Projection Powered Player Props - June 27

Stuart Durst has 3 MLB props to end your week the right way!

After a nice 3-0 Wednesday I’m back with three more player props for today’s loaded slate. Feel free to hit me with any questions/comments below!

Brayan Bello o1.5 Walks -145

Odds: -140
Book: B365
Projection: 2.2
Edge: 5%

I try to avoid the heavy juice, but the Walks market is one I’ve had the most success in doing so. I have a long history with Brayan Bello, going from a guy that I was very invested in for best ball to someone I’ve faded fairly consistently. Overall I’m just not a believer anymore, and despite a couple strong starts I think regression is coming. When you look at his awesome month of June he’s posted 4 starts with 25 IP, 22K’s, a .211 OBA, while allowing 7 ER (10 total). That being said, the underlying stats are really not impressing me with a .274 xBA, 24% chase rate, 18% whiff rate, 18 K%, and still a 10.8% walk rate despite this being his best stretch.

Bello has over 1.5 walks in 8 of 12 games this season, and quite frankly anytime I can get a 1.5 number I’m going to be interested. The Blue Jays aren't the best team at walking (16th the vs RHP) but the lineup has had some good success against him in the past, which could lead to him dancing around the zone a bit more. This Blue Jays team just doesn't strike out much, and I don't see him having success in the zone tonight. Think we see a bit more of the old Bello control when he can't get the early outs, and his outs number being 17.5 juiced to the over is nice for giving us more opportunities late.

Tomoyuki Sugano FADE

Under 17.5 Outs -120 (DK)
Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed -110 (DK)