MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - April 11

Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal) brings you four Friday player props to attack!

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MonotoneBetting
Apr 11, 2025
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We have another loaded MLB slate with plenty of betting opportunities on this fine Friday morning. Check out my best bets for today’s action!


Mitchell Parker u1.5 Walks

Price: +110
Book: Draftkings
Projection: 1.36
Edge: 13%

Mitchell Parker has been one of my favorite Nationals since he made his debut, and he finds himself in his best matchup yet against the Marlins. He started the season with two strong outings, going 6 innings against both the Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays, only allowing 1 earned run.

His style is pretty simple, he attacks. While his stuff may not be the best, he throws his four seamer over 50% of the time, and while it does have average velocity it has plenty of run. Beyond that he mixes in multiple off speed pitches with varying success, but at the end of the day his goal is to attack and induce soft contact (2.7% barrel rate this year), not strike you out.

While the projections like this play, I don’t think the public will. Parker has failed to limit the walks in both of his starts this season, but he faced much tougher opponents in the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. Miami is the least intimidating lineup in the league, and their ballpark plays to a guy like Parker’s stuff very well.

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