Projection Powered Player Props - April 7
Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal) brings you a handful of +EV player props for the Monday slate
We have an absolutely loaded Monday MLB slate today in addition to the official end of March Madness tonight. Its a fantastic week for sports, and no better way to kick it off than with some player props!
Michael King u4.5 Hits Allowed
Book: DraftKings
Price: +105
Projection: 3.94
Edge: 16%
I already leaned the under for the prop, and seeing the model confidence is what put me over the edge here. Michael King is one of the league's best strikeout pitchers and I'm expecting another strong performance tonight.
I feel like Michael King was kind of meant for this market, and he’s the exact archetype of pitcher I look to target. When you're an elite strikeout guy that struggles with walks, a lot of your blowup outings even involve going under this number. He only made it 2.2 IP in his first start but only allowed 4 hits despite allowing 3 runs thanks to 4 walks. When you work counts and throw a lot of pitches like King does, it also means the leash could be shorter this early into the season.
The Athletics are only hitting .224 against right handed pitching this season, and while they have a couple flashy names I don’t think they have the firepower to overcome the rough matchup. King bounced back and looked fantastic with 11k’s last week, I would expect another strong outing for the strikeout machine.
Zach Eflin u1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price: +125
Projection: 0.94
Edge: 12%
It’s kind of hilarious that Zach Eflin and Logan Gilbert were both notorious for having rare 0.5 walk lines last season, and are now both sitting here lined at 1.5 for today’s slate. The projections like the under for both guys, and I completely agree. I get the matchup isn’t showing to be the best this early into the season, but losing Ketel Marte who has walked like crazy to start the season is good for this prop.
He went under in an insane 25/28 starts last season ranking out 98% percentile on baseball savant. He started the season with 1 walk vs Toronto and 0 walks vs Boston, looking like the same guy he was last season.
With a prop priced at -175 I like to look for another + expected value parlay piece to get it down to a more reasonable number. I have a slight edge on the Mets ML, so parlaying them together gets you +114 odds on Draftkings.
To get the rest of this post, along with all of the projection-powered daily resources, become a paid subscriber!