MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - July 30

Stuart Durst is back with three more props for today's slate!

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MonotoneBetting
Jul 30, 2025
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Action starts in 30 minutes! Check out my three favorite props for today’s busy day of baseball. Feel free to hit me with any questions you might have.

Jose Ramirez 1+ Run Scored

Odds: -110
Book: MGM

Anytime I can get Jose Ramirez against a bad left handed pitcher, I’m going to run to the window. Ramirez is crushing everyone, but coming in hitting .342/.530 against lefties this season (after .348/.695 last season). Freeland has been better away from Coors, but the combination of recent form & Ramirez #’s against his pitch splits are more than enough to compensate for that.

I’ve already talked about it multiple times this year, but Jose Ramirez continues to be mispriced in the runs scored market compared to the rest of his other batter props. Ramirez, like most of the great hitters in the game, is constantly priced at 2.5 HRBBI with his total bases prop almost never being priced better than -110, yet there is seemingly no respect in the run scored markets. It feels like the implication would be he doesn’t have a good eye, but his 63rd percentile walk rate is very respectable, and he’s coming in with 10 free passes over his last 15 games. He’s one of the highest floor players in the league, and constantly finds ways on base to help his team. There is also a pretty big disagreement in market on his home run price, with MGM posting +425 vs +285 on DK. Going to grab some of that and just hope he drives himself in and saves us all some time.

Zack Litell o2.5 Runs Allowed

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