Projection Powered Player Props - June 2

Stuart Durst has his favorite props for today's slate!

Looking for a bounceback after a rough Friday slate (where betting a Marcus Semien under immediately lead to his best game of the season). The baseball overlords didn’t give us much to work with today, but here are my two favorite spots for tonight’s slate.

Dustin May u17.5 Outs

Price: -115
Book: Draftkings
Projection: 17.07
Edge: 2.6%

Smaller edge here but I do like the argument for unders on Dustin May in a tougher matchup against a New York team that's 6th in WRC+ vs RHP over the last month. The Mets are a hard team to get deep into games against because they work counts, hit well, and don't strike out a ton. The Mets are coming into this game averaging the 6th most pitches per plate appearance in the MLB, creating some tough long innings for opposing pitchers. Dustin May has been solid this season, but he’s been allowing more power while also leaning more on the strikeouts, which isn't the most efficient for getting through innings easily. If is he continues his 8+ strikeout streak he’s likely going to need to fight into some deep counts.

May has stayed under this number in 5 of his last 7 games with his only overs coming against the Diamondbacks both times. The model also likes May for 3+ walks at +155, which I played a small bet on and would obviously be great for under outs prop here. He has 2+ walks (-190) in 7/10 starts and 3+ (+155) in 4/10.