Projection Powered Player Props - April 8
Six player props the model is pumping up for the Tuesday slate
Jon is back today to dish out some of what the projection model is liking today. It’s been a bumpy ride lately. Every day, my model saves off every bet that achieves a 10% edge or better, and then the next day it judges those bets against what actually happened. So far, it’s picked out 320 bets and has made +4.3 units for a 1.3% ROI. One point three percent baby! Why do anything else??
Things were pretty even for a while there, but the last four days have been outliers. We went +7 on Friday, -11 on Saturday, -11 on Sunday, and then +10 on Monday.
This things tracks these bet types:
Hitter hits
Hitter walks
Pitcher strikeouts
Pitcher walks
Pitcher hits allowed
And you can see the performance for each type:
I don’t think the tracker will tell us anything useful for another month or so, but if you want to believe in the early trends, you’re steering well clear of hitter walks and pitcher hits lines.
I’m not surprised to see pitcher hits lines not doing well. My model has a tough time with those. I’ve been trying to improve it, but I think at some level it needs a deeper overhaul. If you take out those two bet types, we’re at a 12.2% ROI. When you raise the bet value threshold to 15%:
Bets: 56
Net: +10.8 units
ROI: 19.2%
I’m not adjusting anything yet, we need a lot more data, but if you want to play it safe - you’d be looking for pitcher strikeouts and pitcher walks bets above a 15% value.
Here’s what I’m looking at today.
Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 Outs
Book: DraftKings
Price: -115
Projection: 15.2
Edge: 20%
Freeland has gone over 17.5 in his first two starts, and has pitched pretty well, allowing just three runs in 12.2 innings.
But this is his first start in Coors Field, and it is warm there with a game temperature of 70 degrees. That ball is going to be flying toward the gaps and maybe even over the fence a few times.
My projection is five innings, and there’s a large edge here. Bonus point is that The Bat X also likes the under here.
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