Projection Powered Player Props - April 16
@MonotoneFootbal gives us his favorite model-recommended prop picks for the April 16th MLB slate
Sorry for the late post, but I have some family in town until Easter, so I missed the early wave. That being said, we got lucky and there is still a fantastic late slate today. Check out my favorite props for tonight’s action!
Angels F5 Team Total o2.5
Price: -120
Book: Draftkings
The analysis: Patrick Corbin.
Gambling Twitter's favorite fade is back on the mound, providing us another opportunity to bet against the goat Patrick Corbin. While there are plenty of good ways to fade to him, I think the best value is on the Angels' first five-inning team total, especially considering his over-earned runs prop is currently set at 2.5 -150 to the over.
No single pitcher has made me more money over the last couple seasons, and the fact that the Angels offense isn’t anemic this season is the cherry on top! Last year they had a worse squad but posted 4 runs in 4IP vs Corbin. They rank in the top 9 in both OPS and wRC+ for the season and are currently 3rd with 30 HR’s.
While regression could be coming, they are currently second in the MLB in BA and slugging with runners in scoring position, which should come in handy tonight! Love getting a chance to fade Patrick Corbin!