Back from a little break with three player props for today’s slate!
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases
Odds: +130
Book: B365
If you have been following along with the picks this year, you would know the Brandon Pfaadt fade train has been in full effect. While it’s been a bit more aggressive in past weeks, this Astros lineup is pretty ugly, and I would rather focus on a specific spot than just take a team market. I was really tempted by his over 5.5 hits allowed prop, considering that’s the lowest we’ve seen it in awhile. Pfaadt is having a pretty solid June, but the advanced stats are still calling for regression with his bottom 1st percentile xERA and xBA.
Christian Walker has back to back multi-hit games against his former team, and I think this matchup presents a good opportunity to do that once again. Walker started the season extremely slow, but he’s having by far his best month hitting .344/.508/.887 in July. His pitch splits are also very good for the matchup, with Pfaadt relying on a 4SFB/sinker/sweeper combo which all happen to be by far Walkers best three pitches by run value. .250/.470 vs 4SFB, .325/.429 vs SI, .300/.633 vs Sweeper. I think Pfaadt leaves once hanging and Walker takes it deep, played some HR at +475.
JP Sears o15.5 Outs
Odds: -120
Book: MGM
Projection: 16.38
Edge: 3%