Projection Powered Player Props - July 25

Stuart Durst is back with three props to end your week the right way!

While I felt like we should have had a 3-0 newsletter in our return, ill take 2-1 (Thanks Mark Kotsay). Back with three more props for today’s loaded slate, lot of tempting spots but feel very solid about our spots today. Feel free to hit me with any questions you might have!

Bryce Harper 1+ Run Scored

Odds: -120
Book: CZR

Just like with Jose Ramirez on Wednesday, I think we are getting a great price on Bryce Harper with his run scored prop compared to the rest of the market. His home run prop is currently sitting at +150, with juice on both his TB and H+R+RBI, but I honestly think run scored captures a lot of his upside best. Will Warren is at his best when he’s in the zone, but he’s really struggled with walks recently posting 3+ walks in 5 of his last 6 starts. Harper obviously has a great eye, and even if he doesn’t get a hit he can’t still find himself on base in position to cash his H+R+RBI prop.

The other good news is he’s coming in on fire, hitting .323/.710/1.180 in the month of July. While he’s coming in hot (run scored in 6/L7), Warren hasn’t looked as great this month, with a 16% barrel rate and .287 average to left handed hitters. He’s struggled with hard contact at the top of this Phillies lineup can definitely deliver that. I think it’s mostly likely that Harper drives himself in tonight, but I like how many paths to victory we have here.

MacKenzie Gore o5.5 Strikeouts

Odds: -130
Book: B365
Projection: 6.16
Edge: 1.5%