Projected Powered Player Props - Opening Day!
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Intro
Welcome to a new MLB season. I’m getting ahead of things a bit and putting out the first edition of a new regular article here called Projection Powered Player Props. I even have someone else who is going to help me write these! You should be hearing from him next Monday. The goal is to get one out every Monday through Friday. Sometimes, it might be a part of the regular Slate Preview article, which you’ll see tomorrow. And there will be missed days. I have a full-time job and a family, and both of those things take precedence over my work here. So I’m still not at the point where I can guarantee everything all the time.
If you’re unaware, I have a daily projection model that projects all player stats for that day’s slate of MLB games. It’s a solid model and it translates nicely into player prop bets. So we’re running with that a bit this year.
This post will highlight the prop bets my model is recommending for that day, and we’ll give some extra thoughts and details about each play along the way. And we’ll probably throw some other fun stuff in as well.
Some disclaimers before we get started:
My model is not designed for projecting game outcomes, I do not recommend anybody use it for betting sides/totals.
I don’t guarantee profitability for any bet type. We’ve had success in the past, but sports betting is a tough game, and the books take every advantage they can get away with. I view this only as something to do for some extra enjoyment with your “fun money”. But you’re going to do what you’re going to do.
If you are interested in the process and the resources here, check out these two posts:
DraftKings League
We like to play some DFS here at MLB DW. I have a league on DraftKings that runs $5 contests most days of the week. Nothing crazy, no commitments, but just some cheap daily fun. You can join that league here if you’re into that sort of thing.
Underdog Longest Home Run Contest
Don’t get me wrong, I am not an Underdog affiliate. I work for no man! I don’t even have the app. But a few people did ask me for my input on this contest they’re running.
Apparently you can win a share of $500,000 if you play the guy who hits the longest home run of the day in one of your lineups or plays or bets or whatever they call it over there.
This is right up my alley, so here is some analysis on that.
I checked the max home run distance for every day last year where there were at least ten games played. The lowest max (the old min max!) was 387 feet. The average max was 448 feet. Let’s just add two feet of that to make things nice and round, and use 450 feet as our target number.
I’m going to keep this pretty simple. Let’s start narrowing down the list. Let’s filter it to
Players in the projected lineup tomorrow
Players who have hit a home run over 450 feet at least once since 2023
That gives us 65 names. Here’s the full list with relevant data.
That’s a lot. So let’s continue to narrow it down. To highest EV strategy here is clearly to not take a popular player. Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani are probably among the most likely players to win this, but if you pick them and it happens, you’re going to be splitting that money with so many people that it won’t even make a difference. So you want to play a less popular name.
We’ll get rid of the chalk, and then we’ll also take out hitters facing pitchers who are extremely hard to homer off of us, just to narrow it down even more. We have a handful of elite home run suppressors pitching tomorrow. That does not mean that they can’t give up a long bomb, and bullpens will be covering half of the games tomorrow, but it still makes sense to get a manageable list to choose from. Here’s a list:
Those are guys with the platoon advantage against the stars who hit at least one nuke last year, facing a pitcher who gives up some long balls, who also shouldn’t be too popular of a pick.
The guys I’d be interested in:
William Contreras
Nick Castellanos
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Luis Robert
Luke Raley
Lawrence Butler
I’m not sure if Jhonkensey Noel will be in the lineup tomorrow, but I think it’s a good bet he’ll start against lefty Cole Ragans. Ragans keeps the ball in the ballpark well, but Noel is at the top of the league in terms of raw power, and I doubt too many people pick him (although maybe that postseason home run is still fresh in people’s heads?).
Some other names that I think make sense:
Matt Wallner vs. Sonny Gray
Jarred Kelenic vs. Michael King
Jorge Soler vs. Sean Burke
Ryan Mountcastle vs. Jose Berrios
And if you want some super deep sleepers:
Michael A. Taylor vs. Jose Berrios
Luke Raley vs. Luis Severino
Jose Siri vs. Framber Valdez
Jo Adell vs. Sean Burke
Alright, that’s enough of that. I probably spent more time than needed on a super niche contest thing that I’m not even interested in participating in, but hey - don’t say I never did anything special for you!
Player Props
Let’s get into it here! Here are the model’s five favorite player prop bets for Opening Day.
Tarik Skubal Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
Book: MGM
Price: +100
Projection: 14.4 Outs
Edge: 30%
The reigning Cy Young is a horse. This will normally be a perfectly fine line for the big man, but this is Opening Day and Skubal is taking on the Dodgers. I’ve got Skubal projected for 80 pitches. That’s probably where the main edge is coming from. MGM probably thinks he’ll be closer to 90. But any kind of long inning or struggles from Skubal is likely to get him a quick hook, and the Dodgers grind out ABs better than most teams.
The projection model takes every relevant detail into consideration here, and that turns Skubal’s 80 pitches into about a five-inning outing.
Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price: +120
Projection: 1.25
Edge: 19%
The lower pitch count helps us here as well. We like being under on pitchers early in the year. Wheeler posted a low 6.6% BB% last year, and this Nationals lineup he’s likely to face likes to swing the bat (7.7% aggregate BB%). I’ve got Wheeler for 1.25 walks, which makes that +120 price appealing.
Zack Wheeler Over 3.5 Hits Allowed
Book: Caesars
Price: -142
Projection: 5.3
Edge: 19%
While the Nationals don’t walk much, they also don’t strike out much (21.6% aggregate K%). There should be a ton of balls going into play for the Phillies’ defense to pick up. And the model thinks that more than five of those will go for hits. We have to eat a -142 here, but the math still checks out.
Chris Sale Under 1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price: -120
Projection: 1.04
Edge: 18%
The reigning NL Cy Young winner posted a 5.6% BB% last year. He takes on a Padres lineup with a 7.8% aggregate BB%. That’s a tick below the league average. Sale was under 1.5 walks in 17 of his 29 starts last year, and this is likely to be one of his shorter outings of the year.
Zac Gallen Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Book: BetRivers
Price: +138
Projection: 4.26
Edge: 16%
The Cubs project to make a lot of contact this year. The aggregate K% for the Cubs projected lineup is just 21.9%, one of the lower marks on the slate. Gallen is a good pitcher, but he’s never been a guy to blow guys away (25.1% K% last year). He relies mostly on soft contact. The model holds Gallen well below five strikeouts in this one, making the +138 a very nice price.
All five top bets for right now are pitcher props. That could change as more lines become available. All of those betting resources will be refreshed tomorrow morning, so check back then to see if anything has changed. For now, the best hitter props:
Mike Trout Under 0.5 Walks (+110 on DraftKings)
Ryan Mountcastle Under 0.5 Singles (+115 at MGM)
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits (+285 at BetRivers)
Colt Keith Over 0.5 Hits (+100 at MGM)
That’s it for Opening Day player props! If any more pop up, I’ll mention them in tomorrow’s slate preview.
This article was free for all today, but before long, it will go behind the paywall, so sign up today if you haven’t already!