Projection Powered Player Props - April 2
A handful of player prop recommendations for Wednesday's slate of games
It’s Jon again for this one. This afternoon-heavy slate sneaked up on us, so I’m covering this today.
I let you down last night. We went just 2-for-6:
Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 hits ❌
Thomas Harrington over 4.5 strikeouts ❌
Corbin Burnes over 5.5 strikeouts ✅
Pavin Smith over 0.5 home runs ❌
Cal Raleigh over 0.5 home runs ❌
Matthew Liberatore over 4.5 hits ✅
The Tigers really confused us by taking Carpenter out as a defensive replacement in the sixth. He saw just 2 PAs and ended up 1/2. I knew there was a chance that he would get pinch hit for, but with just one lefty in the bullpen, I thought we were locked in for at least 3 PAs against righties. His replacement, Andy Ibanez, ended up facing a right-handed pitcher in his first AB. I have no idea why the Tigers would do that, but let’s not be complainers!
We should also probably never go with an over on a rookie making his MLB debut. Harrington looked awful. Let’s try it again today.
Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Book: DraftKings
Price: +105
Projection: 4.6
Edge: 22%
Gallen lasted just four innings and walked four in his first start. Maybe that’s just Opening Day rust and nerves, or whatever, but the truth is that Gallen has a 9% BB% since 2024. He has not had that elite command in awhile.
Dating back to last year, the K% is under 25%. He takes on the Yankees today, and while the Yanks do have some whiff-heavy hitters, they also have this tendency of knocking pitchers down early and often. I could see this being a pretty short outing for Gallen. And if it’s not, he’s not been a reliable strikeout pitcher since 2023.