Projection Powered Player Props - April 1
Six player props for the first Tuesday MLB slate of the season, powered by the MLB DW daily projection model.
My new writer, Stuart, came out with a bang yesterday, going 3/4 and even hitting a home run prop.
It’s not as though we’re going to be printing cash with this stuff, but we’re betting on the model being good enough to generate a positive ROI so we can have some fun during this season and make a little bit of cash along the way.
I’m taking this article on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Here’s hoping I can outdo Stuart so I don’t look dumb.
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Hits
Book: FanDuel
Price: +370
Projection: 1.1
Edge: +8%
Kerry Carpenter 2+ Total Bases
Book: DraftKings
Price: +165
The Tigers are taking on Logan Gilbert. You’re typically not piling up a ton of hits against Logan Gilbert.
The angle here is this.
Gilbert does not walk guys
Carpenter is elite against RHP
The Mariners bullpen has just one lefty available tonight (Tayler Saucedo threw 31 pitches last night, making him very likely unavailable tonight)
We’re very likely to get 4+ PAs against righties from Carpenter. For his career, Carpenter slashes .290/.346/.547 against right-handed pitching.
You can pick your own angle here. The model really likes the 2+ hits one, but if you want to bet more on the extra base hit rather than two hits, you can grab a price around +160 for 2+ total bases. Or you can even push it to 3+ bags for +300 on DraftKings.
That’s your free play of the day. You’ll have to subscribe to get the rest!