Projection Powered Player Props - April 28

Stuart Durst is back with 3 MLB props to get your week started the right way!

After a Wednesday sweep we got hit with a reverse sweep on Friday thanks to a Logan Gilbert injury and a down outing from Yamamoto. Luckily its a brand new week, and we have a chance to turn things around. Think we have a sneakily solid slate today, check out my best bets below.

Nick Martinez u17.5 outs

Odds: -110
Book: Bet365
Projection: 15.63
Edge: 15%

Was super excited to wake up and see the model was on the same page with fading Nick Martinez tonight. I played his under outs in arguably his best possible team/ballpark matchup against the Marlins, and he still couldn’t make it 18 outs. He now finds himself in Great American Smallpark, and for whatever reason that number has not adjusted. He’s 0-2 with 3 HR/7 ER allowed in 2 starts at home this season, and that ballpark just doesn’t compliment the contact/fly balls he allows.

The model has him projected for 15.63 outs tonight, and in my opinion he’s not a pitcher that should really ever be lined higher than 16.5. He’s only gone 6 innings once this season in five starts, I think that trend continues against a Cardinals offense that has been good vs right handed pitching. Martinez has allowed at least 3+ earned runs in 4 of 5 starts this season and there is enough pop in this Cardinals lineup to give him problems tonight.