Projection Powered Player Props - April 9
Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal) brings you four Wednesday props to exploit
We have an absolutely loaded slate of MLB action to dive into today. Most of my props are in the early slate, so make sure to get these props in as soon as possible!
Brandon Pfaadt u5.5 K’s
Book: DraftKings
Price: -110
Projection: 4.86
Edge: 11%
After backing Pfaadt for under walks and over on outs in his last start, I’ve been waiting to fade him against tougher competition. Pfaadt profiles as a solid mid-level pitcher that will take care of business against below-average teams, but I think we will struggle more against high-powered offenses, especially ones that can punish his weakness against LHH thus far. In a small sample lefties are crushing him:
.333 BA
.316 ISO
14% Barrel
3.44 HR/9
8 XBH
5 HRs
This is after allowing a .294/.339/.472 slash line to lefties with just a 19% strikeout rate last season. That’s dropped to 18% in this small sample, and despite mixing around his pitch mix a bit, I just don’t think he has the stuff to take down this tough Orioles lineup.
Tyler Mahle o4.5 K’s
Book: Fanduel
Price: -128
Projection: 6.1
Edge: 16%
I’ve been a fan of Tyler Mahle’s stuff for a while, but health has been his biggest enemy over these last couple of years. The question we have to ask ourselves here is whether Mahle can grab a strikeout per inning, because it’s unlikely he gets super deep in this one. The projections liked him in his last game, but I was too scared to pull the trigger after his first start. I'm back on board today with an aggressive projection of 6.16.
Mahle struggled with control in his first start of the season issuing four walks in 1.2 innings, but he bounced back against Tampa Bay with 5K’s in 5 shutout innings. The Rays really don’t strike out much, so it was a good sign to see him succeed in that matchup. Mahle did seem to mess around with his pitch splits last game, relying more on the splitter than the slider. While he was more effective getting whiffs with the slider, He has a 13.9 percent swinging strike rate and a 34.6 percent whiff rate on the pitch over the course of his career. The Cubs are a strong offense, but they are also striking out at the third-highest rate in the MLB vs RHP thus far.