Pre-Winter Meetings MLB Rotation Ranks
Looking at some projections and ranking 2026 rotations ahead of the 2026 Winter Meetings
One thing I’ve learned in this business is that people love lists. If you’re an aspiring content creator in any way, I highly recommend that you make, post, and analyze a lot of lists. Call them power ranks. Or even come up with a new name for it. The sky is the limit.
There are people who make a few hundred dollars a month through engagement on X just by making good-looking lists of stuff and posting it.
That’s what I’m going for here. I’m here today to give you my 1-30 MLB rotation ranks ahead of the bulk of the free agency period. Things will change. There are a bunch more free agent pitchers still to be signed (although this year is a down year for impact starters in my opinion, especially with Cease already off the board), and we’ll probably even see a few more impact trades. But I wanted to give it a look now, because the weather is terrible outside and there’s not much else to do.
I like to keep things numbers-based here, and I like to automate everything I can. So I started with the STEAMER projections. I used my own little FIP calculation with the three classic inputs (K%, BB%, and HR/9), and that’s how I established the ranks at first. But I’ll do some adjusting along the way.
Tier One
There are probably about eight rotations that would make it into a large top tier. But I’d like to keep these tiers between 3-6 teams. The Dodgers are the clear #1 to me, but I’ve slapped in the Mariners and Braves in tier one to give us more to talk about.
The Dodgers have plenty of injury-prone guys in this rotation. But all the big boys finished the year healthy, and they were all big parts of the World Series win. Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani, Sasaki, Sheehan. It’s an embarrassment of riches for LA. They’ll be fine even with a couple of injuries, and Ohtani will have a shot to log 150 innings again in 2026.
Seattle has been right near the top for a few years now. Things aren’t looking quite as good as they have in the past. We have some questions about the health and performance of Bryce Miller, and Luis Castillo is a long ways away from his prime. But we still have two SP1s with Woo and Gilbert, and George Kirby has to be considered one of the best SP3s in the league. The M’s have at least three guys who would be #1’s on more than half the league.
I hesitated to include Atlanta, but I’m being very forgiving of injury stuff since it’s the offseason. The Braves should come into 2026 with Sale, Schwellenbach, and Strider all ready to roll. Waldrep, Lopez, and Holmes aren’t a bad back-half of the rotation either. I think they’re the most likely rotation here to fall apart, but yeah, it’s an elite top three when things are going right in Atlanta.
Tier Two
One pitcher makes a big difference on projected FIP. When you have a Skenes, a Skubal, or a Crochet, you’re probably ending up in the top half of the league, no matter who the rest of the guys are. I have five teams in tier two.
The Phillies would be in tier one if I felt better about the health of Zack Wheeler. But I don’t. We know he’ll miss the beginning of the season, and it’s anybody’s guess how much of his old self he’ll return with when he does get back. The guy already has his retirement plans set, and this is a pretty big-time injury he’s gone through. I think you see Wheeler come back for a season and a half of being good, but nowhere near the Cy Young caliber pitcher he’s been for the last handful of years.
So the Pirates take #4 for me. The name value, after Skenes, isn’t really there, but there are all kinds of talent and upside after him. Chandler and Jones specifically, but I like Ashcraft and Burrows quite a bit too.
The Red Sox helped themselves with the Sonny Gray trade. He and Crochet are a strong 1-2 punch. After that, though, there’s less to like. I think Connely Early can be a solid arm, but I don’t see ace upside in him. And we know that Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval aren’t anything special.
No team has lifted itself up more this offseason than the Blue Jays. The big Dylan Cease signing, and they also got Shane Bieber to come back. All of a sudden, we’re looking at a Gausman - Cease - Yesavage - Bieber - Berrios rotation. There are holes you can pick in all of those names for sure, but it’s a very strong 1-5.
A lot in New York will depend on the health of Gerrit Cole. Can he get back to anywhere near the ace he was in the past? I have my doubts about that, but he should log 100+ innings for the Yankees next year, and I can’t see a world where Cole isn’t a plus pitcher in the Majors. The Carlos Rodon health situation isn’t great, but even with these questions, we still have an ace in Max Fried and a very exciting young guy in Cam Schlittler. If all of those guys get healthy at the same time, it’s a very strong rotation.
Tier Three
We’re at the point now where there are bad pitchers at the back end of every rotation. But these big names are holding their team up. The Rangers roll into another season with a healthy Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Things could fall apart quick with an injury to one of those old heads, but for now they’re looking fine.
Who knows if we’ll ever see a healthy Shane McClanahan for an extended period again, but he’s likely to start the season in the rotation. And the Rays have depth. I like Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, and Drew Rasmussen just fine - especially since they get to go back to Tropicana Field.
Tarik Skubal has a huge impact on the projections. I had to push the Tigers down the list a number of slots manually, because it’s hard to like anybody after Skubal. That said, they don’t have any total gas can idiots in there.
Things are very bleak in Minnesota, and we could see them go full fire-sale with a trade of Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan. But while they’re on the team, it’s a solid 1-2 punch. And there are reasons to believe in Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson.
The Reds have true ceiling. Hunter Greene and Chase Burns are two of the most talented arms in the league, and Nick Lodolo was incredible in the latter part of last season. Add on a decent prospect in Rhett Lowder, and you have a rotation that could potentially be very good.
Tier Four
We cross the middle point in the league now, and we have trouble. The Marlins don’t have a reliable ace, but there’s plenty of upside if Sandy Alcantarara keeps pitching like he did late last year, and Eury Perez could be one of the best pitchers in the league as soon as 2026 with some health and slight refinements to the command. The stuff is not in question with that kid.
The Giants and Royals both have an ace, but it’s questionable after that. The Royals pitch well in that home ballpark, and they’ve gotten as much as possible out of the Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo signings. Shout out to them. But it’s really only Cole Ragans and Logan Webb to feel confident in on these two squads.
As for the Mets, they get here with young upside in Nolan McLean, and some veteran guys who don’t give up homers. Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Kodai Senga are all similar in that regard. Bad command, inefficient, but they keep the ball in the yard.
Tier Five
These are the last four teams before the giant cliff. There’s some talk about the Brewers shipping away Freddy Peralta. They’re apparently worried about the payroll and the finances. But we can’t hold that against them here. The projections just don’t really like anybody here. I will say that this rotation has a path to being a top-ten unit if Logan Henderson and Jacob Misiorowski stay healthy and throw strikes. But neither of those two are going to project very well because they’ve pitched so little in the Majors. In the case of Misiorowski, he’s only pitched well a handful of times in the Majors.
The Guardians have four guys you’re fine with being on the hill. It’s not like you’re totally smoked with any of those top four names on the bump. But none of them are great.
And the Houston dynasty is totally do. They have just Hunter Brown. It’s all bad after him.
I’m not a Shota Imanaga or Cade Horton believer, but there isn’t a truly awful pitcher in the Cubs’ projected rotation. Matt Boyd does a lot right, and Justin Steele will be back at some point. I think all of these guys have significant downsides, but there is enough depth here to keep them competitive.
Tier Six
It’s very thin at this point. The Angels have a few guys that can get outs, at least. Jose Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi, and Grayson Rodriguez give you a non-awful top three. That’s mostly dependent on Rodriguez being healthy, which seems like a long shot. We’ll see what they choose to do with Reid Detmers, but to me it’s pretty clear they should put him back in the rotation.
The Orioles will be hoping to get a full season from Kyle Bradish, and they’ll be praying that Trevor Rogers can keep the “good luck” flowing. That’s a top two you can do a lot worse than, but the organization is rough-looking after those two names.
As for the Nats, they still have upside with MacKenzie Gore. I’m a believer in Cade Cavalli, but that’s all the good I can say. They could absolutely end up with a bottom-three rotation. It’s very thin. Not a single guy you can go to the bank with.
The D’Backs will shoot up a few slots once Corbin Burnes gets back, but he isn’t projecting for enough innings right now to make it into this picture. That leaves them with a bunch of bad pitchers. It’s gross.
Tier Seven
Both of these teams recently lost their best pitcher. And what’s left is not pretty. At least the Cardinals have a handful of guys that you know are Major Leaguers. And at least the Padres have Nick Pivetta.
Tier Eight
I could have thrown the Athletics up one tier, I guess. Nobody really deserves to be tiered with the Rockies. But the screenshot is already shot! It has already been screen-shooted!
It’s all bad for these three teams. How many of these 18 names would even be on the roster of a top ten team in the league? The guys I don’t hate are Shane Smith, Jacob Lopez, Sean Burke and Chase Dollander. And we’ve gone over them in the team previews already. And by “don’t hate” I mean like… I think they can potentially go for like a 4.25 ERA or something like that.
That’s it. A ranked list. Don’t say I never did anything for you guys.