Projection Powered Player Props - April 4
Stuart Durst gives us a handful of player props for the Friday MLB slate
Friday is finally here, and no better way to end a long week than with some player props fresh off the iron! After an exciting 3-1 debut to the newsletter, including a ninth inning Kyle Tucker home run, I’m looking to continue that momentum for today’s loaded Friday slate. We have a very active early slate today, so make sure to get these props in as soon as possible!
Ketel Marte o1.5 H+R+RBI
Book: DraftKings
Price: -130
Ketel Marte just signed himself a monster extension with the Diamondbacks, and I honestly think that contract will end up looking team friendly. Ketel Marte was probably one of my 5 most profitable players last season, and I love going right back to the well with him today. I also have a distinct memory of walking into Nationals park last season when Arizona was in town and Marte immediately hitting a first AB homer as I walked to my seat… maybe history will repeat itself today.
Ketel has gotten off to a fantastic start with a hit in 6/7 total games and 2+ HRRBI in 4 of his 6 starts on the season. He has been walking at an extremely high rate, making the run scored and HRRBI markets much more appealing that total bases, especially considering how Jake Irvin has gotten in trouble with walks in the past. I see a lot of different paths to victory with the switch-hitter, and that's not even bringing up the Nationals disgusting bullpen.
Jake Irvin is a pretty solid pitcher, but his splits mix up exactly with how I’ve been targeting Ketel Marte. He relies very heavily on the 4SFB and curveball to LHH, which Marte hit .346/.654 and .346/1.000 BA/SLG against last season. With a very nice starting pitcher matchup and plenty of bullpen opportunities, I love this matchup for Marte to earn some of that contract money.
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Brandon Pfaadt u1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price: +100
Projection: 1.31
Edge: 12%
I looked at pretty much every way to play Brandon Pfaadt, and settled on the under walks market. I also agree with the projections that the strikeouts are also a good look, but with how much he pitches to contact at times I like this walks angle more. Whenever they add an outs prop, I will probably be targeting the overs, considering I think he will be able to keep his pitch count down and avoid blowup spots.
The thing about this Nationals lineup is they are young and hungry, and unfortunately, when you come out aggressive, there can be some negative consequences. They are currently swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone at the highest rate in the league, with multiple guys like Dylan Crews looking fairly lost at the plate right now. Brandon Pfaadt is in prime position to capitalize as a guy who will fill up the strike zone, and Washington doesn't have any major targets to worry about right now.
In road games, Pfaadt stayed under this line in 10/16 games last year. He started the season 1/1 in a much tougher matchup against the Cubs. I expect Pfaadt to have a strong performance, and Washington isn’t a team that is scary in the walks department.
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