baby Tiger, I guess).
His attack angle is one of the highest in the game at 17 degrees. It’s an uppercut swing with a whole bunch of velocity in there.
He actually improved his strikeout rate last year, down to 26.5% from 30.7% in 2025. He walked way more (+5 points), so that took away some opportunities, but he kept on barreling it at a high rate (14.8%) and hit his fly balls mighty hard (106.9 EV90).
But just a 36% HR/Brl rate. That’s very low. The home park has a part in that, but the main culprit is probably that he hit 53% of his barrels to center field. That’s not what you want to see, but it also means that if he was contacting the ball just a little bit further up, a lot of those deep doubles or fly outs to center/left-center would go further into right field and find the seats that are closer to the plate.
And hey, he hit 15 fewer homers in 2026 than in 2025! So our +16 is kinda right on the money in this model.
Riley Greene has some of the best raw power in the game, and I think he’s in for another 30+ homer season coming up.
Garrett Mitchell, Brewers
Dedicated a whole post title to this dude recently.
The guy is the man. One of the most talented athletes in the game. Tons of bat speed. But a lower-than-ideal attack angle at 10 degrees. 56% of his batted balls were ground balls. That seems really high for a 10 degree attack, but maybe pitchers just kinda knew where to throw him pitches to avoid the power stroke.
That’s a part of this too, right? The pitchers are in control. They can throw pitches that you simply cannot hit a long way. Home runs come on mistakes, not on great pitches.
Mitchell converted just 31% of his barrels into homers. So that takes away the ground balls entirely. But again, 66% of his barrels went to centerfield. Same “problem” as Greene. And maybe that will be the theme of this post.
I put problem in quotes because a barrel to centerfield is still a great outcome. Those go for extra bases a lot, but most of those screaming barreled outs are ones hit to centerfield where there’s more room for the other team’s best outfielder to go make a play.
To me, though, it signals that Mitchell and company are one tweak away from pulling more barrels and hitting a bunch more homers.
Mitchell posted a 3.6% HR% in 2024 (69 games), and has been around 2% the last two years in limited time on the field. He’s never stayed healthy, which mutes the whole conversation. Can’t hit 25 bombs next year if he only plays 90 games again. But I don’t need to say it any more times - Garrett Mitchell has loads of upside for offensive production. And I’ll be buying next year, once again. We’re just a healthy season and a few tweaks away from this guy going 30-20.
Jo Adell, Guardians
A huge 6.5 HR% in 2025, and then it fell to 3.5% this year. One of the bigger drop-offs you’ll find.
He has no trouble with bat speed, he’s always been near the top of that leaderboard. His attack angle is right with Mitchell at 10 degrees. Which isn’t concerningly low, but the ideal spot seems to be closer to 15 degrees.
Adell switched teams, which could help him. Going from the Angels to the Guardians is an organizational/analytical upgrade, we think.
He’s had big strikeout problems in the past, but his 83% Zone Contact% was very good in 2026. He struck out just 24% of the time!
But the power numbers weren’t great. Only an 8.6% Brl% after a 17% season in 2025. What’s the next logical number in the sequence of 17% → 9%? In baseball, it’s probably like 12%. Closer to the most recent number, but somewhere between the two “extremes”.
I’m excited about Adell as a power hitter once again next year. The bad news is that the steals have gone away. He looked like a 30-30 dude coming up, but he’s slowed his role on the bases. This is another thing that the Guardians could push upward, though, right? They’re a steals-heavy team, usually. That’s more about their roster than their philosophy, but not entirely so, I don’t think. The Guardians attempted steals at an 11.8% rate, while the Angels were at 8.2%. I don’t think it’s crazy that a guy with speed like Adell could get up to 8-10 steals again next year.
He’s certainly a physical talent worth betting on.
More hitters below the paywall!