Projection Powered Player Props - March 31
New writer Stuart Durst debuts and gives us a handful of player props for the Monday slate.
Greetings everyone, my name is Stuart Durst, and going forward, I will be contributing player props to this mighty fine newsletter a couple of times a week.
I’ve been betting props daily and posting about it for the last 4 years on Twitter (@MonotoneFootbal) and look forward to continuing to do that with you guys. My love and obsession with sports started by sitting in front of the TV with my dad and watching just about every Nationals game possible from 2012-2018 and I haven’t gone back since! I look forward to combining my analysis with the great data and projections Jon has provided for all of us! Now, without further ado, let’s cash some tickets!
My personal betting style revolves around straight bets, and unit bankroll management is extremely important. Unless otherwise stated, all prices will be to win 1u. So don’t go risking the same amount on a strikeout prop as a home run longshot! Will have more volume/analysis as we get more and more data, and I look forward to utilizing all the great tools we have here at our disposal.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR
Book: BetRivers
Price: +510
Projection: 0.23
Edge: 4.1%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. jumps out in the projections as a great home run target today, and I happen to agree. Today also happens to be Vlad Guerrero Jr Silver Slugger Bobblehead day at Rodgers Park, if you're someone that cares about that. Guerrero leads the MLB in average exit velocity thus far, and should continue to absolutely smoke the ball consistently, grading out as an elite power hitter. Looking through his game log he has a ton of hard contact but no homers, seems like a great regression spot to take advantage.
As a huge Nationals fan, you're probably going to see me bet against them plenty, and I’m not sure if people are aware of how bad this bullpen can be. Soroka was up-and-down in spring training, but he’s only projected at 14.5 outs with the juice to the under, meaning Toronto batters will likely see plenty of the Nationals bullpen tonight. Nationals bullpen so far this season (after multiple great SP performances): 6 IP, 11 H, 15 R, 14 ER, 11 BB, 9 K, 5 HR.
There is a lot of variance with the Nationals bullpen along with the Michael Soroka experience, anything better than +450 is a buy price for Vladdy to go yard tonight. No better way to honor your bobble-head night than with your first homer of the season.
Kyle Tucker HR +375
Book: BetMGM
Price: +375
Projection: 0.19
Edge: 1%
Another hitter prop we’re targeting tonight is Kyle Tucker taking on the Athletics in Sacramento (still disgusting to type out). After hitting his first homer of the year in a Cubs uniform on Saturday, he followed it up with another on Sunday, and I think we make it three in a row in a very tempting matchup today.
Joey Estes also profiles as a pretty good matchup for the slugger. He allowed 23 homers in 137 innings pitched last year, ranking way below average in terms of whiff% (6th%), K% (8th%), and barrel% (14%). One of the other things you’ll notice is that he heavily relies on his fastball, throwing it over 50% of the time. Kyle Tucker happens to absolutely crush the 4FSB, slugging .667 against it last season. Getting a fastball-reliant pitcher for a heating-up Kyle Tucker sounds like a great opportunity to get some action tonight.
One of the other things that I think is going under the radar is the Athletics upgrading from one the least hitter friendly parks in baseball. A lot of data and projections still give the Athletics a small bump from that due to last year's data, and we haven’t seen that exposed yet. MGM currently has +375 and I like anything +350 or better.
Kyle Hart o3.5 K’s -118
Book: BetMGM
Price: -118
Projection 4.27
Edge: 7.6%
I was interested to see what the projections would have for Hart, and glad to see it lined up with my view. The Kyle Hart that last pitched in the majors no longer exists, with a completely new arsenal to work with after an impressive trip to the KBO. I think he will draw a lot of comparisons to Erick Fedde this season, who similarly reworked his game and came back a better pitcher (I would know, I watched all those nationals starts!)
Hart showed a lot of strikeout upside in the KBO, where he struck out batters in 157 innings while posting a 2.69 ERA. He won the Choi Dong-won Award, which honors the best starting pitcher in the league.
The other thing I like about this spot is the lack of tape or data available for the opposing team. As the information increases, the whiffs will probably decrease for Hart, but this will be a great opportunity to take advantage of the lack of information available compared to your average starting pitcher.
The Guardians are obviously not a great strikeout team to target, but this is more of a play on a line being simply too low. This is one that could absolutely backfire in our faces in a very ugly way, but I like our chances at this low benchmark to clear.
Tyler Glasnow o6.5 K’s -125
Book: DraftKings
Price: -125
Projection: 7.84
Edge: 14%
Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, and while the leash won’t be long, I’m expecting great efficiency from the Dodgers ’ starting pitchers.
In 71 Braves ABs against Glasnow he has a strikeout rate of 30% allowing just a .177 average, obviously a small sample, but many of these Braves hitters were in better form during those matchups. The Braves’ offense has gotten off to a slow start with a 42 wRC+, the second-worst in baseball. They have the second-lowest Hard-Hit rate and the seventh-highest strikeout rate. It’s easy to overreact to early-season stats, but Glasnow and the Dodgers are not the opponents to break out against.
Glasnow will have a rested Dodgers pen behind him, but after an elite 15.9 K/9 this spring, posting 9 K’s through 5 IP in his final start, I have plenty of confidence after going over in three straight games vs ATL with 10, 9, and 8 strikeouts.