MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - June 11

Stuart Durst is back with three more props for today's slate!

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MonotoneBetting
Jun 11, 2025
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We have all day baseball, with picks starting at 4 PM (EST) today! We put together another winning newsletter on Monday and I’m looking to carry that momentum into today! Check out my favorite bets below and feel free to hit me with any questions!

Manny Machado o1.5 HRRBI

Price: -135
Book: Bet365

This is one of those spots that I definitely think should be priced at 2.5. Machado is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, hitting .345 L15/.400 L7 (up to .325 on the season). He’s also covered this prop with some pretty insane consistency, going over 1.5 in 16 of his last 18 games. Machado is currently 90th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, Hard Hard%, and Average Exit Velocity. An on-fire Manny Machado in the center of a strong lineup is definitely some I’m looking to back tonight.

The Dodgers will be throwing a bullpen game with Casparius opening and Justin Wrobleski, who is expected to be the bulk innings reliever. He’s struggled in his limited MLB action, and Machado has been especially successful against LHP this season (.314 AVG/1.045 OPS). Wrobleski relies on his 4-seam/cutter/curveball/sinker combo, which Machado is currently hitting .300 or better against all 4. Dodgers saved their Bullpen thanks to yesterday's odd game management, but I don't think that will be enough to slow down Machado today.

Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Scored

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